12 coaches under the most pressure to make the 12-team playoff in 2024

It’s everyone’s goal to reach the College Football Playoffs. For some, that’s a pretty lofty aspiration. For others, it’s simply expected.

With the conference reshuffling, endless head coaching changes, and fanatical transfer portal that has followed the 2023 season, there are 12 coaches under the most pressure to take their teams to the playoffs.

The good news is that there will be a spot for each of them in the newly expanded 12-team playoff bracket. Now, it’s just up to the coaches and players to work their way into a contending spot.

Here are the 12 coaches who I believe are under the most pressure to make the 2024 College Football Playoffs:

12. Eliah Drinkwitz

Leading the Tigers to a shocking 11-2 finish in the 2023 season, Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has set the standard high for himself. 

The SEC has been and will continue to be a dominant force in the FBS landscape. Boosters and fans of the successful teams, Missouri now included, will only want more and more from their programs. 

Last season, the Tigers were able to take down Kansas State, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, and Ohio State.

Not a bad performance for a fourth-year coach.

Looking ahead to 2024, there will be massive amounts of pressure on Drinkwitz to not only match his previous season's record but to do better. If Drinkwitz and his team can improve their regular season record to 11-1, they will certainly be contenders for a spot in the CFPs.

If they fall short of contention, Drinkwitz will need to hope Tiger fans and the athletic department are more lenient than other SEC schools.

11. Lane Kiffin

In a similar boat to Drinkwitz, Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin needs to prove that his success in 2023 wasn’t just a fluke.

Also finishing 11-2, the Rebels only lost to Alabama and Georgia during the regular season.

The team’s biggest wins came against the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl as well as Tulane, LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas during regular season play.

Next season will also be Kiffin’s fifth year leading the program and he has continuously fallen just short of success until this past year.

If he isn’t able to push his team into a top-12 spot by the end of the regular season, Kiffin better hope that his resume looks appealing to other programs across the country.

10. Mike Norvell

Florida State getting left out of the final four-team playoffs was no fault of head coach Mike Norvell. He did what he could with a depleted offense and led his team to an undefeated regular season as well as a conference title.

However, being in the discussion for Nick Saban’s previous post at Alabama and instead signing an extension with the Seminoles, Norvell needs to prove he made the right choice.

While the ACC is expanding, FSU won’t have the easiest path to playoffs. The team will face SMU, Miami, Duke, and Notre Dame on the road. They also have to host the Clemson Tigers who are never an easy opponent.

Norvell needs to show that the CFP Selection Committee made a mistake last season when they voted his team out of the playoffs. He can only do this by marching the Seminoles back to a top-12 spot and in contention for the 2024 playoffs.

9. Steve Sarkisian

In 2023, Texas was back… almost. Head coach Steve Sarkisian led the Horns to a third-place regular-season finish and a ticket to the CFP Semifinals. 

But, his Longhorns were no match for the Washington Huskies. Michael Penix Jr. and (now-former) head coach Kalen DeBoer held the Horns to just 31 points and knocked the team out of the playoffs.

After losing by six to UW, Sarkisian was also in the mix for who would take Saban’s place. However, Texas and Sark reached an agreement on a contract extension and he will be staying in Austin until 2030… for now.

Sarkisian is the only head coach who was in the 2023-24 CFPs that stayed at his current position. DeBoer flew to Alabama, Jim Harbaugh left Michigan for the LA Chargers, and Nick Saban retired.

Falling just short of reaching the national title game left Texas fans with an uneasy feeling in their hearts and minds… and Horns fans don’t do well with a coach who can’t win them a title.

If Sarkisian doesn’t at least get Texas back to the CFPs, he will be thanking his lucky stars that he received that extension before the 2024 season.

8. Dan Lanning

Going into his third season as the Oregon head coach, Dan Lanning has high expectations for himself and his players. He didn’t get an extension sent his way while deep in the Saban replacement talks.

Don’t get me wrong, Lanning signed a six-year contract for $45 million in July of last year, so he’s sitting pretty with the Ducks.

But, speaking highly of his team, his staff, and the entire Oregon Athletic Department, Lanning has added to the already enormous level of pressure that’s looming over his head.

Arguably falling one win short of making the playoffs in 2023 and dropping a few crucial games in 2022, Lanning and his team need to prove their worth.

If the Ducks are to remain a national powerhouse, and eventually become a perennial program, Lanning has to get the Ducks back to the playoffs for the first time since Heisman-winning Marcus Mariota did it in 2015.

7. Lincoln Riley

Going into his third year with the USC Trojans, head coach Lincoln Riley will be without his Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams.

Coaching behind Williams at USC and fellow Heisman winner Kyler Murray at Oklahoma, Riley has produced a fairly impressive record of 74-18 overall.

However, without a Heisman winner on the field, can Riley maintain his previous success?

Even with Williams at quarterback in 2023, the Trojans finished at 8-5 with big losses to Notre Dame, Utah, Washington, Oregon, and (shockingly) UCLA.

However, Riley and backup quarterback Miller Moss were able to turn it around in the team’s bowl game as the Trojans defeated Lousiville.

Riley better hope Moss can continue to be his next man up as the Trojans enter the highly competitive Big Ten Conference.

6. Kirby Smart

The Bulldogs were just one win short of their chance at becoming a three-peat national title team.

Losing to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC championship knocked head coach Kirby Smart and the Georgia team out of contention for the playoffs.

While the 2023 season wasn’t anywhere near a failure for the Bulldogs, Smart needs to lead his team back to a playoff spot – especially with 12 spots available.

If the Bulldogs fail to reach a ranking of No. 12 or higher, Smart won’t be out of a job but boosters and fans may start scrutinizing his coaching a little more closely.

The SEC is the conference to beat, and for a couple of years, Georgia was the team to beat. Smart has to play it, well, smart and get his team back to the top of the FBS standings and into contention for a national championship once again.

5. Brian Kelly

Since taking control of the LSU Tigers in 2022, Brian Kelly and his staff have fallen just short of sitting atop the SEC and marching his team to the playoffs.

Finishing at 10-4 in the 2022 and 10-3 in the 2023 regular seasons, the Tigers were repeatedly only a game or two away from being in the CFP conversation.

LSU is a good, if not great, football program historically, and Kelly leaving Notre Dame for Baton Rouge needs to stand for something. Tiger fans will be in upheaval if they have to witness yet another season without a playoff-contending team.

Not only will Kelly need to lead his team to a top-25 finish in the regular season, he needs to bring his team up to a top-12 spot.

This would be the Tigers’ second-ever playoff appearance, their first coming in 2020 when they lost in the National Championship to Clemson.

4. James Franklin

Having James Franklin so high on this list may surprise some of you. However, with Penn State never appearing in the four-team playoffs, the Nittany Lions need to find a top-12 spot next season.

Taking over the Penn State head coaching position in 2014, Franklin has struggled to find consistency for his team. Playing against formidable opponents in the Big Ten such as Michigan and Ohio State regularly doesn’t help.

Even with the tough regular season matchups, Franklin has recruited well and has the star power a team needs to find a ticket to the CFPs.

Despite having roster members like Saquon Barkley, Trace McSorley, and Micah Parsons, Franklin and the Nittany Lions are continually bumped out of a playoff spot.

Hopefully, for Franklin’s sake, Penn State can be coached into a top-12 ranking at the end of the season and punch their ticket to the 2024 playoffs.

3. Dabo Swinney 

After a couple of wildly unsuccessful seasons for Clemson, it’s looking like Dabo Swinney’s mantra against NIL deals isn’t fairing so well for the Tigers.

With the second most appearances in CFP games, only trailing Alabama, Swinney set a precedent at Clemson and the team has fallen well short of that standard in recent years.

In 2023, the Tigers finished 6th in the ACC with a 9-4 overall record (4-4 in conference games).

Swinney and his team eked out a bowl win over the Kentucky Wildcats but failing to reach the CFPS since 2021 – when they lost to Ohio State in the semifinals – is a bad look for the previously dominant program.

Swinney must turn his team back around, putting them back at the top of the ACC (amongst Florida State) to keep his job past the 2024 season.

2. Kalen DeBoer

Even though he’ll be at a new program, Kalen DeBoer needs to show up as head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide. It is still 'Bama after all.

While the entirety of the Tide’s success this century came under the guise of Nick Saban, the now perennial program can’t fall short of a top-12 ranking at the end of the season.

And DeBoer isn’t a bad coach by any means. His record as a head coach is 104-12! That’s insane!

One of those losses was against the Michigan Wolverines in the National Championship game at the end of the 2023 season. He was able to transform the Washington football program into a top-four team when it had been struggling to find success for decades.

His overall record as a head coach and knowledge of the game should give him a leg up at Alabama. While he has lost a lot of star players, he was also able to bring some along with him from the Huskies.

If we see Alabama ranked outside of the top 12 (the Tide’s lowest end-of-season ranking since 2008), DeBoer’s tenure in Tuscaloosa might not be much longer than a year.

1. Ryan Day

Despite Ohio State winning the National Championship in 2014 and appearing in the CFPs seven total times, very few of them came under Ryan Day.

Since taking over the Buckeye’s program in 2018, OSU has only made it to the playoffs three times (2019, 2020, and 2022). The team has also lost to Michigan again and again and again.

Falling short of winning the Big Ten title as well as losing to their ultimate rival on repeated occasions has not looked good on Day’s resume thus far.

Only scoring 3 points and losing to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl to end the 2023 season also didn’t sit well with Buckeye fans.

He has had the star players and the Heisman candidates so a lack of skill can’t be the issue here. He now brought on long-time NFL coach Bill O’Brien to be his offensive coordinator, possibly waving the white flag that play calling isn’t Day’s forte.

With 12 spots available, if Day can’t take his team back to the playoffs – and probably a few rounds deep – he may need to look at job postings sooner than expected.

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