College football’s latest bouts with conference realignment have been heavily criticized and for good reason, but that doesn’t mean they can’t make things wildly entertaining. There is perhaps no league better at exhibiting this fact than the Big 12.
Of the Power 5 conferences that will be surviving to the 2024-25 CFB season, the Big 12 is the one going through the most change. Along with adding four members from the Pac-12 (just a year after adding four programs that had shined at the Group of 5 level), it’s also losing Oklahoma and Texas, both of which are far from replaceable.
In regards to both their financial and competitive footprints, the Sooners and Longhorns were the absolute last two names you’d ever want to see leaving your league if you were a commissioner…but you’re not. You’re a fan.
As a fan, you have to admit it’s pretty cool that, especially with all the newcomers in the pot, the bluebloods taking a hike unleashes quite a few possibilities for who can step up to replace them at the top of the Big 12 pyramid. But, with such a large pool of potential that lacks any concrete signs of CFP contention, it’s rather difficult to narrow down who has the strongest chances of doing so—unless you’re me, that is.
Upon the recent release of the Big 12’s schedules for next season, I was able to slash my way through the conference’s roster and come to a conclusion that I think the average fan will be more than happy to agree with. But first, let’s take a look at two teams that didn't make the cut for my final verdict: Kansas State and Oklahoma State.
The exclusion of both KSU and OKST seems criminal to say the least
This is surely a controversial reveal, as if you were to take a poll on squads that were most likely to compete at the top of the league, the Wildcats and Cowboys would at least make up two of the three most-submitted, and unsurprisingly so.
K-State has been a consistent contender in the Big 12 under Chris Klieman, and while OK State’s Mike Gundy has seen dips in his standard at times, the Cowboys have made multiple pushes for the conference crown throughout his extensive tenure, with the most recent being last year when they lost to a playoff-caliber Texas that, as previously established, will not be returning to the league. If they aren’t considered for having the best odds, then who are?
To those asking aggressively, don’t worry, the answers aren’t some irrelevant cellar-dwellers. They, like the Cats and Boys, are set to enter their 2024 slates on the right foot; what sets them apart is just how much more manageable said slates are. Their names? Kansas and Utah.
The basketball school and the newbie? Still looking hard to justify, I know
Once again, I find that I’m having to defend myself over some controversy here, especially when it comes to the Jayhawks, who have lost to their rival Wildcats for 15 years straight and haven’t even shared a conference title since 1968. However, since going 9-4 and beating Oklahoma—the only team to down the Longhorns in the regular season—for the first time this century, it’s safe to say that head coach Lance Leipold’s version of them doesn’t fit their usual mold.
As for their inferiority against Kansas State, I do concede that they run a good risk of losing to the Wildcats in Manhattan. But, while the Cats have about five Big 12 opponents that I would label as “questionable” (including OK State), the Jayhawks have two (neither of which are OK State).
Also, as KSU loses its quarterback, Will Howard, to Ohio State after his best season yet, Kansas has Jalon Daniels returning from a lengthy injury absence that he had shown great potential leading up to. I’m no expert, but I’d have to assume all of that could very well outweigh a single head-to-head result.
From there we have the Utes, who I can’t imagine are any bigger of curveballs to be in the running than the Jayhawks, as they are coming into the Big 12 after one of the most dominating stretches the team has ever seen.
In the last three years alone, Utah’s football program has won 28 games, including two Pac-12 title games in back-to-back appearances that were won by an average of over 25 points. And, similarly to Kansas, Utah also has just a couple of clear threats in their league play, along with an experienced QB (Cam Rising) returning from an extensive recovery period.
Especially when throwing in the fact that the Jayhawks and Utes don’t even have each other on their fall calendars, I feel most would agree that the two squads meeting in the 2024 Big 12 Championship game is quite a likely outcome at this point—but which one has the ultimate edge?
For me, the answer is pretty obvious, but if my previous quest to win you over in the selection of my finalists was remotely close to failing, I just might lose you here: It’s Kansas.
It’s easy to give Kansas the nod if you know where to look
Don’t worry, I’ll give the reasoning to you straight. There are two factors that I believe have the Jayhawks riding into next season on a stronger high than Utah, and those are their advantages in familiarity and trajectory. With the former being especially straightforward, we’ll get it out of the way first.
Regardless of where a school’s conference affiliation lies before and after realignment, its athletic programs will usually have to endure the change of scenery with a varying amount of trial-and-error.
In other words, while the Utes are good enough to compete in the Big 12 through the schedule that awaits them, common sense dictates that they will struggle in adapting to their five new league opponents (not including Baylor, an official non-conference opponent they beat last year) than the Jayhawks will to their three (one of which is Houston, as the Cougars didn’t face Kansas in their inaugural Big 12 run).
Secondly, we have the trajectory that the two teams are currently on, with the Jayhawks easily taking the cake in that department. While their 2023 finish (9-4) was only one game better than Utah’s (8-5), it was their best since 2007 and the latest of what has been a visible climb in the still-short Lance Leipold era (two wins to six to nine).
Meanwhile, Utah’s aforementioned results were visibly the program’s worst in recent memory, with the Utes not finishing with under nine wins in a full season since 2017 (which was also the last one in which they didn’t compete in the Pac-12 title game). Winning eight games is objectively decent, but when remembering their standard, I’m sure they would’ve preferred to get this next chapter of their football program started under prettier circumstances.
Building off of that, anyone who wishes to bring up how Utah was the only one to go the whole year without its QB1 needs to know that’s not the anti-Jayhawk zinger you think it is, as due to Rising suffering an injury far more severe than Daniels’, the Utes knew the low probability of him returning in 2023.
The same can’t be said for Kansas, who had Daniels ready to start the year all just to lose him a few games in. Therefore, Utah should have had its replacement(s) all the more prepared to lead its offense into battle than the Jayhawks had theirs to do the same.
And any strength of schedule argument does just as little, as even though the Pac-12 received great praise for how uncharacteristically tough it was, the Jayhawks encountered just as many 10+ win opponents in 2023 as the Utes did (3).
Okay, I think that’s everything, so let’s see here: The Big 12’s 2024 crown will come down between Kansas and Utah, with the Jayhawks entering the season on a stronger note headlined by both a schedule closer to their comfort zone, and a head coach who is yet to confirm just how much higher his ceiling reaches. With that, to say Oklahoma and Texas left behind a conference that is Kansas’s to lose would be putting it lightly.