Penn State football heads into 2023 with high expectations. Can they break through the barriers that have prevented them from reaching elite status in recent years?
Penn State football fans are no doubt excited for the 2023 season. Last year ended on a high note with a Rose Bowl victory over the PAC-12 champion Utah Utes and an overall record of 11-2.
It feels as though this program is knocking on the door of elite status and right there behind Michigan and Ohio State. They have consistently fallen short against these two teams in recent years despite some very close games.
This is the first time in probably 5 years that Penn State football looks to be on a level playing field with the Buckeyes and Wolverines, at least from a personnel standpoint. Time will tell of course.
After all, there is no reason that Penn State should not be at that level consistently when you look at the size of the program, NIL capability, recent recruiting, etc.
This season could certainly be the year that everything has been building toward for the Nittany Lions.
In this preview, we will take a look at the roster as a whole, provide some insight into both the offense and defense as separate units, and look at the schedule with an overall record prediction.
Offense
Certain aspects of the Penn State football offense are solid and we have no questions about how effective they will be. I am talking mainly about the running game.
The majority of the offensive line will be back including standout Olu Fashanu, who was injured towards the end of last season. This line is the best Penn State has had in probably 20 years.
Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen both had fantastic freshman seasons and complement each other nicely as the Penn State backfield. Singleton is explosive beyond belief and Allen is a bruiser that can wear the defense down. This running game will be solid, we know that much.
Quarterback Drew Allar is the X-Factor here. He is the likely starter for this offense this season replacing long-time starter Sean Clifford. Allar was highly touted coming out of high school and the expectations for him are through the roof.
It is worth noting that Penn State football has had a couple of QBs like this come through their program that did not live up to the hype, so I am justified in saying I need to see it to believe it. He did play in several games last year and made some nice throws, so there is reason to believe that he can be great, although the sample size is still pretty small.
The reason Allar is the X-Factor is because if he is what people hope he is, Penn State could have one of the strongest offenses in the country, in addition to a dominant defense, which we’ll get to in a minute. Allar’s play could be the difference between an unbeaten season and Big 10 title and a 9-3 season.
Defense
The Penn State football defense returns some serious playmakers and there is no reason to believe they won’t be elite. Among these are Calen King (DB), Johnny Dixon (DB), Abdul Carter (LB), Chop Robinson (DE), and Dani Dennis-Sutton (DE) to name a few.
This is a young defense that started last year as “good” and ended up “great”. This defense is the reason Penn State will start 2023 in the top 10.
They will keep the Nittany Lions in games and help facilitate a good learning environment for new QB Drew Allar, especially early in the season.
Defensive Coordinator Manny Diaz is returning for his second season with Penn State and was fantastic last season. He deserves a lot of credit for what this unit has turned into.
Penn State fans should cherish this season with Diaz calling the defense as many believe he will be up for a head coaching job if the Penn State defense has another strong showing in 2023.
Penn State football schedule and predictions
The schedule is pretty straightforward for Penn State as the Big Ten is a bit top-heavy. Michigan and Ohio State will be by far the biggest tests with one or two other games that could be scary if they don’t show up or try and sleepwalk through. I am mainly talking about the matchup early in the season with Illinois in Champagne. Let’s take a look game by game with my overall prediction for 2023.
9/2/23- West Virginia at Penn State- WIN. Not a ton of concern other than season openers can be scary. Maybe a little closer than anticipated.
9/9/23- Delaware at Penn State- WIN. Simply too big of a talent gap, Penn State will cruise here.
9/16/23- Penn State at Illinois- WIN. Close game against perhaps the best team in the conference not named Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State.
9/23/23- Iowa at Penn State- WIN. Penn State has historically struggled against Iowa, particularly when hopes are high, but it’s not happening in the whiteout game.
9/30/23- Penn State at Northwestern- WIN. Northwestern is in shambles at the moment and Penn State should be just fine here.
10/14/23- Umass at Penn State– WIN. UMass does not have enough to hang in this game, a good opportunity for Penn State to build some momentum going into the back half of the season.
10/21/23- Penn State at Ohio State- LOSS. While I think this will be a competitive game, the Horseshoe is a tough place to go win. It will come down to a big play or two down the stretch.
10/28/23- Indiana at Penn State- WIN. Penn State will need to show up for this one but should come out victorious if they play well.
11/4/23- Penn State at Maryland- WIN. There are certain teams that have given Penn State some problems in recent years, Maryland is NOT one of them. Penn State seems to own Maryland for one reason or another.
11/11/23- Michigan at Penn State- WIN. This will be another battle and Penn State is fortunate to have this one at home. They will make enough plays to get it done and the environment will be wild.
11/18/23- Rutgers at Penn State- WIN. Not a lot to say here. Rutgers is one of those teams that should not present a challenge and will allow Penn State to work on some things.
11/24/23- Penn State at Michigan State – WIN. In the final game of the season, a potential playoff berth on the line, give me Penn State.
Final Record: (11-1, 8-1)
I believe that the floor for Penn State is 9-3, with a ceiling of 12-0. Nothing in-between would surprise me. They have the pieces to compete with anyone and it will come down to big plays in big moments. The margin between those top teams in the Big Ten appears to be so thin, and it will be exciting to see if the Nittany Lions can get back to the same level as Michigan and Ohio State and win their first conference title since 2016.