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College football thoughts from around the nation: Predictions for 2021

By Sonny Martinez

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - JANUARY 11: A general view of the CPF National Championship midfield logo before the College Football Playoff National Championship football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Ohio State Buckeyes at Hard Rock Stadium on January 11, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - JANUARY 11: A general view of the CPF National Championship midfield logo before the College Football Playoff National Championship football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Ohio State Buckeyes at Hard Rock Stadium on January 11, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images) /
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Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati Football. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati Football. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

Group of Five picks

  • I want to start with this: I came up with these picks by doing game-by-game predictions for each team. The biggest reason for doing this is I don’t want to take the “easy road” and pick the same teams as everyone else, but I also refuse to be someone who picks a team to win just for “shock value.” Outrageous picks are most of the time just that: outrageous.

We’ll start in the Group of Five, where each conference seemingly has at least a couple of New Year’s Six contenders.

  • There are two that I can’t see a true New Year’s Six contender in. The first is the MAC, which although an extremely exciting league, doesn’t have any teams to that level, nor do they have a program with a schedule that is supportive of such a run. My MAC title pick is a rematch of last year’s thriller, with Ball State defeating Buffalo. I believe outside of those two, the only other team that is capable of winning the conference is Toledo.
  • The other conference is Conference USA. This is one of those conferences I see playing out different than most. I’m picking Marshall to win the East, something that isn’t much of a shock as they’re clearly the best team in the division. Where the difference comes from is the West division, where I think UTSA can top UAB. The Roadrunners playing host to the Blazers will decide the division. As much as I’d love to pick the upstart Roadrunners to claim their first FBS conference championship, I have to go with Marshall claiming the crown.

I’m also a lot higher than most on Charlotte, who I think makes it to six wins and a bowl. Charlotte’s over/under win total is set at five, so that might be an interesting look.

  • Who would have thought a few years ago that the Sun Belt would have not one, but two New Year’s Six contenders? They certainly do this year in Coastal Carolina and Louisiana, which are the two teams I’m going with to face off for the Sun Belt championship. I think Coastal Carolina ends up winning the title and will be a strong factor in the College Football Playoff polls that come out late in the season.

And don’t forget about App State. They’re not being talked about much, but they’re dangerous. The Mountaineers get Louisiana and Coastal Carolina in back-to-back weeks in October and can do some real damage to the conference’s hopes for a major bowl bid. An upset over Miami would throw the Mountaineers right into the conversation.

  • Over in the Mountain West, Boise State is the consensus pick to win the Mountain division and I have to agree. Boise State could be extremely potent on offense with the return of Hank Bachmeier and Khalil Shakir, one of the best quarterback/wide receiver combos in the nation. Don’t forget about George Holani at running back, a former 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 that missed most of last season with a knee injury.

Nevada is a strong pick to win the West division and rightly so. Returning quarterback Carson Strong, nine of his top 10 targets return from last season as well as 10 starters on a defense that ranked 33rd in points per game allowed. However, I think San Jose State repeats as division champion. There’s a lot to love about the Spartans: quarterback, running back, both lines, coach, and most importantly, schedule. San Jose State does travel to Nevada, but overall I think the Spartans are just a stronger team. Don’t be surprised if the Spartans walk out of The Coliseum against USC as victors.

So like the MAC, it’s a conference championship rematch. But unlike the MAC, it won’t be a repeat: Boise State avenges last season’s loss to claim their first conference title since all the way back in 2019. By the way, the last time Boise State went two straight years without a conference title? All the way back in 2015 and 2016.

  • Last but not least, the class of the Group of Five in recent seasons has been the AAC. I won’t waste much time here: Cincinnati will win the conference. Not only is Cincinnati the clubhouse leader for the New Year’s Six appearance, they’re also College Football Playoff contenders.

If, and it’s really not even a big if, the Bearcats can defeat Indiana and Notre Dame, the likelihood of Cincinnati running the table is very high. Outside of those two, there are a couple of other landmines they can face, hosting UCF and SMU. They travel to East Carolina to finish the year and while I don’t think the Pirates have a shot to win the AAC, I could see them ruining someone else’s chances. Could it be Cincinnati?

I have SMU finishing second in the conference and therefore facing off with Cincinnati for what would be the second time in three weeks. I think Tanner Mordecai will be solid for the Mustangs and lead them to a much better season than most expect.

For those wondering, I have UCF going 9-3 with conference losses to both SMU and Cincinnati, both on the road.

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