2021’s teams most likely to make first College Football Playoff appearance

AMES, IA - OCTOBER 10: Tight end Charlie Kolar #88 of the Iowa State Cyclones is forced out of bounds by defensive back Eric Monroe #11 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and defensive back Alex Hogan #27 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half of the play at Jack Trice Stadium on October 10, 2020 in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
AMES, IA - OCTOBER 10: Tight end Charlie Kolar #88 of the Iowa State Cyclones is forced out of bounds by defensive back Eric Monroe #11 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and defensive back Alex Hogan #27 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half of the play at Jack Trice Stadium on October 10, 2020 in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images) /
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Boise State football could become the first Group of Five team to earn a CFP bid in 2021. (Photo by Gabe Mayberry/USA TODAY Sports)
Boise State football could become the first Group of Five team to earn a CFP bid in 2021. (Photo by Gabe Mayberry/USA TODAY Sports) /

5. Boise State

Before you scoff at the notion of the Broncos becoming the first Group of Five team to make the CFP, consider the scenarios that could easily play out this upcoming fall.

Boise State would have to run the table and do so in a convincing fashion. That means piling up big numbers, scoring bunches of highlight-reel touchdowns, and dominating its Mountain West competition en route to an undefeated season.

Before that, Boise State would need to win its non-conference matchups, including a home date with the Big 12’s Oklahoma State. The Cowboys don’t often face quality non-conference opponents on the road, and the team is replacing several important All-America playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.

If Boise State pulls off a win on the blue turf against OSU and the Cowboys turn around and perform well later in the season (think of Iowa State last year after falling to Louisiana in the season opener), the Broncos’ stature looks better and better to a CFP Committee if several other power conference leaders get one or two losses by season’s end.

New head coach Andy Avalos is keen to prove that he’s a worthy successor of departed coach Bryan Harsin, who had compiled four consecutive seasons with 10+ wins before 2020 in Boise.