It’s August, which can only mean one thing for college football fans: hope springs eternal while fall camps get underway.
Many head coaches are fresh off conference media days in which they are quick to talk about how excited they are for the season. Star players are immediately placed on a pedestal based on their previous year’s performance, and everyone is looking for who can be the “next big thing” to fill the shoes on campus of a departed NFL draftee.
The 2021 season will provide a sense of normalcy
The preseason media polls are tabulated, while publications abound with preseason Top 25 rankings based on last season’s record and a hunch.
Last year’s results may be especially tough to base 2021 predictions, however, given the stop-and-start nature of action and the differences between conferences.
While some teams were on the field since late August or early September, others didn’t play a snap until two months later. Others had players opt out early if they even suited up at all, and everyone had some sort of new game day procedures (and not to mention COVID-19 testing protocols) to work around.
It’s difficult to sort through the real substance and the phony pretenders at this time of the year, but we’re here to help.
Here are the most underrated and overrated teams in each Power Five conference for the 2021 football season:
Big 12
Most Overrated: Texas Longhorns
The “most overrated” designation could be an annual award handed to the Longhorns during this time of year. It just comes with the territory — Texas has a habit of underperforming after an offseason filled with high expectations from the fanbase, media, and from, well, just about everybody.
Texas is listed as No. 21 by ESPN and No. 20 by Athlon Sports in preseason rankings, and I just don’t see it. The Longhorns lose their longtime, stable starting quarterback in Sam Ehlinger in addition to some standouts on defense like defensive end Joseph Ossai and defensive tackle Ta’Quon Graham, all of whom went in last spring’s NFL draft.
This squad lost three Big 12 games last year and won two others (against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) in overtime.
TCU has won seven of nine against the Longhorns since joining the Big 12, and Iowa State has beaten Texas two years in a row. New head coach Steve Sarkisian might be fun when the Longhorns presumably join the SEC soon in an official capacity, but he can’t transform a toxic culture in Austin all by himself.
Most underrated: Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State started 4-1 in 2020, including wins over then-No. 3 Oklahoma and TCU, before ending the season on a five-game skid that included bottoms-up losses to West Virginia (37-10), Iowa State (45-0), and Texas (69-31). Clearly, the Wildcats hit a midseason wall after some key injuries and never could recover.
Look for the Wildcats to surprise a few teams this season. Third-year head coach Chris Klieman, who went 8-5 in 2019, is doing a solid job to replace the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats also return senior quarterback Skylar Thompson, who has started 30 games under center. Kansas State is picked to finish seventh place in the Big 12 this season.
Pac-12
Most overrated: USC Trojans
USC is another program like Texas in the Big 12 — resources that are matched by very few other athletic programs, a prestigious history, and typically overrated entering a new season. The Trojans certainly fit the bill for the 2021 season, checking in at No. 13 in the ESPN preseason Top 25.
Sure, the Trojans return plenty of talent from a team that went 5-1 last year’s shortened campaign, with the only loss coming to Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game. With some of the ups and downs of head coach Clay Helton’s run in Los Angeles, though, it’s fair to question if USC deserves the 2021 preseason praise.
Playmakers must be found to replace guys like wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (drafted by the NFL’s Detroit Lions) and running back Stephen Carr, who ran for more than 1,300 yards last season before transferring to Indiana this summer.
Opening the season with a resurgent San José State program should worry Trojans fans.
Most underrated: Stanford Cardinal
There’s not much of a buzz around Palo Alto despite the end of Stanford’s 2020 campaign. After dropping the first two games of the shortened season, the Cardinal won all of its final five games, including road triumphs against Washington and UCLA.
Most pollsters have tabbed the Cardinal at fourth place in the Pac-12 North Division preseason media poll, a finish that the team is certainly capable of bettering this fall.
In his decade on the sidelines, head coach David Shaw has built a winning culture, including a stretch from 2012 to 2015 of three conference titles. Stanford may not be at that level necessarily in 2021, i.e. capable of beating Oregon, but the team could certainly win 8-9 games and earn Top 25 votes.
ACC
Most overrated: North Carolina Tar Heels
People are desperately looking around for another ACC team that can challenge the powerful Clemson Tigers, who have dominated the conference for the last five years running. No one in the league will stop the Tigers this season, and it certainly won’t be UNC.
The Tar Heels return talent from last year’s squad, including a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Sam Howell. North Carolina, though, must replace several game-changing playmakers after four of its offensive skill position players heard their names in the 2021 NFL Draft. Replacing guys like running back Javonte Williams (drafted No. 35 overall by the Denver Broncos) won’t come easy for head coach Mack Brown.
Even with Howell and the offense humming in 2020, the Tar Heels managed to slip up against conference foes like Florida State and Virginia. I’m hesitant to put this squad as a top-10 team in the nation in 2021.
Most underrated: Virginia Tech Hokies
While there’s comfort in the stability in a football program that has only had two head coaches since 1987, there’s a lot of pressure on Justin Fuente as he enters his sixth season. While in the shadow of the legendary Frank Beamer, Fuente led the Hokies to their second losing season in three years, a tough pill to swallow for a fanbase that hadn’t witnessed a sub-.500 mark before that since 1992.
The Hokies were picked to finish neck-and-neck with Pittsburgh for third place in the ACC Coastal division, although it’s hard to take a media poll seriously in which several voters picked Georgia Tech, Virginia, or NC State to win the conference outright instead of the prohibitive favorite Clemson.
Virginia Tech has skill position players to replace, but the team’s ground attack led the ACC last year and was among the top teams nationally at 240 rushing yards per game.
Big Ten
Most overrated: Penn State Nittany Lions
Head coach James Franklin would like everyone to forget about last season. The Nittany Lions notoriously stumbled out of the gate in the pandemic-shortened season, dropping their first five games before rallying to finish the season with a 4-5 record. For a coach who has guided the program to three 11-win seasons (and three Top 10 finishes), it was a surprising setback.
The defense lost its best players to the NFL draft, including linebacker Micah Parsons and Odafe Oweh, who were both first-round selections. Quarterback Sean Clifford has struggled to find consistency, too. The team is projected to finish second place in the Big Ten’s East division.
The pieces are there for a strong run in 2021, but Penn State isn’t capable of standing toe-to-toe with Ohio State. September games against Wisconsin and Auburn will go a long way in determining Penn State’s fate this fall.
Most underrated: Minnesota Golden Gophers
The media pundits predict that Minnesota will finish fourth in the Big Ten West this upcoming season, behind Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
The Golden Gophers have an experienced, rebuilt offensive line and have some quality additions set to join the team, such as Texas A&M transfer wide receiver Dylan Wright. Running back Mohamed Ibrahim, the Big Ten Running Back of the Year, also gives second-year offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. a talented attack.
The Golden Gophers flew under the radar last year, finishing 3-4 after having multiple games canceled. Most of the nation has quickly forgotten the “row the boat” mania of 2019 that head coach P.J. Fleck captured while Minnesota finished 11-2 and had reached the No. 7 ranking in the nation. I predict that Minnesota will surprise people this year and recapture some of that program-defining momentum from two years ago.
SEC
Most overrated: Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies made a case to be the nation’s No. 4-ranked team in order to earn a playoff bid last season in what would’ve been the school’s first appearance in the national semifinal. But hype for Texas A&M as a top-five team this year isn’t justified. Quarterback Kellen Mond is now with the Minnesota Vikings and four starters on the offensive line must be replaced.
The Aggies finished with four, five, or six (!) losses in each season between 2013 and 2019. The team looked strong in finishing last season with a 9-1 record and the Orange Bowl win over UNC, but here’s a bet that A&M will come crashing back to earth in 2021.
Most underrated: Arkansas Razorbacks
Second-year head coach Sam Pittman has the Razorbacks heading in the right direction after last year’s surprising, modest success — the team won three SEC contests, its highest conference win total since 2016. After back-to-back 2-10 seasons in 2018 and 2019, Arkansas fans had more to be happy about after 2020’s 3-7 mark against SEC-only competition.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson has seen only limited playing time behind outgoing starter Feleipe Franks, but the redshirt sophomore has shown flashes of brilliance and is a true dual-play threat. Pittman has the Hogs more aggressive and physical than before and with most starters returning, it’s conceivable to see the team reaching a bowl game this season for the first time since 2016.
In the 2021 SEC preseason media poll, Arkansas was picked to finish sixth place in the SEC West Division.