Matt Campbell watched his Iowa State football team crash and burn in 2022. If he can’t turn things back around in Ames, where might we see him next?
When knowing the history behind the Iowa State football program, it might be hard to imagine that it won nine games (the last of which was a major bowl) just a few years ago—but it did, and one of the gentlemen that got the most love for it was head coach Matt Campbell.
Campbell first led the Cyclones into battle in 2016 and has since given them five winning seasons, three of which saw eight wins or more. To give an idea of how monumental that stat is, Iowa State football had just one year with eight wins or more between 1978 and Campbell’s arrival.
With that success in mind, it’s hard to imagine Campbell going anywhere but up in his coaching career; if he can give such a sorry program that kind of stability, what could go wrong? I would say nothing, but only if said stability can remain intact—which it’s seemingly struggling to do.
Think about it: We just analyzed Campbell’s ISU résumé by looking at the clash between the program’s historical standards and his number of winning seasons, but that’s not the only way to break this matter down. In fact, we can apply much more context to it, and that makes things visibly less lovely.
A different perspective does a lot to Campbell’s image
As previously established, the most that Matt Campbell has gotten his Cyclones is nine wins, and that’s great. However, he only did so once; that doesn’t sound particularly promising when we’re looking for a performance built on consistency.
To make matters worse, that win count was hit in 2020, a year many would slap an asterisk next to because of how chaotic it was with altered schedules and rosters (big props to the COVID-19 pandemic for that doozy). He also had stars like quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall at his disposal, and they deserve their own cuts of the credit for reaching nine wins anyway.
Don’t get me wrong, Matt Campbell is still a good coach, but those facts have me asking myself what he’s done for me lately, and the honest answer is not much.
But let’s not get so pessimistic just yet. Perhaps there is still some sort of respectable standard that the Cyclones have managed to retain under his control, like a streak of positive seasons, or maybe a streak of bowl appearances? If we were discussing this topic last summer, those kinds of stretches would not only be active but also several years long. Unfortunately, the 2022 squad was responsible for the demise of both.
Upon falling to TCU by an ungodly score of 62-14, Iowa State had concluded its season with a 4-8 record, its worst result since Campbell’s first in Ames. The run was so poor that it left the Iowa State football sitting at the bottom of the Big 12 standings, as a convincing victory over a non-bowl West Virginia was the sole thing that kept them from finishing league play winless. That is objectively pathetic regardless of where you’re coaching.
But Campbell shouldn’t be judged by ISU’s 2022 display—yet
None of this is meant to imply that we should define Campbell’s worth by last season; especially when considering all that good stuff he’s pulled off at Iowa State football, doing so would be insanely unfair. Heck, even six of the team’s eight losses in 2022 were decided by seven points or less, so it can definitely be asserted that there is still more to the Cyclones than meets the eye. But what if there isn’t?
In other words, let’s say that their inability to pull away from big games follows them into the next season or two, and they spend their foreseeable future in the Big 12 basement. Would there be any heat applied to Campbell’s seat?
I think one could argue yes, as all universities—even ones as snake-bitten as Iowa State—would like to hit a higher ceiling than that of just one questionable, lightning-in-a-bottle year that was achieved in what could be a far tougher conference. But if that turns out to be the case and ISU goes as far as parting ways with Campbell (or vice versa), what would the next chapter of his career have in store for him?
At this point, his Cyclones would be years removed from even holding the status of “good,” and again, that’d be in spite of him coaching in the could-be-better Big 12. Therefore, the idea of him moving up the CFB food chain comes off as rather unlikely (unless one of the larger fish out there hits an alarming level of desperation). Instead, I’d much sooner humor the thought of him moving down to a historically and/or recently successful member of the Group of 5. But who?
Campbell’s best option is easy to overlook
For many, the first name to come to mind would probably be one like the Memphis Tigers, as they’re a big GO5 brand that’s previously served as a top-notch team in their conference, which is the exact description we’re looking for.
However, there is another that, when compared to a Memphis, holds a stronger combination of practicality and need. It has been more formidable since 2010, suffered a worse season in 2022, is part of a conference that’s easier to compete in, and has a longer-tenured head coach with a worse record. That team is the Northern Illinois Huskies.
NIU has been a relatively consistent football program over the course of the 21st century so far, having 17 winning seasons—six of which saw double-digit win counts—and a plethora of postseason appearances to go with them. I think we could all agree that a résumé as impressive as that one is enough for the Huskies to check the aforementioned box about being “historically and/or recently successful.” But with that said, just how far have they fallen to now be in a position where they’re waiting for a hero (Campbell) to come save them?
Well, there’s no nice way to put it: The Huskies have seen some downright terrible runs in the past few years, and the fact that I can say such a thing knowing that they won their latest Mid-American Conference title in 2021 speaks to just how terrible they’ve been.
That 2021 campaign (which held a final record of 9-5), has been the only one of their last four seasons to finish positive. That alone is rough, but what puts things over the top is the abysmal nature of the showings that bookended it.
Neither 2020 nor 2022 were anything short of cruel to Northern Illinois
The Huskies went 0-6 in 2020, and while I’ve already established that we’re taking the COVID season at less value, that still stands as just the fourth winless year they’ve ever had. A slightly superior 3-9 followed 2021, but that was nonetheless their worst full-season performance since 2007.
Eyesores this severe will undoubtedly have NIU head coach Thomas Hammock, who’s entering his fifth season in DeKalb, feeling some simmering of his own in good time. If he can’t escape his struggles, Northern Illinois could be looking to make a change at HC sooner rather than later.
That’s what ties this all back to Matt Campbell—if he’s going to be on the market in a couple of years, his career path could align perfectly with NIU’s search for the next captain of its ship.
Look, is he sure to be forced out of Iowa State if his Cyclones flop in the coming season(s)? Of course not, but it’s always smart to acknowledge when a coach appears to be getting in over his head.
Also, there’s nothing shameful about dropping to a smaller name; we’ve seen guys like Charlie Strong, Jim McElwain, and Willie Taggart do so simply because their prior circumstances were a bit larger than what they could handle. Especially if the money’s nice, he’d have nothing to lose by giving it a shot.
The outcome would be Campbell having a job that is much more his speed in regards to striking consistent excellence, along with the Huskies having their most proven HC hire in years (based on résumé at the time of acquisition). To me, that sounds like a match made in Heaven.