Can Brian Newberry turn around Navy Football?
The 21st Century has been good for Navy Football. Since 2000, the Midshipmen have gone to 15 bowl games, won 10 or more games four times, and finished in the top 25 three times. To add context, the Navy had gone to three bowl games in the previous twenty years. Much of that success can be attributed to Ken Niumatalolo.
“Coach Ken” had a run from 2012-2017 that is the best in school history. The Naval Academy went to six straight bowl games, winning eleven games in 2015.
The last three years have not been kind to the Midshipmen. After winning 11 games in 2019, the Navy would win 11 games in the next three years. As a result, the Academy decided to part ways with Niumatalolo at the end of last season.
Instead of Navy football going outside the program and bringing in a new philosophy with new ideas, the Academy administration hired internally. Defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted to head coach during the offseason.
Curiously, the Navy did not go outside the existing staff since the program has been down for the last three seasons. How will the Midshipmen fare with Newberry at the helm? Here is a closer look at the offense, defense, and the schedule.
Can the Navy Football rushing attack get back to form?
The staple of the Navy football offense is the triple-option running game. The offense has stagnated over the last few years because the running game has not been up to snuff. For four of the previous five years, the Navy has averaged under 300 yards per game and less than five yards per rush.
The staff has tried to incorporate other concepts in the offense — including some shotgun read-option –, but it has not galvanized an offense that hit its stride in 2019.
Longtime Kennesaw State coordinator Grant Chestnut comes to Annapolis to add some layers to the Midshipmen offense. Chestnut is a triple option disciple, but he does use some spread concepts in the system. What Navy football needs is one quarterback who can run the entire system.
Xavier Arline, Tai Lavatai, and Blake Horvath are vying for the starting quarterback job. There are a lot of receivers that have experience in the program. How many of them fit the scheme Chestnut wants to run?
Daba Fofana and Anton Hall return to lead the running game, along with whoever wins the quarterback job.
Where the Midshipmen need to show improvement is the offensive line. There are two issues with this. First, the rules on chop blocking affect the option run game, and they might not be good enough to protect the quarterback in pass protection.
How good will Navy Football’s defense be in 2023?
The Midshipmen were bend don’t break in 2022. Navy football play’s disciplined, team defense. It doesn’t give up big plays and is aided by an offense that keeps the football for 60 percent of the game. With Brian Newberry moving up to head coach, PJ Volker now leads the defense.
There were issues last year, but the defense was not one of them. The Navy was the best in the AAC in third-down defense, second in sacks, and they led the nation in rush defense. Of their eight losses, they allowed 30 or more points four times. If there was one weakness to the defense, it was the pass defense.
The pass rush covered a mediocre secondary 98th in pass yards allowed last year. John Marshall, who led the Middies in sacks, tackles for loss, and total tackles, is done at the Academy. Jacob Busic must carry the load getting to the quarterback. However, the scheme should stay the same.
That means pressure from everywhere, so expect four or five defenders with four or five sacks. The secondary is experienced; hopefully, that experience translates into better play on the back end. Teams efficiently threw the football and could stay ahead of the chains.
How many games will Navy Football win this fall?
It looks like 2023 will be challenging for the Midshipmen again. It’s hard to know how Newberry will impact the program. The issue wasn’t effort last year; they didn’t have the players.
8/26 vs. Notre Dame L: The season starts brutal for the Naval Academy. They travel to Dublin to play the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame wins this game.
9/9 vs. Wagner W: Navy gets to lick its wounds in the home opener.
9/14 at Memphis L: Conference play begins against one of the teams looking to contend in the American Athletic Conference. Tigers win.
9/30 vs. USF W: This is a 50-50 game here. New head Alex Golesh coach might have the Veer and Shoot going in Tampa. If they do, the Navy could lose this one.
10/7 vs. North Texas L: The Mean Green comes into the AAC with a new-look offense and a new head coach. The Navy won’t be able to stop Eric Morris and the passing game.
10/14 at Charlotte L: This is an exciting game. The 49ers have a prolific offense. Can they slow the Midshipmen’s running game? If not, Charlotte could lose this one.
10/21 vs. Air Force L: The Falcons are a contender in the Mountain West. The Air Force grounds and pounds the Midshipmen.
11/4 at Temple W: The Owls and Midshipmen will be at the bottom of the AAC. The Navy won last year, and the Owls are looking for their win back. The Navy wins the pillow fight of the week.
11/11 vs. UAB L: New head coach Trent Dilfer wants to continue Bill Clark’s success in Birmingham. Blazers win on the road.
11/18 vs. East Carolina L: There’s a lot of turnover at ECU, including quarterback Holton Ahlers. But Mike Houston has done an excellent job raising that program’s floor. The Pirates beat the Midshipmen. This game needs a trophy, by the way
11/25 at SMU L: In a game of ironies, the Mustangs’ rushing attack overwhelms the Naval Academy in this one.
12/9 vs. Army L: The Academy plays the Corps tough every season, but the Army keeps the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.