Breaking down five college football teams such as Florida, Wisconsin, and others that could do what TCU football did in 2022.
Though TCU football suffered a notable 65-7 drubbing in the national championship game, the 2022 performance up to that point was the stuff of miracles.
The unheralded Horned Frogs were picked to finish seventh in the Big 12 after a 5-7 season in 2021, yet turned it around under a first-year head coach to go undefeated in the 2022 regular season. They became the first non-Oklahoma Big 12 team to reach the College Football Playoff, knocked off the No. 2-ranked team in the country, Michigan, to reach the title game.
It was a stunning turnaround for a team from which the pundits expected little entering the season. As quarterback Max Duggan took back over the reins early in the season and the defense made big plays, TCU football achieved its 13-2 season and national runner-up finish after going 23-24 overall during the previous four seasons.
The surprise performances came from a team that engineered several comeback victories in 2022, including a double-overtime win vs. Oklahoma State and hitting a last-gasp field goal to beat Baylor on the road. The Fort Worth-based school has an enrollment of barely 12,000 students, easily one of the smallest schools at the Division FBS level, and reached the Big 12 within the last decade after stints in smaller leagues like the WAC, Conference USA, and the Mountain West. The Horned Frogs have never had a composite recruiting class rank among the nation’s top 20 teams in a given year, according to 247Sports.
Considering how TCU football outperformed every expectation this past season, there are other teams in 2022 who had ho-hum seasons near or below the .500 mark. Some college football teams return significant talent and hired a new head coach. Others might land some key transfers at the right positions, and some players might bounce back from a disappointing year.
Which five college football teams in 2023 could emulate the Horned Frogs and defy the odds to reach the College Football Playoff for the first time?
5. Florida football
The 2023 Gators match last year’s Horned Frogs in several ways. First, Florida football had seven losses this season and won only three conference games. There’s an undeniable talent, too, in Gainesville and second-year head coach Billy Napier hopes to build momentum after some continuity with the team.
Florida football has posted two consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1978 and 1979, which can’t sit well with a fanbase that has experienced national championships, All-Americans, and major bowl games.
The Gators should continue to attract transfer portal talent like former Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz, who announced that he’s transferring to Florida for next season. He has 38 touchdowns and more than 5,400 career passing yards with the Badgers.
4. Arizona
Not much is expected of the Wildcats heading into 2023, much like the Horned Frogs this past offseason. The Pac-12 had a much-improved performance last year, finishing the season with five Top 25 teams with the vast improvements of programs like USC, Oregon State, and UCLA.
Arizona posted a 5-7 record last year, which was just as mediocre as TCU’s finish in 2021. The Wildcats had gone 1-11 the year before and vastly improved in 2022 in nearly every team statistical category imaginable.
With continued momentum under third-year Jedd Fisch, who previously coached as an assistant with the NFL’s Patriots and Rams, Arizona could pull off some surprises in the Pac-12 after a Week 2 road trip to Mississippi State.
3. Baylor
After winning the 2021 Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl in a 12-win season, a 6-7 follow-up for Baylor the year after didn’t go over well with fans in Waco. Though expected to contend for another conference title, the Bears ended 2022 with a four-game losing streak.
Expect head coach Dave Aranda to turn things back around after shuffling his staff for 2023, including a new defensive coordinator and special teams coach. The Bears get a visit from Pac-12 champion hopeful Utah in Week 2 in what should be one of the best early non-conference matchups of 2023.
Last year’s Bears were a disappointment — but don’t be surprised to see a return to the form of 2021, when Baylor’s defense surrendered 18.1 points per game (10th best in the nation) and forced 1.4 interceptions per game (third best in the nation).
2. Central Florida
While the Knights went 9-5 last season (not quite a sub-.500 record like TCU in 2021), the record was a letdown for a program that wanted to jumpstart its participation in the Big 12 this upcoming fall.
In fact, Central Florida has compiled 13 losses overall in the past three seasons, a far cry from the three-year stretch between 2017 – 2019 in which the Knights went a combined 35-4, appeared in two New Years Six bowls and claimed a national championship (following the 13-0 finish in 2017).
UCF lost both its coordinators, which could be akin to replacing your longtime head coach (like TCU with Gary Patterson) before making a postseason run. The Knights still put together a solid early signing day class, including the Orlando Sentinel’s top Super 60 prospect — defensive end Kaven Call.
Something else to build on for 2023 is the team’s ground attack: the Knights ranked ninth in the nation last year with 228 rushing yards per game, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
1. Wisconsin football
Luke Fickell expects to bring plenty of energy to Madison in his first year as Wisconsin football’s head coach, and there’s plenty of talent on the field for the Badgers — as evidenced in the team’s bowl win against Oklahoma State to conclude an otherwise forgettable 2022 season.
Wisconsin football finished 7-6 last year, marking the third consecutive season that a preseason Top 25 team finished the season unranked. The Badgers have a significant hump to get over against the top teams in the Big Ten: they’re 0-5 since 2010 against Penn State and 0-9 since 2011 against Ohio State.
UNC offensive coordinator Phil Longo joins Fickell’s staff at Wisconsin next season after leading the Tar Heels offense and Heisman candidate Drake Maye to average nearly 35 points and 462 yards per game in 2022.
Former OU and SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai has announced that he will transfer to Wisconsin football, too, providing a potential team leader and an experienced hand behind the center.