Todd Graham takes over for the departed Nick Rolovich. After winning the division in 2019, can Hawaii football maintain its position atop the MWC West?
Last year Hawaii had a roller-coaster season that opened with a 2-1 record against Pac-12 opponents and ended with a trip to the Mountain West championship game. Over the course of the campaign, the Rainbow Warriors won 10 games for the first time since 2010 but also dropped five contests along the way to fall out of Group of Five contention for a New Year’s Six bid.
When they lost to Boise State in the MWC title game, it officially eliminated a Hawaii team from New Year’s Six consideration that was already mathematically out of the picture. That does not mean the season was a bust in Honolulu, but maintaining that level of success will come down to some major adjustments.
After the 10-win campaign, the musical chairs of the coaching carousel led Nick Rolovich to take the head coaching gig at Washington State. Taking his place is Todd Graham, the former head coach at Rice, Tulsa, Pitt, and Arizona State with a 95-61 record over 12 seasons leading programs. The Rainbow Warriors lucked into an experienced coach with a proven track record to replace the departed Rolovich.
But even with an experienced coaching staff in place, transitions are never easy. That is doubly true in the midst of the novel coronavirus pandemic, which eliminated spring practice opportunities and put even more pressure on the team to adjust rapidly on the fly.
Can Hawaii overcome these potential setbacks to remain atop the MWC West and return to the conference championship game? Let’s dive in to look at the offense and defense at Hawaii before breaking down the 2020 Rainbow Warriors schedule and making some predictions on how the next campaign will play out.
New-look offense will get some tweaks
New offensive co-coordinators G.J. Kinne and Tony Hall will tweak the Hawaii offense slightly, instilling more of a run-and-gun look out of the shotgun rather than the run-and-shoot from the pistol that defined the Rolovich/Brian Smith offenses of the past few years. That should allow the veteran personnel in Honolulu to adjust rather swiftly to the coaching change.
One player who will certainly benefit from the shift is junior running back Miles Reed, who will get more opportunities to carry the ball. Reed will have to step up his productivity, because change-of-pace back Fred Holly remains in the transfer portal. With the increased workload, Reed could eclipse 1,000 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns this season.
He will benefit from an offensive line that returns all five starters from a group that ranked second in the Mountain West in tackles for loss allowed. Look out especially for left tackle Ilm Manning, who started all 15 games last season and finished as an all-Mountain West second team selection.
Focusing on quarterback Chevan Cordeiro
The most important player in any variation on a pass-heavy spread concept like the run-and-gun is obviously the quarterback. Last year, Cole McDonald led the Mountain West in passer efficiency even as he threw more interceptions and played more inconsistently at times. That inconsistency, though, allowed new starter Chevan Cordeiro to get some meaningful reps in 2019.
Over the past two seasons, Cordeiro has attempted 169 passes. Completing 99 for 1,291 yards and 14 touchdowns, his stats fall right in line with where McDonald was as an underclassman. If he can adjust to the full-time starting role quickly, there should be little if any dropoff at the position.
Cordeiro also benefits from the return of Jared Smart at receiver and an infusion of talent through transfers. Former Texas Tech tight end Tyler Carr and former North Texas wideout Rico Bussey both come to the island this year to fortify the receiving corps.
Returning talent not lacking on defense
Hawaii returns far more defensive talent than offensive productivity from last season’s squad. They are especially strong on the back end, where the secondary returns pretty much everyone of substance besides Ikem Okeke. Look out especially for redshirt sophomore Kai Kaneshiro, who played 10 games last year in a reserve role and tied Okeke for the team lead in interceptions.
The defensive line is undersized, with nose tackle Mason Vega checking in at only 275 pounds and defensive end Derek Thomas tipping the scales at 225 pounds. That could cause some problems in the transition, though both are sound technical players. Vega and Thomas will need to lead an otherwise young group comprised of freshmen and sophomores.
Between the two groups, the linebacking corps boasts solid depth. Darius Muasau will likely line up alongside either or both of Paul Scott and Jeremiah Pritchard depending on what kind of look the defense gives opponents.
Focusing on the new defensive scheme
Speaking of that defensive look, that is something likely to change in interesting ways this year. After the Rainbow Warriors operated a base 4-2-5 last season, Victor Santa Cruz and Jacob Yoro take over as co-defensive coordinators this season and plan to instill a double eagle flex defense — something you might also know by the Desert Storm moniker that graced the Dick Tomey defenses at Arizona in the 1990s.
In many ways, this defense patterns well with the personnel at Hawaii. It looks similar to a 4-2-5 defense, allowing the coaches to implement it without too much difficulty even despite the dearth of practice time.
Will this subtle but significant shift in defensive philosophy help Hawaii improve on that side of the ball after ranking 96th in yards allowed and 98th in points conceded last year? Only time will tell, but the hope is that this defensive versatility will allow the Rainbow Warriors to confound opponents in the Mountain West and beyond.
How will Hawaii football fare in 2020?
As of now, Hawaii only has 12 games on their schedule. (Due to their extensive travel, the NCAA allows Hawaii and opponents that play at Hawaii to schedule a 13th game for financial purposes.) FCS Fordham canceled their contest at Aloha Stadium, leaving a blank in the schedule between Pac-12 dates against UCLA and Oregon.
Losing an FCS opponent isn’t necessarily going to break Hawaii’s schedule this season, and they could go 2-1 against their Power Five opponents once again this year. They also have the benefit of playing both Nevada and Boise State at home, though they have to play all three California State University system schools (Fresno State, San Jose State, and San Diego State) on the road.
What’s next for Hawaii?
Just as they did in 2019, the Rainbow Warriors open 2020 with a showdown against Arizona. Last year Hawaii survived a 45-38 shootout at home despite coughing up six turnovers. That carelessness won’t cut it this year when Hawaii travels to Tucson to take on the Wildcats. Cordeiro will face a tough test in the desert, but it will be especially interesting to see how the Desert Swarm defense fares against the school where it first became famous.
Prediction: 7-5, 4-4 Mountain West
Hawaii has a great shot to take down both Arizona and UCLA to start the new campaign, but their unbeaten record will likely come to an end when they travel to Eugene to face College Football Playoff contender Oregon at Autzen Stadium on September 19. New Mexico State offers the chance to go 3-1 in non-conference play.
In the Mountain West, Hawaii projects as a midlevel team. Boise State and Air Force offer tough interdivisional tests, while games in California against Fresno State and San Diego State could also present tough hurdles to overcome. The best guess here is that the Rainbow Warriors split their conference slate and comfortably reach bowl eligibility — even if they can’t find a replacement for Fordham — but regress to the mean in terms of the divisional race.