Billy Napier has had an interesting tenure with Florida football thus far. Fans were excited about his hire before the 2022 season but he went just 6-7 with losses to rivals Kentucky and Florida State, ending the year on a three-game losing skid as well.
Heading into the 2023 season without Anthony Richardson, the Gators have to temper their expectations, but I think this team finishes even better.
Following spring ball, how do I see Florida’s season playing out?
Last year, Florida was able to upset Utah in Gainesville and it really kicked off the Billy Napier era on the right foot. However, I don’t see that happening this time around in Salt Lake City. The Utes are just too tough to beat at home, even for a team from the SEC.
The Gators will also be breaking in a new quarterback and Graham Mertz will have a lot of proving to do after this one.
Napier’s first season started with a big ranked win over Utah but his second year will yield a big ranked loss to the same Utes.
Prediction: Loss (0-1)
This one will obviously conclude with a win for the Gators. McNeese won’t pose much of a threat as a visiting FCS school, but Florida will need this tune-up as it’ll be facing an SEC rival the following week.
This is a chance for Mertz to get back on track. And he will.
Prediction: Win (1-1)
To kick off conference play, Florida will host Tennessee. The Volunteers will look a little different this year without Hendon Hooker at quarterback, giving way to the strong-armed Joe Milton. Many are high on Milton, but I think his past shows that he’s more of a rocket arm than anything else.
Florida is going to surprise some people and start SEC play with a win over the Volunteers as Milton throws a couple of big interceptions to seal the victory for the Gators.
The run game will carry the Gator offense.
Prediction: Win (2-1, 1-0 SEC)
Charlotte was one of the worst teams in the Group of Five last year and they may be even worse this year in the AAC. The 49ers went 3-9 last year and they’re projected to finish at the bottom of the AAC.
It won’t be a very welcoming season for Charlotte in the new conference nor will Gainesville be too kind to this team.
Prediction: Win (3-1)
Kentucky is losing Will Levis but gaining Devin Leary. It’s a tough loss at quarterback as Levis was one of the best the SEC had to offer and he nearly went in the first round of the NFL draft. The offense could take a bit of a step back.
The Wildcats went into Gainesville and picked up a big win over the Gators last season but I can see Florida returning the favor in Lexington at the end of September.
Big win for Billy Napier and Florida.
Prediction: Win (4-1, 2-0)
For years, Vanderbilt has been one of the worst teams in the Power Five, but Clark Lea has the Commodores trending back in the right direction.
Vanderbilt finished 5-7 last season which may not be good for most programs, but for the Commodores, this is progress. Fans have to be excited about the future of the program under Lea.
Despite that improvement, the Gators are going to pick up a big win here and improve to 5-1 on the season.
Prediction: Win (5-1, 3-0)
![Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Dominick Blaylock (8) catches the ball but has it stripped for an interception on the way down from Florida Gators safety Jadarrius Perkins (27) during the second quarter of an NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Georgia Bulldogs outlasted the Florida Gators 42-20. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]Flgai 102922 Florida Vs Georgia 61](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_16,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape/cover/sport/4865493f206e577f3af945d31d598e7c20ca585386de8f33d9b52be035e30444.jpg "Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Dominick Blaylock (8) catches the ball but has it stripped for an interception on the way down from Florida Gators safety Jadarrius Perkins (27) during the second quarter of an NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Georgia Bulldogs outlasted the Florida Gators 42-20. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]Flgai 102922 Florida Vs Georgia 61")
In the middle of a five-game winning streak, Florida will have the tough task of heading down to South Carolina and facing another improving program. The Gamecocks return Spencer Rattler next season when most thought he’d only be there one year and that makes them a borderline-ranked team.
It’s going to be tough to go into South Carolina and come out with a win. The Gators will fall just short and drop their first game in SEC play.
Prediction: Loss (5-2, 3-1)
Things don’t get any easier for Florida after a bye that follows up its first SEC loss of the season. The Gators will head to Jacksonville for the annual “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” rivalry game against the Georgia Bulldogs.
The two-time defending national champs will have their way with Graham Mertz and the Gators yet again.
Florida will put up a fight for a half but that’s going to be it. This game will be over by the end of the third quarter.
Prediction: Loss (5-3, 3-2)
![Florida Gators safety Tre’Vez Johnson (16) domes in with a fist to punch the ball out of LSU Tigers running back Josh Williams (27) hands in the second half at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 15, 2022. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]Ncaa Football Florida Gators Vs Lsu Tigers](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_16,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape/cover/sport/6a6e276605369f677e686b0300eb5b4c6dd6c1dd4d50831134c5f21b3bf3f557.jpg "Florida Gators safety Tre’Vez Johnson (16) domes in with a fist to punch the ball out of LSU Tigers running back Josh Williams (27) hands in the second half at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 15, 2022. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]Ncaa Football Florida Gators Vs Lsu Tigers")
I’m a little higher on Arkansas heading into the season than most, but Florida will get the better of KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders.
I think Arkansas has a chance to surprise some people this season but they just won’t be able to overcome the hostile Gainesville environment and Florida will pick up a big and potentially ranked win.
The Gators get back on track after a two-game losing skid.
Prediction: Win (6-3, 4-2)
The mid-to-late season slate for Florida is brutal. After facing South Carolina, Georgia, and Arkansas in back-to-back-to-back games, the Gators will have to face an elite LSU team in Baton Rouge. That’s a stretch that I wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy.
Florida is going to have a tough time stopping or slowing Jayden Daniels who I believe will improve to a Heisman-caliber level this season.
LSU runs away with a win here.
Prediction: Loss (6-4, 4-3)
How does Florida respond to losing 3-of-4 games? It’ll have a chance to bounce back against a very beatable SEC team. Missouri just won’t be making any noise next season.
Florida is going to put up some numbers in this second-to-last game of the year. The Gators will get back into the win column and end SEC play with a victory, officially securing a winning percentage over .500 in league play.
Prediction: Win (7-4, 5-3)
Florida State got the better of Florida last season in the annual year-ending rivalry game, 45-38. I do expect this one to be a high-scoring affair as well, but it’ll go back in the favor of the Gators.
Billy Napier will secure his first win over the Seminoles as Florida head coach and the Gators will end the regular season with another ranked win and an 8-4 record which will surpass most people’s expectations.
Am I crazy for projecting Florida to finish 8-4? Probably.
Prediction: Win (8-4)