As we conclude week nine of the college football season, we have officially entered the stretch run, with the College Football Playoff rankings here every Tuesday until the final rankings are revealed after conference championship week.
Tennessee, the most dominant team of the season so far, took the top spot but will be faced with the ultimate test this week at #3 Georgia. #2 Ohio State and #4 Clemson round out the rest of the initial projected field. We still have some huge games coming up, and much can change.
Here are week nine’s projections for the New Year’s Six, including the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Cotton Bowl
UCF v UCLA
Previous: Cincinnati v USC
Cincinnati, the class of the Group of Five for the past few seasons, suffered their first AAC conference loss since 2019 in a 25-21 loss at UCF. It marked the likely end of Cincinnati’s stranglehold on the conference and in turn, the automatic qualifier to a NY6 bowl.
When the rankings were released last night, Tulane was the highest-ranked team among the Group of 5, sitting at #19. Tulane is a really fun team and a cool story, but I’m projecting the second-highest-ranked team, #25 UCF to eventually take the top spot and a seat at the Cotton Bowl.
Under Gus Malzahn, the Golden Knights slayed the Cincinnati dragon and while they have two disappointing losses, they also have the biggest win and most talented roster. With Ole Miss transfer QB John Rhys Plumlee running the Malzahn offense, the classic overwhelming speed and running game is starting bro round into shape.
Tulane will get to host UCF in a few weeks, and will likely be favored, but give me the Knights to win the game and eventually the G5 bid.
Joining them in the Cotton Bowl as a newcomer to the NY6 is Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins. Other than a convincing loss at #8 Oregon, the Bruins have been dominant all season long, led by QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his 22 total touchdowns.
While USC continues to struggle defensively against the weak teams of the PAC 12, I believe the Bruins will defeat the Trojans at the end of the season and will end up at the Cotton Bowl.
Rose Bowl
Oregon v Michigan
For the fifth straight week, we hold firm on our projection for the 109th Rose Bowl Game.
Head coach Dan Lanning got his first statement win of his coaching career two weeks ago against UCLA, and his team avoided the hangover road game at California, winning 42-24.
The Ducks will take on Colorado this week, before a massive three-week stretch against Washington, Utah, and Oregon State. With a Pac-12 championship against USC or UCLA, there’s still an outside chance that the Ducks could sneak into the CFP. For now, the Ducks will fly south to the Rose Bowl.
Meeting the Ducks in Pasadena are the Wolverines of Michigan. In case you haven’t heard, Michigan and Michigan State played a football game last week. Despite all the craziness after the game, the Wolverines showed again that they and Ohio State are in a class of their own.
The Wolverines won 29-7 over the Spartans. The defense continues to get better each week, while Blak Corum continues to look like a Heisman finalist, rushing for 177 yards and two total touchdowns. His eventual battle against Ohio State’s CJ Stroud may have the Heisman and a CFP berth on the line.
Here, we are projecting the Wolverines to fall short in the Big Game in Columbus, but make their way to the Rose Bowl. Does Jim Harbaugh finally get the big bowl win, or does Oregon win the granddaddy of them all in Dan Lanning’s first season?
Sugar Bowl
Tennessee v TCU
The two best stories in college football this season are projected to meet in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. For the third straight week, we’re sticking with our projections, even with last night’s CFP rankings released.
The Horned Frogs were given another surprising test, this time at West Virginia. In a back-and-forth game, the Frogs didn’t finally pull away until a late touchdown on fourth down gave TCU a 10-point lead in the final minute. That’s now four straight weeks where there was a real possibility that TCU could slip up, yet they’ve survived.
The Horned Frogs still have two really difficult road games left, at Texas and Baylor. Win those, and the noise will only get louder about TCU and the CFP. Keep playing with fire, and they will still likely end up on Bourbon Street.
Two weeks ago, I made a judgment call projecting Tennessee, who had just defeated Alabama, out of the CFP and putting Bama in. Now that Tennessee has earned the top spot in the CFP rankings…I still have Tennessee on the outside looking in.
Tennessee continues to have the best season in college football, reminding us all of another incredible offense that LSU had back in 2019. This incredible run will take on its greatest challenge when the Vols take on the Dawgs this Saturday.
With a win, then I will eat crow, and the Volunteers will be heading to the CFP, regardless of what happens in the SEC championship. You can also lock up Hendon Hooker for that Heisman if he can get the win in Athens.
With a loss, their fate falls into the hands of Georgia. A Georgia win means a Bulldog vs Crimson Tide SEC championship. A win by Georgia, and I think both Georgia and Tennessee get into the CFP. A loss to Bama and you’ll likely see Bama and Georgia get in, with Tennessee falling just short and heading to the Sugar Bowl.
For now, we got the Sugar Bowl as Tennessee’s destination.
Orange Bowl
North Carolina v Ole Miss
Previous: Wake Forest vs Penn State
After a few weeks, we’re changing our Orange Bowl projections, as both Wake Forest and Penn State both lost last week. Enter two fun teams with great coaches in North Carolina and Ole Miss.
Where Syracuse and Wake Forest both have slipped up, North Carolina has been one of the most impressive yet least talked about teams in the country.
The 17th-ranked Tar Heels are undefeated in the ACC and have an explosive offense led by future NFL quarterback Drake Maye. Maye, the younger brother of UNC hoops legend, has played like a Heisman contender. With over 2,600 yards passing, 400 yards rushing, and 32 total touchdowns, Maye will be the runaway ACC player of the year.
He along with his team and Mack Brown will be an ultimate challenge to Clemson in the ACC championship. Win or lose, we’re projecting the Heels go to the Orange Bowl for the second time in three years.
After Penn State failed to pull off the upset over Ohio State, we’re projecting Ole Miss, the fourth-best team in the SEC and the #11 in the country, to take on the Heels in South Beach.
The Rebels, led by yet another well-run Lane Kiffin offense, stormed out to a 7-0 start before a loss at LSU. After rebounding with a road win at Texas A&M, the Rebels are on a bye as they prepare for a massive home battle against Alabama. A win and Ole Miss just may threaten for a playoff spot. A respectable loss and we’re projecting an Orange Bowl birth.
Maye and Mack vs Dart and Lane may be the most underrated bowl game of the season.
College Football Playoff
Fiesta Bowl
1 Ohio State v 4 Georgia
Peach Bowl
2 Clemson vs 3 Alabama
The first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings told us a lot, but I continue to project the same CFP rankings as the past few weeks.
Alabama finally got to their much-needed bye week, and now will head to Baton Rouge for a challenging road trip to LSU. The Tigers have turned the corner of late, and have always given Bama fits. If they survive LSU, Ole Miss awaits the next week.
The bye week should get Bama as healthy as they can get this season, but that may mean we get 2021 versions of Bryce Young and Will Anderson Jr.
If so, Alabama should be the SEC West division champs and meet Georgia or Tennessee in Atlanta. A win against either team and they’re going to go dancing. Here, we’re projecting the Tide to get healthy and locked in just in time.
In a College Football Playoff National Championship rematch, we’re still taking Bama over Georgia. The win pushes Bama into the field, while top seed Georgia barely hangs on.
With the win, Ohio State takes the top seed in the playoff and forces Georgia to lose out on a home playoff game opportunity, instead playing the 1 v 4 matchup in the Fiesta Bowl. The Buckeyes were pushed for 3 quarters before overwhelming the Nittany Lions on the road.
If Alabama is in the dance, then the Clemson Tigers must not be far behind. Somehow, the Tigers survived a brutal game against Syracuse before their bye last week.
The quarterback controversy will only heat up after Uiagalelei was benched for star freshman Cade Klubnik. As inconsistent as the offense looks, they can still run the football, and they have a championship-level defense. In our projected playoff, we have Clemson figuring it out, and I have them finishing undefeated and the #2 seed, battling Alabama for the 4th time in the Playoff.
College Football Playoff National Championship
1 Ohio State v 3 Alabama
Nine weeks into our projections, and we continue to hold the line: Alabama vs Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship. In a rematch from 2021, nearly all the pieces changed. Many teams (Georgia) will have something to say about this projection, but for now, we project the biggest stars in the game to meet in the Land of stars.