College Football 2021: 4 teams that will be on upset alert in Week 4

1. Clemson (at NC State)

Clemson can’t keep playing at this level on offense and expect to run the table. It just might catch up with them in Raleigh.

Clemson hasn’t been the same team they were while Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence. They couldn’t get anything going against Georgia, which in the first game against one of the nation’s best defenses you can get away with. But 284 yards against Georgia Tech? We have problems.

We know Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei can light up the stat sheet. There’s not much of a bigger stage than prime time against Notre Dame and Uiagalelei showed up and almost led Clemson to victory. But this season? He’s been very average and extremely underwhelming. He’s 89th in pass yards and only has one touchdown with two interceptions while completing under 60 percent of his passes.

If you think that’s because the yardage has gone to the run game, you’d be wrong. Clemson is in the bottom half of the nation in rushing with just 134 yards per game.

Despite the loss to Mississippi State, I think NC State is the second-best team in the ACC and this would have been my ACC title game pick had the league returned to the no division scheduling of last season. This is, in large part, to the Wolfpack defense.

NC State is 16th in total defense, which just happens to be one spot higher and two yards less than where Clemson’s defense ranks. They’re only giving up ten points per game compared to Clemson’s seven. The Wolfpack defense hasn’t been able to get to the quarterback much this year — only two sacks — but it’s not because the defensive line is weak. NC State holds opponents to 73 yards per game on the ground.

This will be a defensive battle. It’s clear that the strength of each team is the defense. This is going to be a game that comes down to who can make more big plays, and it might only take two or three of those. A big turnover on defense might be part of that, or a crucial fourth down stop late.

Field position will be key since points might be at a premium, which means special teams will be huge as well. Who can be more effective on punt and kick returns? So far, both teams have been nearly identical ineffectiveness on returns.

Dabo Swinney has said that “Clemsoning,” or losing a game you shouldn’t, is dead. NC State is looking to bring it back. If the Tigers’ offense can’t get it together, this could be the first of a few uses of that term this season.