2023 kicks off a huge season of change at the Group of Five level.
The age of the BCS Buster are long gone, but they set the stage for the future of college football.
Teams like Boise State, Utah, and TCU led the charge in getting the “little guys” noticed at the big-time level. Now, there is nothing to bust. The Group of Five has an automatic bid into the New Year’s Six bowl games. They’ve even managed to parlay that into a College Football Playoff appearance thanks to undefeated Cincinnati in 2021.
Things get even better for the Group of Five in 2024 when one program is guaranteed a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff. Will that team be disrespected at the highest level and always get the 12 seed just because they’re not Power Five? Or will they get whatever seed they truly earn? That remains to be seen.
Here’s some even better news for the G5: the race is about to be as wide open as wide open gets.
Why is that? With the exception of Boise State, most perennial G5 powers are now in the Power Five, and you know Boise’s time is coming. TCU and Utah have long been with the Power Five. Former Playoff team Cincinnati has joined the Big 12, as has fellow former-AAC members Houston, who defeated Penn State in the 2015 Peach Bowl, as well as UCF, who has appeared in both the 2018 Peach and 2014 & 2019 Fiesta Bowls.
In fact, since the College Football Playoff’s New Year’s Six system was introduced with Group of Five participation guaranteed in 2014, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF have combined for four of ten New Year’s Six appearances.
BYU, whose status between the Power Five and Group of Five varied depending on who you asked, is off to the Big 12 as well. San Diego State, a consistent Mountain West contender that hasn’t made it to January 1 yet, sent the Mountain West their notice that they intend to leave in the future, presumably to the Pac-12. You’d have to think the Pac-12 isn’t going to just add one team. Boise State and SMU seem like the two most likely candidates.
That’s a lot of change. But in college football, change is opportunity.
Who will grab that brass ring that hasn’t already reached those heights? Maybe not in 2023, but over the next few years, these five teams are the ones to watch. Plus, one outside-the-box team, and you’ll understand why I say that.
UTSA Roadrunners
The easiest choice for 2023, UTSA takes a step up from Conference USA into the AAC. The Roadrunners return star quarterback Frank Harris and an elite offense to San Antonio, leading what could be the best team in program history into one of the most important seasons in program history.
UTSA has a solid head coach in Jeff Traylor, who doesn’t appear to be going anywhere for the foreseeable future after signing a contract extension that runs through 2031 a couple of years ago.
The Roadrunners had 24/7 Sports’ 59th-ranked recruiting class in 2023, which is pretty solid for a Group of Five program. It’s a class that should set up UTSA pretty nicely for a few years. The biggest question UTSA will face going forward is replacing Frank Harris.
SMU Mustangs
SMU is the definition of a “sleeping giant” in the college football world.
In the heart of Dallas, there’s no shortage of top recruits surrounding the Mustangs. But still, the dark cloud of the Pony Express era continues to hang over the heads of SMU football.
They’ll be a contender this year for a big-time bowl in the AAC. The Mustangs face Oklahoma and TCU this year and miss both UTSA and Tulane on the schedule.
But how do the moves of Texas and Houston affect SMU? Both programs upgraded – Texas to the SEC and Houston to the Big 12 – so it’s possible SMU is hurt by these moves in recruiting, especially the Houston move. Houston will have a slight upper hand on SMU with the ability to claim Power Five status. How long will Houston have that advantage? To be determined.
Rhett Lashlee leads the Mustangs into his second year and like any second-year coach, it’s not clear yet if he’s “the guy.” Best case, he is and can use his offensive skill to build the Mustangs into the power they were and eventually a Power Five conference. Worst case, SMU should be looked at as a top job in the Group of Five at a place where winning is very doable.
App State Mountaineers
Appalachian State is no stranger to success. It’s been 17 years (17?!) since the upset of Michigan at The Big House and the Mountaineers are still using that win as an example of what the program can be.
Since returning to the FBS level in 2014, App State’s worst record is 6-6. They’ve won ten games five times in those nine seasons. Not even Notre Dame has had that consistent level of success in that time period. In fact, App State’s 86 wins are more than Notre Dame (85.) It’s also more than Oregon (78) and even those Michigan Wolverines (79) that they upset all those years ago.
So what’s missing? A New Year’s Six berth.
All of that consistency has to be rewarded at some point, right? Unfortunately, the Sun Belt isn’t the AAC, but it’s also not the punching bag it used to be. Marshall is usually a quality team, and FCS power James Madison got off to a hot start in their FBS debut with an 8-3 record that led to being ranked. Troy bounced back last year with their first conference title in many years. There will be some good competition in this conference.
And the non-conference schedule? Well, App State took North Carolina to the limit last year and upset Texas A&M. North Carolina returns to the schedule this year. In future years, Clemson, NC State and South Carolina will appear. All Shawn Clark has to do is keep the momentum going and the Mountaineers will be in the first big-time bowl game in program history.
UAB Blazers
I hate to pick another AAC team, but it’s hard to ignore what UAB has going for it.
Since being resurrected from the dead in 2017, UAB went from no program to two-time Conference USA Champions and one of the most consistent programs out there. Last year was a bit of a dip, but the excuse was valid: head coach Bill Clark stepped away in June due to health reasons, and the dip wasn’t that bad: they won seven games including the Bahamas Bowl.
UAB just invested a ton of money in facilities, a 46,000 square foot, $22.5 million indoor practice facility, and three outdoor practice fields. And don’t forget the $175 million Protective Stadium which opened in 2021.
The Blazers are another program in fertile recruiting ground. Yes, Alabama and Auburn will grab all of the top in-state recruits, but that could be a blessing in disguise for the Blazers. How so? The pitch should be simple: “We think you’re good enough to be at Alabama or Auburn, but they don’t. Come to UAB and show them exactly what they’re passing on.”
UAB has proven they have the support of the community and boosters. They’re the reason Blazer football even exists anymore. UAB has everything they need. If they use their resources correctly, they could be the next UCF.
San Jose State Spartans
Alright, this one isn’t happening this year. But in time, it’s a real possibility.
First of all, I think Brent Brennan is one of the most underrated head coaches at any level in college football. Overall, the results have been average, but people forget just how empty Rod Caragher left the Spartans. Brennan’s first two seasons were about as bad as bad gets, but he’s built the program back up to respectability.
If you want a glimpse of what San Jose State football under Brent Brennan could look like, take a walk back in time to 2020. Yes, I know it’s the Covid year, but the Spartans went 7-1, defeated Boise State to win the Mountain West Championship, and ranked as high as number 19 in the country.
San Jose State has not experienced back-to-back bowl games since 1986-87, but that feat looks possible in 2023.
In a state like California, San Jose State is always going to be “little brother” to USC and UCLA. But you know what could help the Spartans? The downfall and instability of fellow Northern California school Stanford. San Jose State probably won’t get the four-star recruits the Cardinal used to, but even just one would go a long way. What the Spartans should look at are the two and three-star guys that turn into the program changers. Yes, Stanford is the bigger name, but if you want to win now and build something special in the process, San Jose is the place to be.
The Long Shot
They’re not a long shot because of talent. They’re not a long shot because of their geographic location. They’ve proven that year after year. And they’re damn sure not a long shot because of success. It’s all positioning. And that should change in the future.
Who are they? They’re the North Dakota State Bison.
I have been a long believer that by the end of the decade, the Bison will be an FBS program. With the news that San Diego State is bolting from the Mountain West, don’t be shocked if Boise State follows. One of those is a big blow. But both? The Mountain West will need to make a huge splash to replace a program(s) of that caliber.
What better program to bring in than THE most dominant program of the 2010s?
North Dakota State is no stranger to adjusting leagues. They were a Division 2 school at the turn of the century. They didn’t join D-1 until 2004. They weren’t eligible for the FCS Playoffs until 2008. In 19 seasons since joining the FCS, the Bison have won the NINE National Championships. They didn’t win their first until 2011. That’s nine of 12 seasons ending with a championship. You know that Alabama dynasty everyone is sick of? They only have six titles in 14 years.
North Dakota State can play with anyone even now. Minnesota, Kansas, Colorado State, and 13th-ranked Iowa have all lost to the Bison.
Imagine what this machine could do with the FBS money and name to go with it. I have a feeling it’s only a matter of time before we find out.