College football: Preseason AP Top 25 projections for 2023

Folks, we have officially hit the month of August, which means that college football is right around the corner. Yes, we will have football played this month as Week 0 is only a few weeks away.

We’re also just a couple of weeks away from the release of the preseason AP Top 25. In fact, the first poll doesn’t come out until noon Eastern on Aug. 15. Fans are already chomping at the bit to find out where their favorite team is going to be slotted.

The top five teams ahead of the season are generally the same, but the rest of the AP Top 25 could be a surprise. There are about 35-40 teams that could legitimately make the first rankings in a couple of weeks but the media has to keep it to just 25. It’s going to be interesting to see how many teams each power conference contributes, especially since some of the best Group of Five teams (Cincinnati, Houston) headed to the Power Five this offseason.

Georgia is the two-time reigning national champion so it’s fair to believe that the Bulldogs will be No. 1 yet again to start the season but there are a few teams that will push for that spot.

Plus, there are some question mark teams like TCU that had great 2022 seasons but key losses may set it back in a big way.

How do I see the preseason AP Top 25 playing out in a couple of weeks?

Do I think South Carolina is a top 25 team at this point? I’m not 100 percent sold, but that’s why this is projections rather than just my personal take. The Gamecocks are a popular team showing up on a lot of AP Top 25 projection polls. This was a close one between Texas Tech and South Carolina, but with Spencer Rattler returning, I figured the hype would surround the Gamecocks more.

Oregon State shocked everyone and won double-digit games last season but they got even better by adding DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback. OK, so maybe DJU has been considered inconsistent, but if he can live up to his potential in Corvallis, the Beavers could legitimately win the Pac-12 title. This is one of the best teams from the dying conference.

Tulane came out of nowhere last year and won 12 games, beating USC in the Cotton Bowl. Willie Fritz has 14 starters returning to that New Year’s Six bowl-winning team including starting quarterback Michael Pratt who could be the difference between 10-plus wins again and a disappointing season. This is still the best Group of Five team out there.

Conner Weigman should be the steady force that Texas A&M needs at quarterback and the offense will be vastly improved this year. Defensively, there’s as much talent as there’s ever been in College Station following a couple of elite recruiting classes so that side of the ball will be a strength. As long as the offense improves, that 5-7 season in 2022 will be a long-lost memory.

People seem to forget that Kansas State won the Big 12 title last season because TCU went on to make the national title game, but Chris Klieman is building something special in Manhattan. The Wildcats return Will Howard at quarterback and bring in Treshaun Ward from Florida State at running back, but that defense has to improve if they plan on repeating.

A new era of Wisconsin football is being ushered in by Luke Fickell. The Paul Chryst era fizzled out last season as the Badgers went from preseason contenders to limping to a bowl game. Now, Fickell leads the way with Tanner Mordecai coming in to boost that passing game. Braelon Allen is already one of the nation’s top running backs and now he’ll be leading a Big Ten West favorite.

Drake Maye has put his name in the hat for the preseason Heisman hype list and there’s a good chance he’s the best quarterback in college football not named Caleb Williams. That alone is good enough to get the Tar Heels into the top 15-20 range to start the season. Mack Brown has built a nice roster, but Maye is the difference between an average team and a top-20 one.

TCU had a magical 2022 season but it ended with a bang in the national title game as Georgia ran up the score on the Horned Frogs, showing them just how far they still have to go. Sonny Dykes might have had some beginner’s luck in Fort Worth or maybe he’s building something special. Whatever it is, he’ll have to do it without Max Duggan.

A lot of people are bullish on Lane Kiffin and the Rebels coming off an eight-win season and I’m in that same boat. The Rebels bring back Jaxson Dart at quarterback but he’ll be pushed by Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard so he’s going to have to be great. That’s good news for the offense and the defense should keep improving.

I know, a team with a losing record last season making the preseason AP Top 25 seems ridiculous, but I’m telling you the hype around Brent Venables and Oklahoma is palpable. Many believe the Sooners will actually win the Big 12 this season before moving to the SEC. I think it’s possible with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, but I’m not sure enough has been proven for this team to be AP Top 25-worthy. You’ll see the media believe otherwise.

Every single year, Utah seems to be overlooked by just about everyone. This season is no different. The Utes are coming off two straight Pac-12 titles and they’re bringing back Cameron Rising. They should be the conference title favorites again, right? I mean, they did just beat USC twice last year. Well, the media will have Kyle Whittingham’s team fighting for respect again around No. 15.

This is the one team that I think may take a step back in the top 15 this season. Tennessee had an incredible 2022 season and won the Orange Bowl over Clemson, but Hendon Hooker is gone and I have a hard time buying into the Joe Milton hype. Still, people are high on Josh Heupel and the Volunteers. Some will probably even vote them in as a top-10 team.

Am I as high on Texas as everyone else? No, but I do think the offense could be a problem for the rest of the Big 12 this season, especially with Arch Manning coming in to challenge Quinn Ewers. But my biggest caveat regarding the Longhorns’ Big 12 title hopes would be the fact that Steve Sarkisian hasn’t shown that he’s anything better than average yet.

Before the 2022 season, many were uncertain about the future of Oregon under Dan Lanning because he opted to go with Bo Nix at quarterback after he struggled at Auburn. It turns out, that was a great decision as Nix was one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He’s back and so is an electric offense and a defense loaded with talent. Watch out, USC, Utah, and Washington.

Cade Klubnik took over for DJ Uiagalelei in 2022 and it felt like the offense got a jolt of life right away. He did have his struggles, but he proved that he could probably do a better job leading the offense and he has a lot of people believing in Clemson again. Talent will never be an issue with Clemson but having the right guy under center is critical. I believe the Tigers have that.

This is the final year of Washington in the Pac-12 after the program joined Oregon, USC, and UCLA as the teams on the move to the Big Ten in 2024. And this is a crucial season for the Huskies because it may be their best chance to make the playoff and compete for titles for years.

Michael Penix Jr. decided to come back for one final season and he’s going to be one of the top quarterbacks in the country yet again. He’ll have his top receivers back as well so this offense is going to explode for another big year, especially if the Huskies can find the right running back.

Kalen DeBoer has done a great job in a short period of time and it just feels like the program may have punched above their weight last year and may take a minor step back this season.

I do, however, think that the Huskies have top-10 potential and the media is very bullish on them. I see them sneaking into the top 10 to start the year.

I’m really big on Notre Dame this season and I think Marcus Freeman is going to be one of the best coaches in college football before too long. Some were worried that the drop-off from Brian Kelly to Freeman would be massive, but he’s arguably recruiting at an even higher level.

Recruiting is no longer just limited to high school recruits either. Freeman landed arguably the best quarterback in the transfer portal in Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman. The Demon Deacons have to be heartbroken he’s gone after a massive career there but he’ll finally be playing for a legit national title contender.

The quarterback upgrade is a big reason why everyone is so high on the Irish but also because there are some nice upgrades on both sides of the ball and I think the receiving corps will be much better this year.

Notre Dame is going to be really good and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Irish in the playoff conversation in November.

One of the best offensive trios in the country returns this season as Jordan Travis leads the offense with Trey Benson in the backfield and Johnny Wilson at receiver. That’s already a really tough-to-stop trio of players and then you add Keon Coleman to that mix? Defenses are going to be distraught week after week trying to prepare for this attack.

Coleman and Wilson are going to make up arguably the best one-two receiver punches in the country and Benson will likely rush for well over 1,000 yards again while Travis will be a legit Heisman candidate.

Defensively, the Seminoles bring back some key players and even some newcomers who should have major impacts. I don’t doubt that this defense is going to take a step forward in 2023.

Florida State is probably going to be the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC this season over Clemson for the first time since Jimbo Fisher was in charge.

An argument could be made that Penn State has one of the best defenses in all of college football. Actually, that’s a fairly widespread opinion. You could actually make a legit argument that Penn State has the best defense in the country.

With arguably the best defensive backfield and defensive line in the country, Penn State is going to cause some serious problems this season. Oh, and the linebackers are elite, too.

Since there are no real question marks on Manny Diaz’s defense, what about the offense? Well, that might be improving, too.

While Sean Clifford is gone, Drew Allar might be the best first-year starting quarterback in the country this season. He has elite potential and there’s a reason he was a five-star in the 2022 class. He’ll have arguably the best backfield in the Big Ten behind him (my pick is Michigan for the best backfield, but it’s close).

I think this will be a very classic Penn State team that could legitimately win the conference and finally make the playoff.

I think USC will be ranked just outside the top five in the first AP Top 25 preseason poll but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them just a few points behind that range.

This is USC’s final season in the Pac-12 after agreeing to join the Big Ten for 2024 and beyond. The Trojans will be the favorite to win the loaded conference in its last year as we know it and I think that’s because of reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams.

USC returns plenty but it also adds Brenden Rice, Dorian Singer, and MarShawn Lloyd to the offense which is going to more than make up for the departures of Jordan Addison and Travis Dye. This offense is going to be explosive yet again.

As for the defense, this is a huge year for Alex Grinch to prove himself after a rocky start to his tenure as the program’s defensive coordinator. He does have a history of success, but needs to prove it this season. He’ll have plenty of talent to work with.

The ceiling of this team is very high.

For the first time that I can remember, Alabama is not a lock to be a top-three team in the country to start the season. Nick Saban and the Tide actually have to prove themselves after a measly 11-2 season. Yes, some programs are considered “down” after going 11-2.

The Tide are going to have to break in a new quarterback after losing Bryce Young to the NFL which is why many are hesitant to be too high on this team. Alabama is loaded at pretty much every position, but the quarterback performances during the spring scared people away.

In fact, neither Tyler Simpson or Jalen Milroe stood out in the spring which led Saban to go out and land Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner. No starter has been named yet.

Alabama’s defense should be very good yet again and the skill positions on offense are dangerous, but that pesky quarterback is a question mark.

Saban did leave a recent press conference with a massive smile on his face so that was worrisome for the rest of college football.

Ryan Day is facing a huge season as Ohio State head coach because he hasn’t won the Big Ten since 2020 and hasn’t beaten rival Michigan since 2019 (yes, the 2020 game was canceled on Michigan’s part due to COVID-19). If he fails to do both this year, there may have to be a legit discussion about his future.

But, man, does he ever have the team to potentially do both this year.

Although CJ Stroud is gone, the Buckeyes do have a couple of talented options to replace him along with the best receiver in the country and a top-three backfield in the conference.

Jim Knowles and Ohio State will have one of the best defenses in the country as well. JT Tuimoloau leads that defensive line and the secondary and linebacking corps could be elite this year once again. It just needs to be able to stop Michigan in the final week of the season.

Ohio State is an early favorite to make the playoff again.

While I haven’t checked out a ton of other preseason AP Top 25 projections, I’d assume that many have LSU in the top five. I, however, think the Tigers are one of the top 2-3 teams in the country heading into the season which makes the season opener against Florida State that much more intriguing.

In my post-spring Top 25 projections, I had LSU ranked No. 2. I actually believed that the Tigers were the second-best team in the nation behind the defending national champions, but I’m tempering my expectations by moving LSU down one spot.

The Tigers bring back Jayden Daniels who I believe will be one of the nation’s top quarterbacks and he’ll be surrounded by elite weapons, including Notre Dame running back transfer Logan Diggs.

Brian Kelly has assembled an impressive roster and his defense will be very solid this season.

I’ll admit, I was wrong about Kelly being a horrible fit in Baton Rouge as it didn’t take him long to adjust. He now has a legit national title contender on his hands.

For years, people were saying that Jim Harbaugh just couldn’t take Michigan to that next level and the ceiling was Big Ten East runner-up. However, a switch has flipped since the COVID-19 season as the Wolverines have won two straight Big Ten titles and made back-to-back playoff appearances.

JJ McCarthy emerged as the new starting quarterback last season after beating out Cade McNamara and forcing him into a transfer to Iowa. Fans have high hopes for their gunslinger and the term ‘Heisman’ has been thrown around a bit.

But the top Heisman threat on the team, at least in my opinion, has to be Blake Corum. He was in the hunt last year before suffering an injury and giving way to electric backup Donovan Edwards. They make up the best backfield in the country and both will be playing on Sundays soon.

Once again, the defense will be elite and the only real question mark on this roster is the receiver position.

Michigan will be a playoff threat yet again.

I don’t think there’s a single question about the No. 1 team in the country, especially since Georgia is 29-1 over the past two seasons and the Bulldogs have won back-to-back national titles.

Sure, there’s a question mark at the quarterback position with Stetson Bennett moving on, but Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff should be good enough to get the job done. There’s no reason these guys can’t carry the load seeing as a former walk-on was able to win two straight titles at quarterback for the Bulldogs.

Everything else on this roster is pretty loaded. Even those two quarterbacks are talented, they’re just unproven compared to Bennett last year.

Georgia will have a strong run game, a deep receiving corps, the best tight end in the country in Brock Bowers, and probably a top-five defense in college football yet again. This team is stacked at every position and until someone can prove otherwise, the Bulldogs will be No. 1.

This is a lock on the AP Top 25 when it comes out on Aug. 15.