Week 11 is in the books and boy will the College Football Playoff rankings look a lot different next week as a number of top teams fell.
We saw the top four all take care of business, however. Actually, the top five all won their games as Georgia handled Mississippi State, Ohio State toppled Indiana, Michigan ran away from Nebraska, TCU went on the road to beat Texas, and Tennessee dismantled Missouri.
A top-six team did lose on Saturday, however, and it was a shocking result. Oregon hosted Washington for the annual rivalry game and the Huskies picked up the major upset. No one saw that happening, but a back-and-forth affair went in Washington’s favor, 37-34.
Other ranked teams lost as well and teams like Ole Miss, UCLA, and NC State all saw playoff hopes crushed. The Wolfpack didn’t really have serious hopes, but losing to Boston College could eliminate them from New Year’s Six contention as well. Ole Miss’ loss to Alabama all but eliminates them from the playoff conversation and the same goes for UCLA losing to Arizona.
The College Football Playoff rankings will see quite the shakeup this week, and here’s what I think they’ll look like on Tuesday.
Surprised to not see Texas or NC State here? I think both teams looked bad enough to make room for UTSA to sneak into the playoff rankings. The committee could not have been impressed with zero offensive touchdowns for Texas and a home loss to Boston College by NC State. The Roadrunners, on the other hand, improved to 8-2 with a 51-7 blowout win over Louisiana Tech.
Oregon State continues to impress, even a week after losing a tough road game to Washington. The Beavers bounced back to dismantle Cal 38-10 in Week 11 behind a smothering defense that allowed just over 150 total yards. The Beavers are now 7-3 on the year and they deserve a look as a top 25 team.
No Grayson McCall? No problem for Coastal Carolina. OK, so maybe the Chanticleers did have a little bit of a problem with Southern Miss in Week 11, trailing late in the game but securing a 26-23 thrilling with over the Golden Eagles. Despite not having McCall for the rest of the regular season, I think the committee awards 9-1 Coastal Carolina with a spot in the top 25.
Ranked in both the Coaches and AP polls last week, Cincinnati felt a little slighted when the playoff committee left it out of the rankings. But the Bearcats didn’t do a ton to prove that they belonged this week, beating East Carolina at home by just two points, but I think that’ll be enough to get them just inside the top 25. Cincinnati is in position to play for another AAC title.
After dropping Oklahoma State from the rankings a week ago after a second straight blowout loss, I can see them putting the Cowboys back into the rankings this week after they beat Iowa State, 20-14. It wasn’t the most impressive win, but the Cowboys were actually underdogs at home and Spencer Sanders came off the bench to throw the game-winning touchdown. I’m not sold on this team, but No. 21 seems like a fair spot.
OK, I’ll admit, I expected Syracuse to at least put up a fight against Florida State in Week 11, but I was very, very wrong. The Seminoles dominated from start to finish as Jordan Travis threw more touchdown passes than incompletions and Trey Benson rushed for 163 yards on 18 carries. Florida State won 38-3 on the road and the committee should be impressed.
UCF set the tone at Tulane on Saturday, taking a 10-point lead in the first half and never looking back. Tulane made things interesting, but UCF was just too much for the Green Wave to handle, even at home. Gus Malzahn’s team improves to 8-2 and picks up a massive quality win which could have them in position to be the nation’s top Group of Five team. New Year’s Six, here they come?
Chip Kelly’s team had to just take care of Arizona and it’d be in control of its own destiny in the Pac-12 title race. But it couldn’t even do that on Saturday night. The Wildcats went into the Rose Bowl and upset the No. 12 Bruins. Dorian Thompson-Robinson gave it his all but it wasn’t quite enough as Arizona was the better team all night. UCLA will drop to No. 18 this week.
Notre Dame was running Navy right off the field in Week 11, and then the second half started. The Irish were up 35-13 at halftime and Navy stormed back to only lose 35-32. The second half had to be unsettling for Marcus Freeman and there’s still a ton to work on, but the Irish will still move up a few spots thanks to losses by Texas, Tulane, NC State, and UCLA.
The past four weeks have been a rollercoaster for Kansas State. They lost to TCU on the road by 10 points, blew No. 9 Oklahoma State out 48-0, lost by a touchdown to Texas at home, and then smothered Baylor on the road 31-3. The Wildcats are probably a little better than their record which is why I see the committee putting them right outside of the top 15.
Washington is going to see the biggest rise of any team this week after going on the road to beat No. 6 Oregon. Michael Penix Jr. needs more consideration in the Heisman race, Kalen DeBoer is a legit coach of the year candidate, and Washington might be the most underrated team in the country. Not anymore.
Ole Miss had a chance to make a statement and join the playoff conversation with a win over No. 9 Alabama on Saturday and it looked like the Rebels were going to do just that but they let a double-digit lead slip away. Lane Kiffin’s team won’t drop too much because of the close loss to the Tide, but this one has to sting a little more than other losses.
North Carolina clinched a spot in the ACC title game after going on the road to beat a tough Wake Forest team in a thriller, 36-34. Mack Brown’s team has bounced back after a poor 2021 season and he’s bringing the excitement back to Chapel Hill. This North Carolina team may not actually make the playoff, but it’s clearly New Year’s Six-worthy.
If you were looking for a shootout on Saturday between Maryland and Penn State, you were probably disappointed as the Nittany Lions shut the Terps out and held them to just over 130 total yards. This Penn State defense played out of its mind. Sean Clifford didn’t have his best game, but Nicholas Singleton rushed for 122 yards and two scores to lead the Nittany Lions to a 30-0 win.
Utah’s Pac-12 title hopes remain alive if the Utes can win out and they took a good first step on Saturday, scoring 42 straight points to beat Stanford after trailing 7-0 early. Cameron Rising deserves more national recognition for just being a winner and Tavion Thomas got back on track after a tough start to the year. The Utes are looking sneaky good at the right time.
This was the most shocking loss of the week, in my opinion.
I expected Oregon to have its way with Washington in Eugene, but I shouldn’t have underestimated Michael Penix Jr., Kalen DeBoer, and the fact that this is a massive rivalry game. Washington pulled off the upset and potentially ended the Ducks’ playoff hopes on the road.
Oregon has to be sick that it let this one slip through its fingers because this was a chance to prove to the playoff committee that it belonged in the playoff. It was a chance to prove that the season-opening loss to Georgia was a fluke.
But that didn’t happen.
Bo Nix played well but he did get injured late in the game and the Ducks will have to hope that it’s not going to keep him out.
I don’t see the Ducks dropping out of the top 10, but they have a long road to potentially getting back into the playoff picture.
The committee seemed to have their finger over the “eject” button for Clemson for the past couple of weeks because they couldn’t wait to drop them out of the playoff field and all the way to No. 10 with a loss to Notre Dame.
Sure, it was an ugly loss, but it was Clemson’s first loss of the year and it came on the road against a decent Irish team.
Clemson will have an extremely tough road to getting into the playoff as it’ll likely have to win out by big margins in each game, including the ACC title against North Carolina. If the Tigers can beat Miami and South Carolina by double figures and then win the ACC title game against North Carolina by 10-plus, I could see the committee giving Dabo Swinney’s squad a serious look.
It’d be tough to keep a 12-1 Clemson team out of the playoff field.
After the ugliest quarter of the season, trailing 3-2 to Colorado after 15 minutes, USC rolled to a 55-17 win in Week 11.
The Friday night dismantling of the Buffaloes was expected and now there will be some debate about whether or not the Trojans deserve to move up with Oregon losing and dropping, but I think the committee is actually going to value another team’s win and it’ll jump USC despite having one more loss.
Who is that team? You’ll find out on the next slide, but I think you know.
The playoff committee definitely values quality wins and they don’t really have a huge loyalty to one-loss teams this year compared to those with two losses — just look at LSU.
The Trojans can still make the playoff field, however, and I think they have the best chance of anyone in the Pac-12, especially after the Ducks lost at home.
Beating Colorado isn’t going to impress the committee, however.
Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be. I truly think the committee is going to have Alabama ahead of a one-loss USC team this week and I think they wanted to have the option to get the Tide back into the playoff conversation by ranking them No. 9 after a loss to LSU.
You could argue that Alabama is still a playoff-caliber team despite having two losses because those two defeats are by a total of four points on the road against the Nos. 6 and 10 teams in the country. Not bad losses at all.
After beating No. 11 Ole Miss on the road on Saturday, the committee is going to be impressed enough to shift the Tide up to No. 7 and ahead of the Trojans who are 9-1 on the year and still in the running for the Pac-12 title.
Alabama is officially out of the SEC title race and out of chances to pick up quality wins, unfortunately. The Tide have only Austin Peay and Auburn left on the schedule. I don’t see them making the field.
Remember when Brian Kelly was buried by a reporter early in the season after he called her out for being late to the weekly press conference after the Florida State loss and it seemed like his time at LSU was going to be a disaster? Yeah, that feels like ages ago already.
No one saw this bounce-back coming after that season-opening loss. At least I sure didn’t.
Now I think LSU is going to be one of the first two teams outside of the top four waiting to pounce on a playoff spot when one of those teams finally loses. Could a two-loss LSU team really make the playoff field? I think the committee admitted that the answer is yes after ranking the Tigers No. 7 a week ago.
LSU has already clinched a spot in the SEC title game against Georgia after beating Arkansas on the road last week and if the Tigers win out, I see them representing the conference in the playoff — maybe even with the Bulldogs.
For whatever reason, Missouri has become a thorn in the side of some of the top teams in the SEC this year.
Earlier in the season, the Tigers hung around with Georgia and even led in the fourth until the Bulldogs pulled away. The Tigers were tied with Tennessee after a quarter on Saturday and only trailed 28-24 halfway through the third quarter. And then Tennessee just went nuclear.
After holding that slim lead, the Volunteers went on to score 38 straight points and drop 66 on the Tigers. Hendon Hooker’s Heisman campaign continued with 355 yards and three touchdowns and even his backup, Joe Milton, got in on the fun with 105 yards and a score on 3-of-3 passing.
The Volunteers are just waiting for one of those top four teams to falter because they look poised to jump back into the top-four. A one-loss Tennessee team almost surely gets into the field.
Who would have thought that after losing Gary Patterson, TCU would actually get better? Definitely not me and I don’t think Patterson is a bad coach, but the fresh look has worked out well for the Horned Frogs. It’s proven to be just what the program needed after a few years of plateauing.
Right when I thought I couldn’t be more impressed with TCU, it went on the road to beat a ranked Texas team by dominating defensively.
It wasn’t the best offensive day for the Horned Frogs as they finished with just 17 points and Max Duggan averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt, but the defense was the star of the show, holding Quinn Ewers to just 171 yards on 39 attempts and the Texas run game had just 28 yards on 22 carries.
TCU’s defense held Texas’ offense to just a field goal as the only Longhorn score was a scoop and score in the fourth quarter.
This team is the real deal.
There may not be a team that lulls opponents to sleep quite like Michigan does week in and week out. The Wolverines are definitely a second-half team and they’ve shown that in almost every game this year.
Heck, looking at the schedule, they played a tight game against Maryland to start Big Ten play before pulling away late, Iowa hung around for a while before Michigan shut the door in the fourth, Indiana was surprisingly giving the Wolverines trouble for three quarters, Penn State held a lead early in the third quarter, Michigan State hung around for a half, Rutgers led at halftime, and Nebraska was within striking distance through two quarters.
Nearly all of those games ended in blowouts. Nebraska was the latest victim of the patented Michigan pull-away win, losing 34-3.
JJ McCarthy needs to show he can be more of a downfield passer, but that hasn’t mattered much because Blake Corum is running over everyone in sight.
Ohio State put all of the “Buckeyes can’t play in bad weather” talk to bed — for now — against Indiana in Week 11.
The Buckeyes hosted the lowly Hoosiers and really didn’t have much problem with Tom Allen’s team from the jump. They raced out to a 21-7 lead in the first quarter and tacked on another score right before the half. The second half was all Buckeyes, too, as they ran away with a 56-14 win.
CJ Stroud continued to look like a Heisman-caliber quarterback, passing for 297 yards and five touchdowns with no picks and a QBR of 83.1.
As if that wasn’t impressive enough, the Buckeyes’ run game accounted for 340 yards on 43 carries as both Miyan Williams and Dallan Hayden rushed for over 100 yards.
While not having Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a disappointment this year, it hasn’t hurt the passing game, mostly because of Marvin Harrison Jr.’s rise to stardom. He had yet another big game.
Ohio State continues to roll with Michigan looming in two weeks.
Teams from the state of Georgia didn’t have the greatest showing in Week 11 unless, of course, your nickname is the Bulldogs.
Georgia State, Georgia Tech, and Georgia Southern all lost their respective games, but Georgia won big on the road against a decent Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs went into Starkville and came away with a massive win, scoring 10-plus points in each of the final three quarters.
Stetson Bennett’s Heisman campaign continued with 289 yards and three touchdowns and this was just one of those classic Georgia blowouts that never felt close even though some thought Mississippi State would be able to hang.
Georgia is going to remain the No. 1 team in the country this week after the win and there really shouldn’t be much debate despite both Ohio State and Michigan winning big and TCU going on the road to beat a ranked Big 12 team.