College Football Bowl Projections 2018: Playoff Shakeup in Week 8
December 29
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
4 or 8 pm ET, ESPN – Dallas, Texas
Alabama continued their steamrolling of their schedule with a 58-21 win over a progressing Tennessee team, led once again by a brilliant performance by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The sophomore quarterback is as close to a Heisman lock as you can get in October with numerous NCAA records on pace to fall on the strength of his left arm.
A heavyweight bout in Baton Rouge is set in two weeks in what will easily be the Crimson Tide’s biggest challenge to date, but even a dominant defense like LSU will find the sledding tough against the offensive firepower Nick Saban’s team boasts. Tua has embarrassment-of-riches at the skill positions to get the football to, and is routinely given plenty of time to pick apart secondaries thanks to a dominant offensive line.
Michigan takes advantage of Ohio State’s misery to jump into the projected playoff field this week. The Wolverines have looked like the Big Ten’s best team for several weeks now, though, so it was time for Harbaugh’s crew to jump up. Michigan went on the road this week and mauled rival Michigan State in East Lansing, holding the Spartans to under 100-yards of offense in a 21-7 win. The win was Michigan’s seventh straight since the season-opening loss to Notre Dame in South Bend.
Michigan has leaned on their defense, which has been the best unit in college football this season. The offense has done just enough to get by, relying on the legs of Karan Higdon on the ground and for Shea Patterson to be more of a game manager. The Wolverines will still have to get through Ohio State on the road at the end of the season in order to make their playoff dreams a reality.
No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl:
4 or 8 pm ET, ESPN – Miami, Florida
Clemson moved through their toughest challenge left on the regular season docket with relative ease, blowing out NC State 41-7 at home. Freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence acquitted himself nicely in a big game, taking care of the football and throwing for over 300 yards and a touchdown in the win. No one has an easier path to the playoff than the Tigers with it being such a down year for the ACC.
A couple of tricky road games remain against Florida State and Boston College, but it would take a huge upset for Clemson to not finish the regular season undefeated, and there doesn’t appear to be a team from the Coastal that would provide a serious challenge to the Tigers in the conference championship game.
If Clemson has the easiest road, then Notre Dame has the second easiest path into the College Football Playoff, and they get the added bonus of not having to play in a conference championship game. The Irish had the week off following a near miss at home against Pittsburgh to sort out a few things, but much like their counterparts in this projected Orange Bowl, it would take a big upset for the Irish to not run-the-table the rest of the way.
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Notre Dame does still have to get through road games at Northwestern and USC, and Florida State and Syracuse could provide somewhat of a resistance in South Bend. Brian Kelly’s offense looked totally different for three weeks upon handing the reins to Ian Book, but the Irish offense struggled in a narrow win over Pitt. They’ll look to get back on track this week at home against Navy as they attempt to take another step toward their first playoff berth.