Remember when the Indiana Hoosiers were good at football? Don’t overthink it, the answer is a lot more recent than you might think.
From 2015 to 2020, the Hoosiers (though not great by any stretch of the imagination) were formidable on a rather consistent basis, making four bowl appearances in six seasons—and while they were all losses, none of them were decided by more than six points.
The stretch of relevance saw its peak in their 2019 and 2020 runs, with the former seeing Indiana football hit eight wins for the first time since 1993, and the latter seeing them go 6-2, giving them their best single-season win percentage (.750) since 1967.
At that point, the Hoosiers appeared to be on the brink of a breakthrough, looking to become a thorn in the side of a loaded Big Ten East. The dream didn’t last long, however, as the collapse they’ve suffered in the years since has been as relentless as they come.
From 2021 to 2023, Indiana footabll averaged three wins a year, returning to the Big Ten basement with which it is all too familiar. When combining such a harsh tumble with the handful of dominant newcomers that the conference is welcoming in the summer, the Hoosiers have a future that couldn’t possibly look bleaker—or could it?
Indiana football could have a lot more going for it than some might assume
This upcoming season was set to be a big one for Indiana regardless of how much/little fans had to smile about, as it will serve as the beginning of the Curt Cignetti era. Before taking the IU job back in November, Cignetti was previously the esteemed head coach of the James Madison Dukes, leading them to a gorgeous 11-1 record in 2023, which was just their second year in the FBS (bowl loss to Air Force was under an interim).
That’s enough for me to deem Cignetti worthy of a Power 4 job, and if he can’t find a pulse in the Hoosiers, there likely aren’t many coaches on the market who can. Yet with that said, if he fails to do so this season, I feel there’s a strong chance he never will. I’m sure that sounds a tad melodramatic—especially coming from me, a longtime advocate for giving coaches more time to grow into bigger jobs—but please allow me to explain.
Simply put, Cignetti is inheriting an IU squad with a schedule that, at least when following a Big Ten cellar-dweller’s criteria, is unfamiliarly manageable. In other words, despite the probability of winning certain games not necessarily being favorable, the path to winning is nonetheless about as clear as it’ll ever be.
This is visible on several occasions throughout the Hoosiers’ season, but it is most so early thanks to out-of-conference opposition that's weak by even their standards.
Indiana’s out-of-conference slate is winnable to a fault
Of Indiana’s three non-conference dates, the toughest is its season-opener against FIU, a Conference USA team that went 4-8 last year—and it’s a home game. Yes, that’s the toughest. Beyond that are just two more home games against the Western Illinois Leathernecks (FCS team, went 0-11) and Charlotte (AAC team, went 3-9). If the Hoosiers don’t completely roll through that bunch, they ought as well disband the football program.
The second break Indiana football catches stems from those Big Ten newcomers I referenced just a moment ago, with one of them being its introduction to league play. On Sep. 14, in the middle of their unwatchable non-conference battles, the Hoosiers travel to Pasadena to take on UCLA in the Rose Bowl.
Especially with the Bruins having won eight or more games for three seasons straight, they look nothing like an easy win. There is one shining light though: UCLA’s new head coach.
While Indiana is sitting pretty with a proven Cignetti, the Bruins have DeShaun Foster, a former NFL running back who has no head coaching experience whatsoever. So even with the encounter still being an uphill battle, that is at least one layer of comfort the Hoosiers have in their corner, and it’s those kinds of advantages that will become increasingly common as we press on through today’s discussion.
Speaking of which, our next (and perhaps most extreme) example of changes in personnel altering the optics of a game is the second and final newcomer on Indiana’s slate—Washington.
We’d normally see Washington as all the bigger of a threat than UCLA, as the Huskies are coming off of a 14-1 run that was capped off with an appearance in the national championship, but that’s not the done deal it presents itself as.
Similarly to the Bruins, the Huskies are also breaking in a new head coach, though his (Jedd Fisch's) strong résumé for the job lessens the blow a bit. As a result, the worst part comes in with the roster instead, as its attempt to fill the last one's shoes has 2024 UW football looking like an absolute shell of its 2023 counterpart.
In short, Washington’s practically guaranteed plummet in competitiveness shouldn’t have the thought of facing the Hoosiers in Bloomington sitting right with a single Huskies fan.
But that’s not even where IU needs hope the most—this is
Moving onto what I call the “veteran” Big Ten powers, we have several alarm bells going off. The names to note consist of Maryland and Michigan at home, along with Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State on the road; four of those five schools won eight games or more last season.
When held next to Indiana’s 3-9, that stat paints those guys out as quite the loaded litter—and they are. But again, matters could be far worse. We’ll explain the weakest links away first, with Maryland, Northwestern and Michigan State making up the non-blue-blooded cast.
With both the Terrapins and Wildcats going 8-5 last year, they were good, yet very much beatable. Since the Terps demolished the Hoosiers in 2023, they’ve lost starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, on top of pivotal pieces from their offensive line and secondary. Them traveling to Bloomington after taking those hits has to have Indiana feeling like a big victory is within reach there.
Then we have the Cats, who rarely face the Hoosiers, and the last time they did so was before new HC David Braun came along. With that in mind, hopefully the meshing of their relatively competitive rivalry and limited familiarity between coaches will amount to more of a “go-either-way” affair.
Last and certainly least, we have MSU. With the Spartans looking to bounce back from a 3-9 display of their own, I’d hope them being labeled “beatable” needs little justification and, if anything, seems graciously worded.
Sure, they beat Indiana last season, and will be at home this time around, but the closeness of their previous duel joining forces with them also welcoming a first-year HC in Jonathan Smith results in a matchup that’s virtually impossible to predict.
That brings us to Michigan and OSU, Indiana’s two biggest threats for obvious reasons
Now for the biggest fish in the pond. Pairing Michigan with Ohio State gives you the toughest Big Ten duo possible, so I’m going to be straight-up before I say another word: The Hoosiers have what I would spitball as a 3% chance of downing just one of these giants, which urges me to issue the simple reminder that none of these conference games have been mentioned out of some passionate belief that Indiana will win them.
Rather, they are relevant solely out of Indiana’s potential to win them, and when holding its odds of doing so this year next to those of any other year (in either recent memory or the foreseeable future), both the Michigan and OSU games stand out as belonging in this conversation—but especially the Michigan one.
The Wolverines find themselves in a situation nearly identical to Washington’s, having lost not only handfuls of talent on both sides of the ball, but also their incredible head coach.
While I don’t think the departures will leave Michigan football in some atrocious condition, they’ll make Indiana’s shot at victory considerably easier than the one they had last year against the eventual national champ. Oh, and be sure to remember the fact that the Wolverines will be heading to Bloomington right after taking on Oregon; that can’t hurt.
Speaking of the Wolverines and how placement on a schedule matters, we have Ohio State’s meeting with Indiana in Week 12, also known as the one right before rivalry week.
What that means for the Buckeyes is that they won’t just be enduring the Hoosiers after somewhat struggling with them last year and losing their own share of playmakers, but will be doing so right before “The Game,” which is annually one of college football’s biggest showdowns (and one they’ve been on the losing end of for three years straight). Yeah, that won’t have them overlooking Indiana at all.
Again, this entire rant runs a high risk of being totally pointless; Curt Cignetti could need some serious time to make a sizable impact, the new faces on these teams could handle IU without flinching, and the Hoosiers could add another year to their unholy rut. However, the memo still stands: If they can’t get something cooking with the abundance of stars 2024 has aligned in their favor, I have no confidence they can with whatever the years that follow will have in store.