Things are getting crazy when it comes to college football conference realignment and here are some predictions on what could happen next.
The move of Colorado to the Big 12 wasn’t exactly shocking, but it has the potential to set off a series of events in college football conference realignment that could change the sport in a major way.
Since the addition of Colorado, the Big 12 hasn’t been resting on its laurels. There are tons of rumors about Arizona being the next domino in college football conference realignment and the Arizona Board of Regents already met this week, as did Florida State’s.
If Arizona leaves the Pac-12, all hell is going to break loose. There are reports about the Big Ten presidents discussing expansion once again, in light of the Pac-12 potentially falling apart.
The ACC is also in trouble as Florida State is openly talking about leaving in another move that could have a huge impact on college football conference realignment.
If the Big Ten makes a move for 20 teams, will the SEC follow suit? What will happen to Notre Dame or even the ACC if it suffers defections? It feels like college football is ready for a major shakeup and here are some predictions for what could happen next.
Arizona goes to the Big 12
The writing seems to be on the wall here. It’s not really that big of a secret that the Big 12 wants to get to 14 teams and it’s been open in its courtship of Arizona.
You wonder if the Big 12 would stop at 14 teams. Why not make a run at Utah and Arizona State? The Utes reportedly don’t like the idea of following BYU into the Big 12, but there could come a time soon when they won’t have a choice.
If the Pac-12 folds, Utah won’t have any other options. The SEC and Big Ten aren’t going to have an interest. Utah doesn’t move the needle for either league. The Big 12 is different.
If you added Arizona State and Utah, you get some good regional rivalries, even if you don’t get a program with national title-type credentials.
The Big Ten moves to 20
When the Big Ten added USC and UCLA, it showed that geography isn’t going to hold back expansion and the next move seems to be the Pacific Northwest according to a report on Wednesday from Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports.
A group of Big Ten presidents have begun exploratory discussions on expansion in light of Pac 12 uncertainty, industry sources tell Yahoo Sports.
— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) August 2, 2023
Focus is on possibly adding Oregon and Washington to move to 18 members or Cal and Stanford to reach 20. https://t.co/0kJj4twFdq
Oregon and Washington are the top two programs left in the Pac-12. They have the ability to compete for playoff spots and national titles. Oregon has reached the national title game in this new playoff era and Washington also made the playoff.
Geographic regions don’t matter as much anymore, but adding Seattle and Portland to the Big Ten footprint wouldn’t be bad. However, I don’t see it stopping there.
Stanford and Cal always made sense to me for the Big Ten. They would give USC and UCLA a couple of in-state opponents, plus they are prestigious academic institutions.
I could even make an argument for the Big Ten expanding to 24 teams by adding Notre Dame or Pittsburgh, Clemson, Miami, and Florida State.
Honestly, it’s probably not as impossible as we might think — but if the Big Ten gets involved in college football conference realignment – the SEC will too.
Wetzel does note that officials said a decision isn’t imminent, but we all know how quickly things can change in college football realignment.
What will the SEC do?
Florida State threw its hat into the college football conference realignment ring and there are probably a few other ACC programs that are glad they did.
The Pac-12 is still trying to put together a TV deal even though it has nine teams and is on the verge of losing even more. The ACC has a rights deal that is signed through 2036. The problem the deal has much less value than Big Ten/SEC teams are getting and programs like Florida State should rightly be concerned about being left behind.
College football is moving toward two super conferences and programs like Florida State, Miami, and Clemson don’t want to be left out.
If the SEC makes a move at any point, those three teams make a lot of sense. They are big names and make sense geographically, as well as from a rivalry perspective.
I’m sure both the SEC and Big Ten are going to make a run at Notre Dame, but if the Irish can re-up their TV deal with NBC at a favorable dollar rate, the Irish might not need to join a conference.
What conference is going to fall apart?
My prediction is the Pac-12.
The league is already under 10 teams and is struggling to complete a TV deal. I’m wondering if the idea of a merger between the Big-12 and Pac-12 will still be on the table, although if four more teams leave the Pac-12 and just five remain, there won’t be many options.
Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State would have no choice. Oregon State and Washington State would be in the same boat. Toss in Boise State and San Diego State or maybe a couple of ACC or American schools and the Big 12 could get to 20 easily.
Before long, college football conference realignment could mean three or four super conferences of 20 teams, with everyone else left out in the cold.
Things like that have been predicted before, but if more teams leave the Pac-12 soon, which could happen as early as this week, it seems like at least one or two Power-5 conferences will be on the verge of changing forever.