It could very well be argued that SMU football was one of college football’s least-appreciated teams last year, as they abused their conference competition so relentlessly that they removed all doubt surrounding their readiness to move on from the Group of Five level.
However, as has been proven on a plethora of prior occasions, even the strongest of Group of Five forces are not promised a smooth transition to what is now the Power Four, and unfortunately, the 2023 Ponies highlighted that trend like few others have before them.
In short, SMU faced three Power Four opponents last year (Oklahoma, TCU, and Boston College) en route to finishing its run with an 11-3 record — by that fact alone, you can probably see where I’m going with this. Even with the Horned Frogs and Eagles finishing their regular-season campaigns 5-7 and 6-6, respectively, the Mustangs lost to each of those three teams by multiple possessions.
Those losses expose an undeniable ceiling that throws everything we thought we knew about SMU’s potential as a to-be ACC program into question, and that being the case despite the conference’s current reputation as the weakest of the Power Four makes matters especially concerning.
So, it appears as if we have both a lot of good and a lot of bad encompassing the Mustangs as they enter this daunting new chapter of their history and with college football fans now beginning to hop on the preseason hype train, this seems like a wonderful opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
With that little write-up surely sending your excitement to its peak, here are my official game-by-game predictions for the 2024 SMU Mustangs.
Aug. 24: at Nevada (W)
The Wolf Pack are under new management after replacing Ken Wilson with Jeff Choate, and while that is quite an upgrade, SMU has been a bit too good (and Nevada too bad) for me to imagine this as anything other than a violent Mustangs win.
Aug. 31: Houston Christian (W)
These games are always the best parts of schedule pieces, as they take literally zero effort to predict, and especially with the objectively mediocre season HCU’s coming off of being its best to date, I’d like to think that everyone understands why.
Sept. 6: BYU (W)
I’m not going to sit here and pretend that the Cougars can’t give SMU any issues in this one, but with them being on a visible decline over the past few years that culminated in their 2023 selves finishing with a losing record (the program’s first since 2017), I see this one being just another game that the Mustangs are merely too big for.
If I had to elaborate on exactly how this encounter will go down, I would assume that BYU will find itself in a troublesome yet salvageable halftime deficit before stalling out and surrendering a three-possession win to SMU — think somewhere in the ballpark of 37-20.
Sept. 21: TCU (L)
All the pieces are there for the Mustangs to take this game: A hot 3-0 start, homefield advantage, their first bye week preceding it. But there’s one thing I just can’t get past, and that’s how badly TCU beat them last year.
As mentioned in the lead-in, the 2023 Horned Frogs couldn’t even go bowling, yet that didn’t stop them from doubling SMU up in an early 34-17 humiliation. When combining that with the fact that Sonny Dykes has been the winning head coach in this rivalry for four meetings straight (including the other dub he got over SMU’s Rhett Lashlee in 2022), how in the world am I supposed to make an argument for the Mustangs here?
And heck, their circumstances heading into the 2023 loss were rather comfortable too, with them having just evaporated Prairie View A&M 69-0, but that clearly didn’t do them much good, now did it?
So, to tie a bow on this whole thing, can I have any confidence in Lashlee’s Mustangs overcoming the visibly superior coaching of Sonny Dykes after failing to do so the last two seasons? No, I can’t, and until further notice, the question of whether I can give them the nod in this game will be met with the same answer.
Sept. 28: Florida State (L)
Okay, here is where things start to get a little ugly.
How well the Seminoles have reloaded this offseason has been a subject of constant debate, and many (myself included) feel that their odds of capturing the same magic they had last year are virtually nonexistent. One thing I’m sure we can all agree on, though, is that they’ll be in good-enough shape to beat SMU.
Because again, if we can’t rule out a convincing loss to TCU, how can we rule out one to the defending ACC Champs that are fresh off a 13-win rampage?
Oct. 5: at Louisville (L)
The only thing worse than facing the defending ACC champs at home after a loss is facing the defending conference runner-ups on the road after two losses.
Don’t get me wrong, the 2023 Cardinals were infamous for getting egg on their faces from teams that had no business manhandling them, but asking me to toss a momentum-less ACC newcomer into that conversation when it’s visiting the madhouse that is Louisville feels like too tall of an order nonetheless.
Oct. 19: at Stanford (W)
We all have a limit, a breaking point, a moment where we put our foot down and shout “enough”, and I think this trip to Stanford will be that moment for the Mustangs.
They’ll be rested some thanks to their second bye, along with having the crucial objective of avoiding a losing record, and the only thing standing in their way will be Stanford, a name that hasn’t had a season exceed four wins since 2018. Oh, and I’d also like to note that the Cardinal don’t have a bye of their own before this, but a road game against far-better rival Notre Dame.
Therefore, I have this week serving as a perfect opportunity for the ol’ Pony Express to get back on track, if you know what I mean.
Oct. 26: at Duke (W)
If we were still talking about a Duke team led by the coach-quarterback duo of Mike Elko and Riley Leonard, I’d have this battle swiftly hurling the Mustangs back down to reality, but with them both gone, I fear the Blue Devils are the only ones in store for that.
Some people don’t seem as convinced, but if you’re one of them, just stop and think for a moment: Duke football became competent the minute those two were in charge; with them now out of the picture, why would the formidability they established on either side of the ball linger?
I can concede that anything’s possible, but let’s be real—logic says they’ll suck, so me saying they’ll at least be bad enough to fall by the hands of a scrappy SMU is, if anything, generous.
Nov. 2: Pittsburgh (W)
I’ll keep this one short, straight, and to the point: Pittsburgh, a program that just suffered its worst season (3-9) in 25 years, has to visit a Mustangs squad that will not only have both an active win streak and a Homecoming atmosphere but will also be playing to clinch a bowl berth. Uh-huh, good luck keeping your smiles up this weekend, Pitt fans.
Nov. 16: Boston College (L)
This will probably be where today’s analysis takes its most controversial turn, as many will assume I’m saying this because of the swiftly referenced Fenway Bowl and nothing more.
Due to that thought, I’ll be mercilessly pelted with remarks about how the Mustangs didn’t have starting quarterback Preston Stone in that game, will be on one of their strongest highs of the year at this point, will be coming off of their third and final bye, and will be having Gerald J. Ford Stadium absolutely rocking… all with which I wholeheartedly agree. The only problem is that the Mustangs themselves will be thinking all of that as well.
Say what you will about the bowl, but I don’t think player departure was the only deciding factor in how it went down; I think another was SMU overlooking the Eagles, seeing their 6-6 record—that they had obtained in the lame ACC, no less—and getting a bit careless. It was this slip-up that left the Mustangs stunned by the physicality BC ultimately displayed, particularly through dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos, who proved himself to be the definition of unstoppable.
That brings us here, where SMU will once again be piping hot, with all the aforementioned positives setting up another potential underestimation. It’s obviously no guarantee though, as SMU may keep last year’s loss as the top reason to not overlook Boston College.
I don’t know for sure, but I can’t let that outweigh every single thing I see haunting this matchup. Therefore, we’ll just pencil this one in as a “trap game” that I have the Mustangs ever-so-slightly walking into.
Nov. 23: at Virginia (L)
You read that right, I have the Virginia Cavaliers, a team dealing with some of the greatest misfortune it’s had in the last 40 years, upsetting SMU in Charlottesville. My reasoning? Essentially the same I had behind the Boston College loss.
As the 2023 regular season progressed, the Cavs went from having a win allergy to being a bunch that even some of the ACC’s mightiest powers couldn’t count out. Said powers included NC State, North Carolina, Louisville and Duke. Of those four teams, only the Wolfpack and Cardinals survived Virginia, but they did so by a combined 10 points.
In conclusion, I wouldn’t let their latest record fool you: The Cavaliers, just like the Eagles, are no joke when slept on. So, having them share their turf with a recently humbled SMU sounds to me like another twist of the knife waiting to happen.
Nov. 30: California (W)
At this point, a lot of people will have given up on SMU having any season worth remembering, and I’m certain the Mustangs themselves will be aware of that, leaving them with quite the chip on their shoulder as they aim to prove the masses wrong and finish their regular season with a bang—and the diabolical, seemingly insurmountable behemoth in their way? California.
The Golden Bears went 6-7 in 2023, making them relatively accommodating foes for what will be SMU’s Senior Day. Not only that, but they’ll be strolling into the electric setting right after an emotionally draining Senior Day of their own against rival Stanford.
They’ll either beat the Cardinal and be in for a “hangover game”, or get upset and be going on the road with frighteningly low morale. No matter the outcome, the Mustangs are going to be far more focused on beating the Golden Bears than the Golden Bears are on beating the Mustangs, throwing one last dub into the SMU win column before the start of bowl prep.
With that final victory, I predict the SMU Mustangs will go 7-5 in their first year as an ACC team. That, of course, doesn’t have the same ring to it as “11-win conference champs”, but no one should be expecting them to replicate such a performance anyway. With that said, going bowling and having a chance to hit eight wins? Not bad for a batch of Power Four newbies.