The Tulane Green Wave football team is coming off a spectacular 12-2 season, but we shouldn’t expect that caliber of play to last very long.
As fans of college football, we’ll often see a team serve as the nation’s underdog. Sure, several teams can defy expectations to at least some degree, but there is nothing more refreshing than a “little guy” making an outstanding (and nationally-relevant) run.
This is especially the case when discussing teams that are not only smaller, but also historically mediocre. For example, Boise State is always a fun story, but the Broncos are known for being a top-tier squad in the Group of 5. With that said, many would likely prefer to see a team without that image—such as Charlotte or New Mexico—rip off a stunning year or two.
In a sport like CFB, where there is an annoyance due to the consistent lack of “variety” amongst contenders, it’s simply nice for a change of pace. Last year, while there were multiple Group of 5 teams that came to play (South Alabama, Troy, UTSA, etc.), one stood out above all the others: the Tulane Green Wave.
Tulane was one of just two names at the Group of 5 level to hit 12 wins or more (the only other being the aforementioned Troy), and one of five in the entire FBS.
How Tulane took 2022 by storm
The Green Wave had established its potential early in the season, beating the Kansas State Wildcats (who went on to win the Big 12) in September. As the weeks went by, America watched the Wave crash down on foes like the SMU Mustangs (whom Tulane had only beaten once since 2008) and Cincinnati Bearcats (a squad featured in the 2021-22 CFP bracket).
The success led to the program’s first-ever AAC title game appearance, which it won over the UCF Knights 45-28. That left the Green Wave with an 11-2 record and a date with USC in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl. The Trojans were coming in with legendary head coach Lincoln Riley and Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams, undoubtedly making them Tulane’s toughest challengers yet.
Despite being down by 15 with under five minutes to go, the Green Wave came back to pull out the narrow 46-45 victory. The upset made for one of the best matchups of the postseason and one of the best Cotton Bowls of all time. It also made the thought of 2022-23 being Tulane’s greatest season ever nearly impossible to deny.
The journey was a fun one to follow from start to finish, but it was the miraculous conclusion in particular that painted the Wave out as having gone through an overnight transition—one that switched it from a forgettable pushover to a menacing giant-slayer. That kind of storyline makes college football so much more chaotic, which is a big reason as to why fans of the sport are so passionate about it.
With that in mind, I think I speak for everyone when I say that it’d be awesome to watch Tulane unleash another run like last year’s. However, that actually happening feels more like a dream than a reality.
The Green Wave has been dealt two lethal blows
There are two things a team should keep an eye on when approaching a season: its roster and its schedule. Unfortunately for Tulane, it seems to be troubled in both departments.
For starters, the Wave has lost some serious talent on both sides of the ball. Of its five statistical leaders from last year, only two will be returning in the fall (passing leader QB Michael Pratt and interceptions leader DB Jarius Monroe). Its leading rusher (RB Tyjae Spears), leading receiver (WR Shae Wyatt) and leading tackler (LB Dorian Williams) have all moved on to the NFL.
Especially with all of that failing to address the several undrafted free agents it produced, it’s safe to say that Tulane is looking like a shell of its 2022 self on paper.
As for the schedule, there is a visible inclusion of new faces—and mean ones—that make the Green Wave’s odds of meeting last year’s standard all the more difficult to bet on.
Its out-of-conference opponents make up the first four games on the slate, and they are far from a weak bunch. The Wave opens up hosting the South Alabama Jaguars (who won 10 games last season) and Ole Miss Rebels (an eight-win SEC squad). After that, it’s a road trip to Southern Mississippi (a team that has both a 2022 win over the Wave and a 1300-yard rusher in RB Frank Gore Jr.) before heading back home to face Nicholls State.
If Tulane isn’t careful, it could be staring down a 1-3 record before league play even begins. Speaking of which, that won’t exactly be a cakewalk either.
Just how dangerous is the AAC competition looking?
The first couple of games that should stand out to the Green Wave are road trips to Memphis and East Carolina, as both are coming off of winning seasons. To make matters worse, the former has been quite the source of heartache over the years.
While the Wave has been more competitive with Memphis recently (going as far as to win by two possessions in 2022), the Tigers have often been on the side of victory over the last 30 years or so. From 1990 to now, the two AAC powers have met on 25 separate occasions, with 19 going to Memphis. That leaves Tulane with a whopping six wins in the rivalry’s modern history, and just one of them was on the road (1998). Beyond that, there’s just the 1981 meeting.
With the concept of winning in Memphis being so foreign to the Wave, the Tigers falling to it at home this year is in no way promised. The saddest part is that all that talk was just for one game (technically two if you remember us glossing over ECU). We haven’t even touched on the new opponents yet.
The American Athletic Conference will be adding six new members this summer—Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA—Tulane is set to encounter five of them. Of those five, three are coming off non-losing seasons and two will be at home. The biggest threat of them all will likely be UTSA, as the Roadrunners have gone 23-5 in their last two seasons and have multiple playmakers returning.
In summary, that leaves a frighteningly weakened Green Wave with a landmine-coated schedule. Does that mean that next year will be a bad one for the team? No, not necessarily. However, will it be another magical one, decorated with iconic moments while sitting underneath a national spotlight? Sounds a bit too good to be true if you ask me.