It’s the third Saturday in September, and that means it’s time for Florida and Tennessee football to renew their annual rivalry. The Swamp will play host for this year’s primetime event on ESPN. The game is always an intense and enthralling spectacle, and this edition won’t be any different.
With that said, I expect Tennessee to get the better of the beleaguered Gators.
Here are three reasons the Vols will win.
3. Joe Milton’s redemption song
Quarterback Joe Milton went from four-star recruit, according to 247Sports Composite, out of Florida in 2018 to a Jim Harbaugh showman — more like horror showman — during his three-year spell in Ann Arbor. However, thanks in part to the transfer portal, in 2021 Joe was given an immediate second chance in his career playing for Tennessee in Knoxville.
Unfortunately for Milton though, he once again failed his superiors and supporters, thus ultimately getting benched.
By the time 2022 came around, the pine became a permanent fixture for Milton. He was the decided second-stringer for the Vols behind Heisman-hyped Hendon Hooker. But it wasn’t all bad for Joe, as he was actually able to learn and develop his quarterbacking craft without bearing the weight of being the savior for the squad.
As such, when Milton did play, he threw for 10 touchdowns against zero interceptions, and Tennessee as a whole went on to have the school’s most successful season in over 20 years with an 11-2 recording, matching the 2001 season.
Fast forward to present day, and it looks like the fifth-year senior is finally ready to take center stage. All those trials and tribulations that Joe endured, spanning from Big Ten country to SEC territory, have shaped and molded Milton into a player who is now as mentally tough as he is physically strong and imposing (6-foot-5, 235 pounds).
Therefore, I believe that Milton will be a key reason why Tennessee will beat rival Florida on Saturday night. He’s ready to redeem himself and his past collegiate failures. Milton will bring the toughness on the ground and the power and precision through the air for Josh Heupel’s Rocky Top roster en route to the Vols’ first victory in Gainesville in 20 years.
2. Florida is in a state of emergency
Long gone are the glory days of Urban Myer’s Tim Tebow-led championship teams. It’s been 15 years since the two legends teamed up to claim the 2008 National Championship and/or SEC Title Double, and there’s no end in sight as to when the Gators will break this title-less drought.
Heck, as of today, the reptiles can’t even be considered contenders to win the SEC East as both the current back-to-back defending national champ and Outdoor Cocktail Party rival Georgia and revived rival Tennessee are viewed as cuts above the Gators within the division.
For many, this realization of underachievement by a program enriched in tradition and immersed amongst the fertile landscape of elite footballing prospects is downright infuriating. Couple those factors with knowing that the school thought it plucked one of the brightest young minds in the sport from Louisiana in Billy Napier, and Gator Nation is left once again scratching its head, wondering what it needs to do to compete at the highest level again.
In Napier’s first season at the helm, the Gators crawled their way to bowl eligibility with a 6-6 regular season record, only to get dissected 30-3 by the Oregon State Beavers in the Las Vegas Bowl. To make matters worse, this mediocre campaign was led by a would soon to be top-five NFL draft pick in Anthony Richardson. Just imagine how much worse the 2022 season could have gone if Florida had not had the workout warrior under center or out of the shotgun.
Well, we don’t have to imagine that scenario any longer, because the nation has already gotten a glimpse of life after AR-15 in Florida’s 2023 season opener at Utah, and it doesn’t look pretty.
The team looked unprepared, turnover-prone, penalty-ridden, and weak at the point of attack. Needless to say, this is a recipe for future losses, like this weekend against Tennessee.
1. Tennessee football defense will stuff the Gators’ ground game
As aforementioned, Florida was weak in the trenches against No. 12 Utah two weeks ago.
To paint a clearer picture as to just how feeble the Gators were along the offensive line, particularly in reference to the running game, here’s a stat for you: Florida rushed the ball for 13 yards against the Utes. Let me say that again, 13 rushing yards in total for the Gators — over four whole quarters. Yikes. Florida had 20 carries across five different rushers for an average of 0.65 yards per carry. In turn, this led Billy Napier’s offense to score a whopping 11 points.
Let’s face it, this production — or lack thereof — is simply not going to get the job done even against the meekest Power Five opponent, let alone the 11th-ranked Volunteers.
The Vols possess an experienced defensive line featuring a set of senior tackles, Omari Thomas and Elijah Simmons, who average 6-foot-3 and 330 pounds. In addition, Tyre West and Tyler Baron will bring a combination of size, strength, and speed to each end of the defensive line.
Therefore, I’m fully expecting the Tennessee defense to stuff the Gators’ ground game forcing Florida to rely on their highly touted transfer quarterback, the turnover susceptible talented choke artist, Graham Mertz.