As we enter the penultimate weekend of games prior to the release of this season’s first College Football Playoff Poll, storylines aplenty have taken shape.
For example, Alabama has already suffered two losses, and as a result, its playoff aspirations are on life support. In addition, it’s still October and we’re on to our fourth number one ranked team in the country — Georgia, Alabama, Texas and now Oregon have all claimed the top spot in the AP Poll at some point this year.
Also, the SEC doesn’t have a single remaining unbeaten team as the mega conference has begun cannibalizing itself — leaving proud programs such as Oklahoma, Auburn, and Florida looking like also-rans.
And then there’s Notre Dame and its’ rival military academies in Navy and Army. As has been well documented, the Irish are already in playoff mode courtesy of the NIU loss in Week 2 — despite Notre Dame being ranked #8 by ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Meanwhile, West Point (Notre Dame plays the Black Nights on Nov. 23) and the Naval Academy are 7-0 and 6-0 respectively, and both are ranked in the Top 25. To put into perspective just how rare this feat is for the service schools, 1945 was the last time that Army and Navy began a season 6-0.
This Saturday, one of the five ranked versus ranked matchups will in fact be Notre Dame against Navy. These two institutions have a well documented history — one that lends itself to having a rivalry of respect and admiration rather than disdain and hatred.
This weekend’s fixture from the Meadowlands will be the 97th meeting between the Irish and Midshipmen — Notre Dame leads the head-to-head battle 80-13-1.
So without further ado, here’s three bold predictions for this game between storied foes, Notre Dame and Navy.
Jeremiyah Love to Rush for 100 Yards
Scampering for scores hasn’t been an issue for Jeremiyah Love this season as he’s rushed for a touchdown in each of Notre Dame’s seven games this season. With that said, accumulating significant yardage on the ground has been rather elusive. Love has only reached the century mark once thus far this year — Love rushed for 109 yards against the Boilermakers in Week 3.
Love, a former consensus Top 100 recruit, is a bonafide future NFL Draft talent. Standing at 6’ / 210 lbs, Love’s frame is ideal for the next level. Combine his physique with blazing speed — Love was a 100M Class 5A MSHS State Champion in 2021 whilst at Christian Brothers College — and Jeremiah has the capability to be a special talent that can not only earn the tough yardage when asked, but also break away from opponents when required.
So, why has Love struggled to gain significant yardage game in and game out? Whelp, that’s mainly been down to workload. Coach Marcus Freeman has a bevy of talented running backs at his disposal, and despite Love being the unquestioned starter, the amount of carries in which he gets per game is smaller than the norm — Love is averaging just 11 carries per contest compared to ND’s starting tailback from a year ago, Audric Estime, who accrued 17.5 rushes per game.
Despite the fewer attempts, I’m predicting that the St. Louis, Missouri native — who is averaging an impressive 6.0 yards per carry for the season— will in fact reach triple digits on the ground against the Middies. Love’s lethal athleticism will be too much for Navy’s meek ground defense — the Midshipman rank 94th in rushing yards allowed per game, according to TeamRankings.
Taking the Over on 52.5 Total Points
Trying to predict this fixture from a betting standpoint, whether it’d be the over/under or the spread, seems rather tricky — as the numbers below would indicate.
Seven of the past 10 occasions between Notre Dame and Navy have seen scoring totals exceed the 52.5 points that’s being laid out by the casino. However, two of the past three contests have actually gone under, which coincides with the arrival of Marcus Freeman — Freeman arrived in South Bend as the defensive coordinator for the Irish in 2021, and then later became head coach of the team ahead of the 2022 Fiesta Bowl.
With that said, I’m going to take the over in this matchup, thanks in large part to Navy’s offensive renaissance. Whilst still sticking to its run option DNA, the Midshipmen have become much more vertical in the passing game this year. As such, the Middies, led by quarterback Blake Horvath, have thrown for 11 touchdowns already this term, surpassing 2023’s full-season total.
Courtesy of this downfield attack, which loosens up the opposing defenses, Navy’s ground game has benefited as well — Navy is accruing 80.2 yards more on the ground this year when compared to 2023. In total, the Middies are racking up 277.8 yards rushing per game, which ranks 3rd nationally, according to TeamRankings.
Therefore, I suspect that Notre Dame, which actually boasts the nation’s 3rd ranked scoring defense, per TeamRankings, will have its challenges defending this modern version of the Midshipmen. In turn, the Irish will give up more points than they’re accustomed to, which will aid in the scoring total going over BetMGM’s 52.5 mark.
Navy to Cover the +12.5 Spread, but the Irish get the Win
Over the past 10 meetings, this fixture has been decided by 10 points or less five times. With that said, the other five occasions have all been decided by 17 points or more. Thus, it’s a virtual coin flip to decide whether Saturday’s game will be tightly contested or a runaway Irish win.
Notre Dame this year has done rather well against the spread, accumulating a 5-2 record — the two losses ATS have come against MAC schools: Northern Illinois and Miami (OH).
The Irish will once again be facing a Group of 5 opponent in Navy, thus perhaps another loss against the spread is in the cards. According to BetMGM, the spread sits at +12.5 for the Middies, and as aforementioned, Navy is a ranked unbeaten squad. Therefore, we shouldn’t expect the men from Annapolis to be pushovers despite going up against a decidedly better squad, on paper, in Notre Dame.
In turn, I predict that The Naval Academy will cover the spread. The Midshipmen will cause problems for the Irish early via its modernized RPO offense. However, Notre Dame will rally and earn its third Top 25 win of the season.
Watch: No. 12 Notre Dame vs No. 24 Navy | 12:00 PM ET | ABC