How much does recruiting impact who makes the College Football Playoff?

Evaluating the 2019 College Football Playoff against recruiting figures

Like the year before, 2019 made things relatively easy for the College Football Playoff selection committee. Three Power Five champions finished with undefeated regular seasons. All three boasted recruiting averages over the previous five years that fell more than 6.75 points above the median. Even as this was the first year where Alabama missed the Playoff, the four teams that reached the semifinals combined all enjoyed increasingly strong recruiting classes relative to the rest of the FBS.

Interestingly, LSU made the field and won it all in 2019 despite the fact that their rolling recruiting averages dipped below eight points over the median for the first time since the start of the College Football Playoff. LSU’s title in 2019 was due in large part to the sublime talent of a Heisman-winning quarterback who was originally recruited by Ohio State, raising serious questions about how recruiting is hardly an exact science and how scheme and coaching can play a huge role in whether even the most talented players succeed or fail.

At the same time, the widening gulf in the numbers between those that qualify for the College Football Playoff and those who comprise the median demonstrates that recruiting cannot be completely discounted as a key determinant of success.

Wins and losses still prove the most salient dividing line in any given season between the haves and the have-nots, but the talent amassed by a team can help sort out a shortlist of contenders before a game has even been played.

Two precedents — that of teams with one loss trumping teams with two losses, and teams with conference championships holding greater sway than those without — worked in lockstep to hand Oklahoma the No. 4 seed in the 2019 semifinals. The Sooners pipped Pac-12 champion Oregon based on fewer losses, while Georgia lost out without a conference title to their name.

It was an easy out for the committee that was bolstered by a solid recruiting profile at Oklahoma. The talent amassed by the Sooners for the 2019 season graded 6.76 points on average above the median. While this made Lincoln Riley’s team the obvious choice, though, was not its recruiting marks but that one hovering in the loss column.

As in the previous two years, only six teams crossed the threshold of recruiting eight points or more above the median. While LSU fell out of the ranks of those elite recruiters, Clemson’s rise allowed the Tigers to take their place on the list. While Ed Orgeron’s team got the better of Dabo Swinney’s crew in the battle of the Tigers for the national title, recruiting at the two schools headed in opposite directions.

Georgia narrowly missed the Playoff as one of the elite six. With two losses, Alabama also fell out of contention. The biggest bust, however, continued to be USC. Despite once again boasting a five-year recruiting average among the top four teams in the nation, the Trojans missed out on the College Football Playoff for a fifth straight season. The downturn of the west coast powerhouse occurred despite relative stability in the coaching ranks, with Clay Helton coaching his fourth full season in 2019.

That backslide in Los Angeles explains in large part why the Pac-12 has struggled to reach the College Football Playoff consistently. While Oklahoma carried the Big 12 by virtue of using their superior talent to overwhelm the league, the Trojans failed to find success in similar fashion. Recruiting talent can put a team on the radar, but talent alone does not determine who ultimately lands in one of the top spots.