How much does recruiting impact who makes the College Football Playoff?

Evaluating the 2020 College Football Playoff against recruiting figures

The unprecedented chaos of the 2020 season strained the credulity of the logic employed from week to week by the College Football Playoff selection committee. Sometimes quality losses mattered, sometimes quality wins mattered, and with little to no intersectional play there was a paucity of data with which to parse out relative conference strength. Losses were damning, until they weren’t, because what really mattered in many regards was how a team was playing in the moment.

In short, it was a season tailor-made to skew more heavily toward perceptions about a team’s talent and whether a team “deserved” to earn a coveted semifinal spot.

It was also the first time in seven seasons that the College Football Playoff featured three teams that fell in the sweet spot above the threshold of 8.14 points above the median recruiting average that has divided national champions from the hoi polloi of the sport since 2014. Undefeated Ohio State and Alabama ranked first and second respectively in average recruiting profile against the margin, while Clemson’s pushed above that magical number for the first time.

Like other seasons, the top three spots were relatively obvious for the committee. In a year where teams played a divergent number of games, though, wins and losses alone couldn’t separate the two teams in the running for the final spot.

Over the previous five seasons, Notre Dame amassed a team that on average is a half-point better than Texas A&M. Both teams suffered a single loss to one of the juggernauts that made the College Football Playoff with ease. The Fighting Irish, though, had previously defeated the Clemson team that won the rematch in the ACC championship game. Since Texas A&M had no chance to avenge their earlier loss to the Crimson Tide, the Aggies got no benefit of the doubt for their defeat.

Only one other team boasted a recruiting profile falling within the range of past College Football Playoff champions. Georgia lost the SEC East to Florida, dropping two games and falling to No. 9 in the final rankings. In this case, the lack of a conference title game appearance hampered the Bulldogs much as it did their SEC West counterpart in College Station.

USC, despite only boasting one loss on their record and featuring the only other five-year recruiting average sitting higher than eight points above the median, was undone by a Pac-12 championship game loss to an Oregon team that technically finished second in the their division. Had the Trojans won that game, their recruiting profile would have put Clay Helton’s crew into the discussion as an undefeated Power Five champion. Just as Ohio State got the benefit of the doubt, the Trojans would have made a lot more noise at 6-0 and with a conference title in hand than they did with a blemished record and only a division crown to show for their troubles.

Beyond Alabama and Ohio State, no other Power Five teams finished with undefeated records. Rather than rewarding excellence, the committee revealed that their predilection toward rewarding loaded programs was exposed as never before. The five-year recruiting rankings of 8-0 American Athletic Conference champion Cincinnati (0.40 points above median), 7-0 Mountain West champion San Jose State (3.60 points below median), and 11-0 Sun Belt champion Coastal Carolina (5.51 points below median) reinforced the decision to prevent any of the three undefeated Group of Five programs from getting a shot.