It started with Oklahoma and Texas, then it got worse with USC and UCLA. After that, everything fell apart. Today, the idea of five premier conferences sits as nothing more than a concept stuck in the pages of college football history.
With a total of 10 teams (so far) announcing relocation in the Power Five alone, it is safe to say that this ongoing realignment period will leave its mark on the sport we all hold dear, and that is a problematic realization to come to for a multitude of reasons.
Said reasons include the competitive gap between the conferences growing larger and larger, each one’s geographical relevance losing significant ground (there are many effects to consider from that on its own), and, of course, the teams that are at severe risk of getting left in the dust.
Currently, there are four Pac-12 universities that are still without new homes — California, Oregon State, Stanford, and Washington State. Now that both the Big Ten and Big 12 appear to have ceased their pillaging of the Western safe haven, the fates of those squads are anything but certain from an affiliation standpoint after this season.
With that said, the question has to be asked: What options do the unclaimed schools have?
As even the most casual fans would assume, options are quite limited
Well, there is a very short list of answers to choose from, and that is especially so when considering that the chances of absorption from either of the other two “Power 4” leagues will be disregarded from here on out.
I am making that call due to a couple of factors. One is that the ACC is already being highlighted as a possible landing spot for California and Stanford, so covering that subject would single-handedly defeat the purpose of this article’s premise. The other is that SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has already said that it’s done with expansion as well.
With all of that having been addressed, let’s take a look at the first of our whopping two options — becoming FBS Independents.
This would be a path that I imagine most if not all of the teams would be willing to trek only for a little while (if at all); they would agree to endure a rather negligible stint away from conference play on the dream of a Power 4 league growing desperate enough to reach out to them relatively soon afterward.
Something that gives this vision life for at least one of the schools in question is the discussion surrounding Stanford’s supposed humoring of the idea, but just because the Cardinal may be interested doesn’t mean any of the others are, nor does it mean that the idea would be executed in the best interest of college football overall. Also, I feel that if Stanford were to be serious about going solo, it probably wouldn’t already be in talks with the ACC (a conference on the other side of America). So let’s go ahead and scratch off the Independent route.
That leaves the only other option, one so controversial at face value, yet holds true practicality at its roots. In fact, it just might have the potential to produce one of the best outcomes achievable—heading down to the Group of Five, particularly the Mountain West.
What makes the MWC such an appealing choice?
The Mountain West is a candidate that has been pitched before; Bleacher Report’s Scott Polacek described it as the cleanest and most geographically sensible of the Pacific squads’ alternatives (a take that I find difficult to deny).
However, I think that there are benefits to this concept that go beyond just regional advantages. When looking at the Mountain West as a whole, the inclusion of the four Pac-12 schools could result in the closest that college football will get to a happy ending anytime soon.
Simply put, if the MWC were to land them, it could be in a position to essentially become the West Coast’s new Power Five league — and not just in football (we will be observing things through a college football lens, though). This is something that Polacek appeared to hint at, and this is how I could see it happening.
Of the conference’s 12 programs, seven made bowls last season; of those seven, three hit 10 wins (Air Force, Boise State, and Fresno State). While that depth isn’t top-notch by any stretch of the imagination, it’s definitely worthy of building something off of. That’s the case without even mentioning the other success some of the league’s members have seen in recent memory.
Along with the Falcons, Broncos, and Bulldogs, five other Mountain West programs hit eight wins or more in at least one of the last five years (one of those programs is San Diego State’s, which hasn’t suffered a single losing season since 2009). And, while they haven’t managed to break the eight-win threshold in over a decade, the San Jose State Spartans managed to go 7-1 in 2020. Doesn’t sound like too shabby of a football conference to me.
But despite the MWC’s standard being fine and dandy, there are still several questions engulfing today’s proposed move. Luckily, each of them fails to hold much weight. Don’t believe me? Let’s rule them out one by one.
Question No. 1: While the Mountain West should realistically like the idea of Pac-12 influence, do we know that it’s even trying to pursue expansion opportunities?
On Aug. 9, the MWC released a statement discussing its own expansion. Here is just an excerpt of what it said: “With the recent changes in membership composition in several conferences, the Mountain West is exploring all opportunities to strengthen the league, including through the addition of new member schools.” In other words: Yes.
Question No. 2: Why would the four Pac-12 teams decide to move down if it were remotely avoidable (especially with their main rivals joining such elite company)?
First off, that implies that the teams would instead be Independent and/or holding out for acceptance from larger conferences that clearly don’t want them (other than the ACC, who may take half of them, but even that leaves the need for answers in regards to the other half).
Secondly, this mindset comes from the perspective that views the teams as moving down and not the Mountain West as moving up. If the MWC could continue to look good with its current members while introducing four from the Power Five, I can promise that it wouldn’t be seen as just some run-of-the-mill Group of Five league from that point onward.
Question No. 3: Why would the Pac teams go to a conference that they don’t have any emotional connection to?
Well, if you wish to blame someone for separating the squads from their rivals, the Big Ten would have to be your only real target; it’s the one that consciously decided to tear the states of California, Oregon, and Washington in half. With that said, the emotional ties have already been undone to at least some degree. Oh, and another thing: Who said the teams don’t have a connection to the Mountain West?
- Cal’s all-time record against MWC teams: 70-21-1
- Oregon State’s all-time record against MWC teams: 42-30
- Stanford’s all-time record against MWC teams: 77-20-3
- Washington State’s all-time record against MWC teams: 38-18-1
Question No. 4: Even if the Mountain West’s image grows in response to the acquisitions, wouldn’t there be undesirable gaps in important categories, including payment, talent, etc.?
Yes, yes there would. But, to those who find themselves getting hung up on that sort of stuff, I feel obligated to remind you all that those exact gaps are in no way new to college football — and they won’t be going away regardless of what happens out West. If you’re someone who hasn’t cared about them for the years that they’ve already been around, you have no business drawing a line in the sand now.
In short, if the unclaimed Pac-12 teams were to be taken by the MWC, it would give them a home that they’d not only know wants them, but also one that they’d be able to see prosper as a result. At the same time, the college football landscape we once knew will be left with as little damage done to it as possible.
It’s not a perfect situation, but with all that’s unfolded lately, it’s about as close as we can get to such.