Nebraska and Wisconsin are two parts of the new era that Big Ten football is entering, and they’re eager to kick things off with a bang.
The Big Ten is one of college football’s fiercest conferences, headlined by iconic programs like Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. Each of those three teams won 11 games or more last year, and two of them made the CFP—quite impressive.
That’s not even the craziest part, though. Things get really wild when you consider just how much stronger the league looks on paper; two names that always manage to stand out are Nebraska and Wisconsin.
The Cornhuskers have been one of college football’s most iconic brands of the last 50 years, and the Badgers are one of the most consistent teams of the 21st century. However, one would not have known any of that from last season.
Simply put, 2022 was a year that fans of both schools wish to soon forget—and especially when talking about Nebraska, that’s saying something.
The Huskers have been a sorry squad for years now, having missed the postseason for six seasons straight. In that span, they did as poorly as 3-9. While last year only saw them go 4-8, the inclusion of both a home loss to Georgia Southern and the subsequent firing of head coach Scott Frost made for what was arguably a darker time overall.
As for the Badgers, their recent misfortune came on far more suddenly. Despite going 9-4 in 2021, their 2022 stretch ended with a shockingly mediocre record of 7-6. Similarly to Frost, head coach Paul Chryst was also fired mid-season.
The performance was in such violation of their typical standard that it gave them their worst full-season record since 2008 (they get a pass for their 4-3 run from 2020 due to COVID).
What’s the significance of all this?
While the two situations are noticeably different, it is safe to say that a lot of work has to be done in both. But it could take years of time for visible improvements from said work to even begin taking shape, so why does any of this matter now?
Well, when looking at the circumstances surrounding the two programs going forward, they just might get things cooking quicker than expected. In fact, they could do so as soon as the next couple of years or, if they’re really lucky, this one.
As previously established, Nebraska and Wisconsin canned their head coaches in the middle of their seasons, which has left the teams entering their 2023 slates with new faces at the helm. Demanding that they turn things around in their first go is a rather tall order, but if that’s the kind of takeover the schools are looking for, the choices for HC could not have been better.
Back in November, it was confirmed that Nebraska’s future would fall on Matt Rhule while Wisconsin’s fell on Luke Fickell—but what makes them so special? Rhule is coming off of a sorry gig with the Carolina Panthers and Fickell was a head coach at the Power 5 level for just one season (2011-12 Ohio State, which didn’t go well). Why would anyone confidently welcome them aboard?
For starters, it would be unfair to define them by those struggles; how Rhule performed in the NFL should have no bearing on his capabilities in the college game, and Fickell’s one unpleasant season from over a decade ago should not overrule all he’s done since.
Secondly, both of them have proven that they have a knack for flipping teams faster than most could ever dream of.
Rhule is not some one-team wonder
Matt Rhule has served as the head coach for two CFB programs, one in the Group of 5 (Temple) and one in the Power 5 (Baylor). At the time of him leading the Owls into 2013, they were coming off of a 4-7 run. However, entering their 2017 schedule, they were coming off of back-to-back 10-win seasons, the latter of which included a conference title.
When he took on the HC job at Baylor in December of 2016, the Bears had just gone 7-6. Three years later, they were 11-2, had just played in a Big 12 championship and were on their way to the Sugar Bowl. To describe him as consistent would be a criminal understatement.
But despite Rhule having such a lethal fixer-upper gene, there is one thing that Nebraska fans should probably be aware of: He always has what I’ll call his “mulligan year.”
While both Temple and Baylor became winners in spectacular time, neither went without seeing a year that was not just bad, but downright awful. In their first years under Rhule, the Owls went 2-10 (their worst record since 2006) and the Bears went 1-11 (their worst since 1969).
With all of that said, I would normally tell Nebraska fans to expect a 2023 stretch that will treat their Cornhuskers worse than Scott Frost ever did. Yet for what it’s worth, they can rest comfortably knowing that if ugliness of that severity were to unfold, it would likely be short-lived.
Luke Fickell’s accolades go far beyond legacy-defining
When looking at Fickell’s head coaching résumé, it’s evident that he’s put his pathetic display at OSU in the dirt for good, and it’s all thanks to his time with the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Fickell succeeded Tommy Tuberville at UC when its football program was on a steady decline. Tuberville took over a 10-win squad, which soon lowered its standards to nine wins, then to seven, and then to four by the time he finally took a hike.
Fickell’s first run with the Cats ended at 4-8, neither better nor worse than Tuberville’s last. His second, however, saw the team surge to 11-2, which was then Cincy’s best record in almost 10 years.
From that point onward, Fickell never got the Bearcats less than nine wins in a season. He also led them to three AAC title games, two of which they won. His biggest accomplishment blows all of that out of the water, though, as it not only forever changed the image of the Cincinnati football program, but also that of the Group of 5 altogether.
In their 2021-22 season, the Bearcats went a perfect 13-0, deciding 11 of their wins by double-digit margins. That, of course, included their third conference title game, which they took from an 11-1 Houston squad by two touchdowns.
Their journey was so extravagant that it landed them in the CFP bracket, making them the first Group of 5 team to ever step on such a stage. While they lost in the semifinal to the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, they were still more competitive against them than the Michigan Wolverines were against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Witnessing that much national success at a smaller school—and altering the way we view the Group of 5 in the process—makes for an insanely appealing candidate on the coach-hiring scene, and that is exactly what caught Wisconsin’s eye.
Sure, the Big Ten will definitely be a jarring new environment for Fickell, but with that new environment should come better talent. It’s also worth noting that he won seven of his 12 encounters with Power 5 opponents while at Cincinnati (including Notre Dame). Of those seven, six were decided by multiple possessions. Therefore, bigger fish are seemingly not the end of the world as far as he’s concerned.
And for one last splash of assurance, we can reference the bowl win that he got over Oklahoma State in his first game with the Badgers back in December (though he admittedly didn’t have to do much to get it).
Nebraska and Wisconsin could have it way worse than they do
While all of this proves that none can deny Rhule and Fickell’s gift of picking teams up by their bootstraps, they can’t take all of the credit for their promising 2023 odds. Especially when remembering that we are talking about Big Ten teams, their schedules come off as relatively docile. Let’s take a peek at Nebraska’s first.
It may sound blunt, but it’s undeniable that Nebraska’s three non-conference games are ridiculously soft. Two are at home against Group of 5 teams (Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech, both of which are coming off of 3-9 seasons). Their third is a road game at Colorado—a historically inferior rival who was arguably 2022’s worst Power 5 team.
Big Ten play will not exactly be a cakewalk for the Cornhuskers, but it could certainly be tougher. Of their nine league games, seven of them are set against foes they played last year. Of those seven, one was a win (at Iowa), four were losses decided by seven points or less (vs Northwestern, at Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin), and two were losses decided by three possessions or more (Illinois, at Michigan, with the Wolverines serving as one of three teams from the Big Ten East).
The two East teams that will not be revisited in 2023 were Indiana and Rutgers, both of which fell to Nebraska in pitiful fashion.
Rather, their other two cross-divisional foes for this season will be Maryland and Michigan State. The Terrapins have never come close to beating the Huskers in their two previous meetings and will be on the road. As for the Spartans, they failed to make the postseason last year. With that stuff in mind, a revamped Nebraska could likely beat both of them.
So in conclusion, last year’s Huskers had the potential to go 7-2 in the Big Ten instead of 3-6. With better coaching in Lincoln this time around, it would be foolish to assume they couldn’t actually do so in 2023. At that point, just throw in an unbeaten out-of-conference slate and they’re hitting 10 wins for the first time since the Bo Pelini days.
How gracious is Wisconsin’s schedule?
Looking at the Badgers, three of last year’s regular-season wins—with two being won by double-digit margins—were over squads they will face this year as well (Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska). They will also have two home games against mediocre Group of 5 schools (Buffalo and Georgia Southern) that they should easily take. This group alone can get Wisconsin to five wins.
As for its six losses, three were decided by seven points or less. Of those three, two were over opponents that it’ll also see again this fall (Washington State and Minnesota).
One of the more convincing losses was at Iowa, with the Hawkeyes winning 24-10. Despite that sounding rather concerning, recent memory tells me that Wisconsin actually has a much better chance of winning their 2023 battle than one might think.
There are a couple of interesting things to note about this rivalry’s latest handful of meetings: One is that the Badgers have taken eight of the last 11 (half of them being won by 11 points or more), the other is that this year’s matchup will be taking place in Madison—where they haven’t lost to the Hawkeyes since 2015. In other words, there is a very strong chance that Iowa’s edge over Wisconsin doesn’t make it to Halloween.
All of that brings the potential win total up to eight for the Badgers, but that means there are still four teams we have not yet covered: Rutgers, Illinois, Ohio State and Indiana. Don’t get too excited, though, these guys aren’t too difficult to tackle. We’ll start with tying a bow on the list of wins.
The Scarlet Knights are not only worse than the Badgers today, but they have been nothing more than punching bags every single time the two squads have faced off (one of four meetings decided by under 37 points). While the Hoosiers won their last run-in with Wisconsin by eight points, it was their first time winning in their lopsided rivalry since 2002—and they also currently suck. So in short, this duo will result in two more UW triumphs.
Illinois and Ohio State are where things get dicey
That just leaves Illinois and OSU, whose 2022 margins of victory over the Badgers average out to about 28 points. That doesn’t sound particularly encouraging for UW fans, and that’s because it isn’t.
To be frank, no one annihilates Wisconsin quite like the Buckeyes do. They lead their all-time series with the Badgers by an alarmingly uncompetitive 44 games (62-18-5). Along with that, the Badgers have prevailed in only one meeting since 2004.
Wisconsin is lucky enough to host the Buckeyes this year, and the last time it saw anything worse than a seven-point loss to them in Madison was all the way back in 2000. However, I simply cannot bring myself to humor a Badgers win in a series that is so one-sided. I’d be far more willing to consider Wisconsin’s chances of beating Illinois.
UW’s history with the Fighting Illini has been far more entertaining, with the former holding a narrow 44-38-7 advantage. Yet in the last 30 years, Illinois has failed to stand much of a chance, with last season’s victory being only their fifth in the rivalry since 1992.
It’s not easy to stare that mismatch in the face and give the Illini the nod, but I’m going to anyway. My reason for doing so ties back to just how good that fifth win was.
They downed the Badgers 34-10 in Madison; the point differential was the largest it’s been in the Illini’s favor since 1988. Them going back home in 2023 after looking that much better on the road in 2022 is impossible to ignore.
But, in spite of me giving Illinois the benefit of the doubt, my previous analysis still gives Wisconsin a decent shot to win as many as 10 games—a total that fans would unquestionably accept.
I can’t promise how either Nebraska or Wisconsin will do this year, but combining their quick-working coaches with their feasible schedules illustrates a beautiful opportunity for them to get their new eras started off right. And even if they can’t get things going quite that soon, it’s a safe bet that they’ll both be sitting amongst the best in the Big Ten by 2026 or so. When compared to what last season dealt them, I’d call that a rather fast turnaround.