For Coaches Like Chris Petersen And Mario Cristobal, Question Is Should You Stay Or Should You Go

Coaches are evaluated on a vast spectrum, yet the middle ground between poles is almost non-existent. In other words, you’re either deified or demonized. Perception between the two is rare, and the scale can tip in an instant.

Chris Petersen and Mario Cristobal are two who, thus far into their careers, have opted to stand pat in successful situations. Cristobal is Florida International football. The program has existed less than a decade, but in that time been to two bowl games — both under Cristobal, and each in the last two seasons. FIU is a favorable situation, playing in a new venue and having a deep, local talent pool from which to recruit. He was rumored in association with several openings, but will remain with the Golden Panthers in 2012.

BSU is the benchmark for non-power conference programs. Petersen didn’t establish the Broncos the way Cristobal has FIU, but Petersen has taken the program to unprecedented heights. Seemingly every Pac-12 opening over the last half-decade has sparked rampant Petersen rumors, but so far he’s been the Mark Few of the football world.

Such loyalty is commendable in an era of mercenary coaches, out for the bigger paycheck and greater prominence. But such coaches cannot be blamed for looking out for No. 1. Fan bases, and thus athletic program administrators, are fickle.

The erratic nature by which coaches are judged lends them to a demonstration in Warholian theory of fleeting fame. A sideline general can go from The It prospect to the unemployment line faster than Milli Vanili descended from Top 40 to laughingstock. Turner Gill can serve as a cautionary tale of what happens when one doesn’t strike while the iron’s hottest.

His masterful job leading Buffalo out of the cellar and to the 2008 MAC Championship made him one of the most sought after coaches in the ensuing job shell game, but he opted to remain at UB. Auburn famously took a pass on him, but he was rumored in association with the Tennessee job before declaring his intention to stay with the Bulls. Syracuse was another option, and perhaps the best fit — he would be close to the region in which he established his name, taking over a program with realistic expectations in a conference he could build a winner.

The job market a year later wasn’t as open, and Gill wasn’t the same prospect coming off a 5-7 finish. That landed him at Kansas, a notoriously difficult position. The ultra-competitiveness of the Big 12 put Gill at an immediate disadvantage. KU is a program with little past success, which often is a self-perpetuating cycle in college football. And while a gig like Tennessee would have pushed Gill into another deep, competitive conference, Tennessee’s commitment to winning football may have buoyed him longer than the two years he received at KU.

Kansas is a school where the football coach isn’t just competing with the teams on his schedule; he’s competing with one of the most prominent basketball programs in the nation. KU football takes a backseat to basketball. Asking a talented recruit to come play second fiddle can be a taxing endeavor. And while Syracuse is a basketball school in recent years, SU has football tradition on which to fall back. KU has been hoops first since Wilt Chamberlain suited up.

Gill was hit with the double-edged sword of extensive history and immediate impatience. KU brass wanted an immediate winner, but overcoming decades of futility is a process. So many programs that have had recent openings have been revolving doors in the past decade. KU is an example; Gill successor Charlie Weis is its fourth head coach in 10 years. UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State: all are also on their fourth head coach since 2001.

Not coincidentally, all were rumored to be after Petersen and none landed him. He apparently learned from the trail of pink slips left before him.

Petersen may also take caution because of the lack of success past Boise State coaches have experienced venturing away from the Smurf Turf. Houston Nutt, Dirk Koetter and Dan Hawkins all parlayed BSU success into gigs elsewhere. None are head coaches in 2012.

The contrast to that, however, is the higher the pedestal a coach is placed on by his own fan base, the longer the drop down.

To wit, Pat Hill. Fresno State suffered its worst season in the 15 years Hill was its head coach, a 4-9 finish hardly up to the standard the program has established for itself. This past postseason was just the second in which the Bulldogs did not participate since 1999.

Yes, Hill failed to meet expectations. But those expectations exist solely because of Hill. In a decade-and-a-half, he had just three losing seasons and qualified for nearly as many bowl games (12) as Fresno State had had every season from 1937 to 1998 (13).

Hill’s firing is evidence of how unforgiving the demand for instant gratification can be. That desire can sometimes trump an overall impressive body of work. The ensuing debate is What Have You Done For Me Lately vs. Overstaying Your Welcome.

Fresno State brass justified the fire thusly:

"“We’ve been evaluating data after each season for the last several years and we saw a trend that was not reflective of us being able to pursue the goal of a conference championship,” Athletic Director Thomas Boeh said. “And our community was not responding any longer to the record that we had.”"

Yet, the team returns a talented corps from an explosive offense. Derek Carr, Robbie Rouse and Jalen Saunders form as potent a triumvirate as any in the new-look Mountain West. Why not ride out the rough spell with Hill?

In the same press conference, Boeh blamed the beast: “He understands this industry, he understands how this works.”

Petersen and Cristobal are both in the midst of spring football with young squads. Boise State returns just three starters; FIU must replace its quarterback and star, do-everything wideout. The 2012 season will go a long way in establishing the long term viability of each with their current programs, as well as the market price for them elsewhere.