Projected final 2020 College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings after Week 16

We have already seen the College Football Playoff selection committee downvote a Group of Five team through no fault of their own. Over the past few weeks, the committee punished Cincinnati by moving them from No. 7 to No. 9 due to games that were canceled in the midst of a pandemic. After COVID-19 issues at Coastal Carolina forced the cancellation of the Sun Belt title game, the Chanticleers could face similar punishment from a committee hell-bent on twisting their logic to keep Group of Five teams out of contention.

Schedule issues are often cited for neutralizing Group of Five teams in the Top 25. The Chanticleers already have two wins over teams ranked by the committee, including a game scheduled on short notice against BYU. While their overall schedule might be less tough going undefeated in a Power Five conference, this season reveals the limitations of going off strength of schedule.

Depending on the computer you ask, Coastal Carolina’s schedule is not appreciably weaker than the biggest names in the College Football Playoff hunt. Look for the selection committee to treat both the Chanticleers and Louisiana like they did Baylor and TCU in 2014 when the Big 12 split the conference title.