College Football 2021: Top 3 teams on upset alert in Week 6

1. Alabama (at Texas A&M)

Just six short weeks ago, everyone had this game circled as the game that would decide the SEC West. Now, in the second week of October, a Texas A&M win wouldn’t even give the Aggies a tie for the division lead.

A&M’s tough loss to Arkansas was followed by a disappointing loss to a Mississippi State team that has 11 points between a 4-1 and 1-4 but finds itself in the middle at 3-2.

Alabama is nearly a three-touchdown (per WynnBET) favorite coming into this game, which feels extremely high.

The Aggies have been extremely disappointing this season, but it’s not like they forgot how to play football. They’ve been solid on defense. Their worst performance was last week when they gave up 26 points. They’ve given up 37 points total in their other four games. I really think the defense has been good enough to keep them in this game.

The problem has been on offense, where consistency has been hard to find. Zach Calzada was initially the backup to Haynes King, but King fractured his ankle against Colorado and hasn’t returned yet. It’s possible he plays Saturday, although those chances are slim. Calzada hasn’t been able to find much success at all since taking over the job, completing just 54 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Aggie offensive line is a problem also. The Alabama defensive line could very well eat them alive and turn the game ugly in a hurry. It’s October and A&M is still trying to figure out how to play four new starters. They struggle in pass blocking, which is a big reason for Calzada’s struggles. But they’re also questionable when protecting the run, leading to some struggles in the run game.

If the offensive line doesn’t hold up and play a full 60 minutes, then it won’t matter how well the defense plays. It’s all about how well they protect Calzada so he can make the necessary throws and open up just a few holes for Texas A&M running backs to convert on third and short.