Ever since summer 2021, when OU and Texas announced their impending departure from the Big 12 to the SEC, the conference realignment wheels are turning rapidly once again.
This summer, the earth-shattering news was the defection of the Pac-12’s two most prized programs, UCLA and USC, leaving the league to soon join forces with the Big Ten.
By 2025 at the latest, both the Big Ten and the SEC will have 16 teams and may be considered college football’s “super conferences” due to the brand value, the ticket revenue, the fan support, and the resources of each athletic (namely, football) program.
With the conference realignment wheels spinning, which ACC schools are most likely to leave the league to form a new super conference?
It’s widely known that Oregon and Washington would leave the Pac-12 and join the Big Ten if they were invited. Notre Dame, despite the increased commentary and buzz lately, still fiercely clings to its independence.
The Fighting Irish have done quite well even in today’s conference-centric environment as the (semi) non-affiliated power program — they play several ACC football teams per year and the rest of their sports teams participate in the league.
Which dominoes are left to fall in the increasingly bipolar “super conference” world of college football? The wealthiest and most powerful ACC members.
And it’s only a matter of time before several of these schools join either the Big Ten or the SEC.
Yes, the ACC media rights deal lasts until 2036 in a very real and legally binding sense. But something tells me that lawyers will get involved and/or some kind of lucrative buyout will take place. It might not be pretty, but it’s hard to see everything standing pat for the next 14 years on behalf of the ACC Network.
What looks like a realistic scenario is three current ACC football teams + Notre Dame would join either the Big Ten or the SEC. If the Irish stay independent, it would be four ACC teams to make it an even number.
The driving force behind teams changing conferences today — including the aftershocks of OU and Texas like the Big 12 adding four more teams, etc. — is the financial benefit that schools can get from new media rights deals from giants like ESPN and FOX Sports. In the NIL world of college athletics with an open transfer portal, it’s “sink or swim” for all of the nation’s top football programs. You have to keep up with your opponents, or you’ll quickly fall behind.
Like it or not, the super conference era of college football is here. If you had the opportunity to poach four ACC members (excluding Notre Dame, of course), which ones would you choose?
Here’s a rundown of how each ACC member stands in terms of attractiveness in the latest round of conference realignment:
14. Boston College
Sorry, Doug Flutie and Eagles fans — Boston College ranks at the bottom of this list.
The Eagles’ best days were their first three seasons in the ACC, which they joined in 2005. The team compiled a 30-9 record in those three years. The 2007 squad was ranked No. 2 at one point in the season before losing the ACC title game to Virginia Tech and finishing 11-3, ranked in the AP Top 10.
The Eagles haven’t won more than seven games in a season since 2009. Maybe the saving grace for BC would be its location in Boston, with a metro area of 4.9 million people — didn’t that large-city proximity somehow earn Rutgers a seat in the Big Ten a few years ago?
13. Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons had a nice season last year, going 11-3 and reaching the ACC title game before losing to Pitt. They return quarterback Sam Hartman this year and could make some noise — but this recent success has been the exception instead of the rule in Winston-Salem, N.C.
There’s not an overwhelmingly huge fan base and the results are pretty weak overall. Since 2009, the team has only recorded four winning seasons and the Demon Deacons were one of the ACC’s worst teams in the 1990s.
12. Syracuse
You’ve got to love the Carrier Dome and the 2-3 zone defense — but the highly regarded men’s basketball team won’t get Syracuse into a super conference anytime soon.
The Orange joined the ACC in 2013, and the football team has struggled ever since. From that point, they’ve only had two winning seasons. Although 2018’s 10-3 squad under coach Dino Babers was nice, it feels more like a flash in the pan.
11. Pittsburgh
The Panthers have been one of those solid-but-not-spectacular football teams since joining the ACC in 2013 from the Big East. True, last year’s squad won the ACC title with star quarterback Kenny Pickett (a future first-round NFL Draft selection), but that was Pitt’s best team since 1981.
The 1976 team won the national title, sure, with Tony Dorsett winning the Heisman Trophy, but Pitt hasn’t come close to matching that success recently. Last year’s No. 13 finish in the AP poll was the first time the Panthers finished the year ranked since 2009.
10. Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets rank ahead of a few ACC schools now due to geography — Georgia is a talent-rich state and Atlanta is a huge media market — and some proven success under George O’Leary from the late 1990s and early 2000s.
There’s not much going on recently for Georgia Tech, though, as the team has compiled a 9-25 win-loss record during the past three seasons.
9. Louisville
You’ll see a common theme here later down the list that applies to the Cardinals: great men’s basketball program, but those results easily overshadow the football team.
Louisville has made some noise on the recruiting trail recently, and the program’s last year in the Big East and only season in the American (random, right?) under then-head coach Charlie Strong have yet to be matched in the ACC.
It’s not a large media market (the metro area population is almost 1.4 million) and the football team has had only one winning season in the past four years. It’s not likely to be the Cardinals receiving an invitation to move conferences this time around.
8. NC State
The Wolfpack has recently put together some nine-win seasons and have a handful of AP Top 25 finishes, but NC State certainly won’t be confused for a college football heavyweight.
Of note is that three NC State players have gone in the NFL Draft’s first round in the past five years. In the 2018 NFL Draft alone, seven Wolfpack players were selected, including defensive end Bradley Chubb with the fifth overall pick by the Denver Broncos.
7. Duke
The Blue Devils are a tough school to determine in these rankings. Even with the retirement of Mike Krzyzewski, the men’s basketball program is second to none in terms of prestige, results, and influence.
But… the football program hasn’t nearly reached that level. There’s been one Top 25 finish since the John F. Kennedy administration: in 2013, when a 10-4 Blue Devils squad under David Cutcliffe reached the ACC title game and lost to Florida State, 45-7.
Duke has a great reputation, a strong alumni base, and a pretty campus, but the lack of success on the gridiron may prevent Duke from getting a spot in a super conference.
6. Virginia
The Cavaliers might not be the cream of the ACC crop in terms of the next super conference, but they’re close. The academics are great and the Thomas Jefferson-centric university in Charlottesville, Va. is nationally renowned. The men’s basketball program is powerful, having recently won a national title.
The football team isn’t at that elite level, however. The Cavaliers have won 8-9 games in their best years, and there’s only been one NFL Draft pick higher than the third round from the school in the past decade (defensive back Juan Thornhill to the Chiefs in 2018). There’s not a ton of buzz around Virginia football right now.
5. Virginia Tech
The Hokies haven’t regained prominence since the departure of longtime head coach Frank Beamer after the 2015 season.
Virginia Tech was one of the powers in the last days of the Big East and during its early years with the ACC: during an eight-year stretch from 2004 to 2011, the Hokies won at least 10 games each season and reached the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl. That was after the 1999 Michael Vick-led squad went 11-1 and lost the de facto national title game to Florida State.
The Hokies have finished with three losing seasons in the past four years and are on to a new head coach in Brent Pry. The recent downturn may cost Virginia Tech a spot at the table in the next super conference.
4. North Carolina
The Tar Heels were last a truly “great” football team under head coach Mack Brown… during his first stint with the team back in the 1990s. They’ve been solid since Brown’s return and within the last decade, like the 2015 squad that went 11-3 and lost in the ACC title game to Clemson under Larry Fedora.
They’re certainly not a safe pick to move on from the ACC, however. The Tar Heels were everyone’s hyped preseason pick in 2021, and they failed to deliver even with star Sam Howell at quarterback, going 6-7 after a bowl loss.
The prestigious and highly regarded academic reputation throughout the South and the nation gives UNC the edge, in addition to being one of the most elite men’s basketball programs ever (and not just historically — last year’s squad reached the national title game). These two factors make UNC a better realignment candidate than Virginia Tech or Duke.
3. Florida State
There’s not a ton of debate about which three ACC schools are the most desirable for the next super conference, although the Seminoles’ weak on-field results are surprising. FSU hasn’t fielded a winning team since 2018. The stretch from 2012 to 2016, though, resulted in 10+ wins each season, including the 2013 national title under then-head coach Jimbo Fisher (now at Texas A&M).
The fan support is there, the financial resources are clearly there, and the football history is storied — even a few bad years now from Florida State won’t keep it out of the ACC’s top three prestigious programs. Not yet, anyway.
2. Miami (Fla.)
The Hurricanes certainly have a cool vibe about them — is that just because they technically represent the city of Miami, Fla.? The program boasts five (!) national titles: 1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, and 2001 and has produced its fair share of all-time great players.
They haven’t won a ton since joining the ACC in 2004 from the Big East, but there was the 2017 squad under Mark Richt that finished 10-3. New head coach Mario Cristobal and the deep coffers of the school’s boosters (NIL deals, baby!) will keep Miami relevant on the national stage.
1. Clemson
The Tigers have the history, the large fan base, and the financial resources to trade blows with any college football heavyweight. The recent run of success from the past decade under head coach Dabo Swinney is the icing on the cake.
The program won the national title in 1981, 2016, and 2018, as the Tigers famously proved that they could go toe-to-toe and beat the nation’s other great teams like Alabama.
Given the recent success of the Clemson football team and the rapidly changing world of conference realignment, it’s difficult at this point to see the Tigers complacent to remain in the ACC until 2036.