Out with the old and in with the new. For Big 12 football, that means losing Texas and Oklahoma and adding teams like Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado.
The conference looks much different than it did even a couple of years ago with the aforementioned Pac-12 teams joining along with Houston, Cininnati, BYU, and UCF. We've seen eight new teams join the conference over the past couple of years so it's a far cry from the "normal" Big 12.
For the first time in years, the Big 12 feels wide open in terms of title contenders, but there are some teams expecting to at least push for the top of the standings.
Which perceived "contenders" will disappoint in 2024?
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
First off, let me just say that we as college football fans have been robbed of Bedlam with Oklahoma making the move to the SEC and the rivalry not being renewed right away. We deserve more.
Anyways, back to the original point: I think Oklahoma State falls short this season.
Mike Gundy and the Cowboys had a surprisingly successful 2023 season and contended for the conference crown, but I just don't see Alan Bowman playing as well as he did to lead the offense again and a lot of pressure will be on Ollie Gordon's shoulders. He is the best running back in the country and he's going to put up numbers, but he can't do it all on his own.
There are some major question marks surrounding this team and it doesn't help that they have a tough schedule with Utah, Kansas State, and West Virginia in consecutive weeks before an Oct. 12 bye and then BYU and Baylor on the road right after that. Ending the season with TCU and Colorado on the road and Texas Tech at home won't be easy either.
I foresee a tough year for Gundy and Co.
2. Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State was another team that had a surprising bounce-back season in 2023, going 7-5 during the regular season and 6-3 in Big 12 play. The Cyclones exceeded expectations after a disappointing 2022 season that saw them go just 4-8.
Matt Campbell got some respect back around college football and improved his record to 53-48 overall with the Cyclones which is impressive when you consider how bad the program was when he took over.
But it feels like the program has been trending down for a couple of years (prior to 2023) and this past season felt like a mirage. The defense might be solid but the offense isn't going to wow anyone and Iowa State has just the 70th-ranked recruiting class coming in along with the 84-ranked transfer class. Not enough impactful incoming talent to improve this seven-win team.
Oh, and like Oklahoma State, the schedule is brutal. The Cyclones will face Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas, and Utah on the road. That's four likely losses already. And they'll host UCF, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. There could be a loss or two there, at least.
I've seen Iowa State projected to be a top 3-4 finisher in the Big 12 this year but I don't buy it.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers
Prior to the 2023 season, it looked like Neal Brown was going to be one of the next head coaches to be out of a job. He was just 22-25 in four years with the Mountaineers and for such a proud program, that wasn't going to cut it. He was coaching for his job in 2023 and he stepped up and knocked it out of the park with a 9-4 campaign.
The coach who hadn't won more than four games in Big 12 play or more than six in a season with the Mountaineers went 6-3 in conference action and 9-4 overall. It was a miracle season.
Brown ended up signing an extension and fans bought back in.
But I think, like Iowa State's 2023 season, it was a mirage.
Garrett Greene is a solid quarterback and West Virginia added some really solid transfers, but I don't see this team winning nine-plus games in back-to-back seasons nor finishing ranked. They're projected by many to be a top 25 team to start the 2024 season, but I don't see that lasting.
West Virginia opens with Penn State (loss) before going to Pitt two weeks later and then hosting a ranked Kansas team before a Sept. 28 bye. There's a legitimate chance this team could start the season with a 1-3 record. They then go to Oklahoma State (maybe 1-4 now) before hosting Iowa State and Kansas State -- sitting at 2-5? The Mountaineers have two likely wins left on the schedule (Baylor, Cincinnati) but Arizona on the road, UCF at home, and at Texas Tech will be tough.
Maybe Brown signed the extension too soon?