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College Football Bowl Projections 2018: Playoff Shakeup in Week 8

By John Mitchell

WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - OCTOBER 20: Isaac Zico #7 of the Purdue Boilermakers makes a touchdown catch in the end zone as Kendall Sheffield #8 of the Ohio State Buckeyes defends at Ross-Ade Stadium on October 20, 2018 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - OCTOBER 20: Isaac Zico #7 of the Purdue Boilermakers makes a touchdown catch in the end zone as Kendall Sheffield #8 of the Ohio State Buckeyes defends at Ross-Ade Stadium on October 20, 2018 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) /
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December 29

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. UCF
Noon ET, ESPN – Atlanta, Georgia

January 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
1 pm ET, ESPN – Glendale, Arizona

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: Ohio State vs. Washington
5 pm ET, ESPN – Pasadena, California

Allstate Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Texas
8:45 pm ET, ESPN – New Orleans, Louisiana

The skinny

The SEC getting a projected four teams into the New Year’s Six means that matchups become a little bit difficult and the Peach Bowl ends up grabbing UCF for a second year in a row. UCF rolled past ECU 37-10 yesterday without star quarterback McKenzie Milton. The Knights are still the easy favorite to earn the Group-of-Five’s New Year’s Six bowl bid, and they are a few more upsets away from garnering serious playoff consideration.

Next week’s Georgia and Florida matchup in Jacksonville should not be considered a New Year’s Six elimination game; instead, I think there’s a pretty clear path for both teams to end up earning a bid regardless of the outcome. It is likely to be the deciding game for the SEC East, although Kentucky will certainly have something to say about that. I see Georgia as the most likely winner, but it would take an upset to keep Florida from going 10-2 after that. They have three straight home games against Missouri, South Carolina, and Idaho before finishing on the road against Florida State. A 10-2 Florida team, with a win over LSU, would be tough to keep out.

I came close to projecting Oklahoma to be the Big 12 champion again because I just don’t trust Texas, but with the Longhorns on a bye week I decided to hold chalk with that projection for now. The Sooners would likely be favored in a rematch between the two in the conference title game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Longhorns stumbled a couple of times on the way down the stretch to spoil a potential Red River rematch.

LSU is likely to be in the top four of the inaugural college football playoff rankings when they are released on Oct. 30, but I still find it difficult to believe that there’s a path to the playoff for the Tigers without beating Alabama in two weeks. Had LSU not stumbled on the road against Florida, they would have been a tough team to keep out even if they fell to the Crimson Tide in two weeks as long as they won out from there.

Ohio State’s loss to Purdue drops them to the Rose Bowl, which would be a great consolation prize for most teams. The Buckeyes, however, were the odd team out of the playoff last season due to a baffling road blowout loss to Iowa that pushed them to Pasadena, and that narrative could be repeating in 2018 after their 29-point loss to the Boilermakers.

Washington takes advantage of Oregon’s loss to jump back to the Rose Bowl as the projected Pac-12 champion. The PAC-12 North may not be decided until the Apple Cup, though.

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