In his first year, Dan Mullen lifted Florida football from a sub .500 season into the New Year’s Six. Here’s why you should watch the Peach Bowl matchup with Michigan.
The committee badly fumbled this matchup. With the Sugar and Rose Bowls set, the committee was left with four teams to assign to two bowls: Michigan, UCF, Florida, and LSU. And out of those four, they pulled the two least compelling matchups.
We could have seen the first ever Michigan-LSU game, with two storied programs facing off on the gridiron for the first time. That would have left us with UCF-Florida, an intriguing in-state matchup that in the very least would have allowed the Knights to claim a state championship in 2018 if they were able to overtake the Gators.
Instead, we are left with yet another Michigan-Florida game, which is beginning to become a yearly exercise.
This will be the third time in the last four years these teams have met, and the fourth bowl game matchup between the two since 2003; it’s easy to see why enthusiasm is mild for the Gators and Wolverines meeting in Atlanta.
Michigan sports a perfect 4-0 record against Florida – they most recently knocked off the Gators in the season opener in Arlington last year. They also rolled past Florida 41-7 in the 2016 Citrus Bowl.
The Wolverines are obviously disappointed entering the Peach Bowl after spending much of the second-half of the season among the Top 4. Am embarrassing loss to rival Ohio State, their seventh straight defeat to the Buckeyes, ended their hopes of making the playoff or capturing the Big Ten.
Instead, Michigan was relegated to the Peach Bowl, and while it’s still a New Year’s Six berth and a step up from the 8-5 season a year ago, the familiar refrain remains of Jim Harbaugh‘s inability to get over the Urban Meyer hurdle and win the big one in Ann Arbor.
A 9-3 season for the Gators in Dan Mullen’s first season in Gainesville was a pleasant surprise for a team coming off of last season’s 4-7 campaign. Improvement was expected this season, but Mullen getting Florida to this level this quickly should be viewed as a sign that he can get the Gators back to competing for SEC and National Championships.
This will represent Florida’s first New Year’s Six berth since the playoff was instituted, and their first berth in an equivalent bowl game since 2012.
While this matchup feels a bit stale, there’s still plenty of reasons to watch this year’s Peach Bowl, with two of the sport’s premier programs meeting in Atlanta.
Here’s why you should be watching:
3. Two strong defenses square off
Points will be at a premium in the Peach Bowl with two outstanding defenses on the field. The opening over/under is just 50.5 according to oddsshark.com, and I fully expect that number to drift lower and lower as we approach kickoff at the end of the month.
Michigan, even after giving up 62 points to Ohio State, ranks 5th in defensive S&P+. Florida slipped a bit down the stretch as well, and finished the season ranked 26th in defensive S&P+.
The Gators have been more inconsistent, but they have shown the ability to be elite on defense, particularly in wins over Mississippi State and LSU. They are strong on standard downs, and if they can get Michigan into obvious passing situations, they can get after Shea Patterson and force some havoc plays – Florida ranks 19th in the country in havoc play percentage, which is defined as a play ending with tackle-for-loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.
Michigan ranks 18th in Havoc plays, and will hope to also keep Florida off of standard downs so that they can pin their ears back and get after Feleipe Franks, and hopefully cause him to make some mistakes.
There are loads of talent on both defenses, with each sporting future pros across the depth chart. Even with Rashan Gary sitting out, Michigan still has the likes of Devin Bush and Chase Winovich, who are capable of impacting the game in big ways.
For Florida, the players to watch are defensive end Jachai Polite and defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, both of which could be first round picks in the 2019 draft.
2. How does Michigan bounce back?
Michigan opened as a seven point favorite in the Peach Bowl against Florida, but a lot of times non-playoff bowl games come down to something as simple as which team has the most motivation to actually play in the game.
For Florida, the motivation is clear. The Gators are eager to return to national prominence and announce themselves as serious contenders in the SEC in 2019. They could do that by getting a 10th win in a New Year’s Six bowl game over Michigan.
But what is Michigan’s motivation? The Wolverines were emasculated by their bitter rivals and saw their playoff and conference championship hopes aggressively ripped from their grasps. Harbaugh’s tenure in Ann Arbor has been plagued by an inability to capture a Big Ten Championship, and he’s now 0-4 against Urban Meyer.
Rashan Gary has already decided to sit out the bowl game, will other draft-eligible Michigan prospects follow suit? Guys like Devin Bush and Chase Winovich are potential first round prospects who could decide to follow Gary’s lead and begin preparation for the NFL Draft.
Michigan seems to have the better team, but will they have the requisite motivation to not sleepwalk through the game in Atlanta? Or will they struggle to get over the Ohio State loss and fall in the Peach Bowl, raising some serious questions heading into 2019?
1. Florida could get a glimpse of their QB of the future
By all accounts, Feleipe Franks has shown improvement from his freshman-to-sophomore season in Gainesville, growing and developing under noted QB-whisperer Dan Mullen. Franks was demonstrably better in 2018 than he was in 2017, but his struggles in the biggest games against the better defenses still leaves fans wondering if he is the right man for the job going forward.
Franks’ four worst games of the season came against Kentucky, LSU, Georgia, and Missouri, which were not coincidentally four of the best defenses he faced all season long. It’s also no coincidence that the Gators went 1-3 in those contests.
Florida fans are eager for an extended look at true freshman QB Emory Jones, and Mullen has wisely managed his games played to allow him to retain his redshirt this season even if he plays in the bowl game.
The former four-star recruit has shown flashes of brilliance, most notably getting an extended look against Idaho a couple of weeks ago. He’ll have an extra month of preparation to get the playbook down, and he’ll almost certainly have some packages against the Wolverines.
Franks will get the start because he has earned that, particularly with strong play over the final three games of the regular season to clinch Florida’s spot in the New Year’s Six. If he struggles, however, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mullen give an extended look to Jones.
If Jones plays well, then that could open the door for a fierce QB competition in the Swamp heading into 2019.