2011 Preview Blitz: Dark Horse FCS Championship Contenders
By Kyle Kensing
Eastern Washington. Appalachian State. Georgia Southern. Delaware. Expectations are high for certain FCS programs heading into 2011, and should they factor into the Playoff race come December it will be no surprise. Consider this, though. Of the four semifinalists in last year’s NCAA Playoffs, three started the campaign ranked No. 13 (Eastern Washington), No. 16 (UD) and not at all (GSU). Altogether, 11 of the 20 teams to participate in the postseason began 2010 out of the polls. These were surprises like Southeast Missouri State, Western Illinois, Coastal Carolina, Lehigh and North Dakota State.
“Out of nowhere” is so often used to describe such teams’ ascents, but as discussed in the SaturdayBlitz.com FBS Conference Dark Horse column, the elements that go into a “surprise” run are pretty typical.
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
A gimmick fielded program won the 2010 national championship — why not again in 2011? What happens on the Bears’ purple-and-gray turf will surely draw less attention than the field itself, but UCA is capable of accomplishing something just as noteworthy.
Last season was UCA’s first with Division I playoff eligibility. The Bears looked capable of capitalizing on that immediately too, cracking the Top 25 at one point. UCA finished 4-3 in league play and a respectable 7-4 overall, and should build upon that with an experienced roster. Arkansas transfer Nathan Dick threw for nearly 2600 yards. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was slightly worse than 2:1 though; improving upon that will be crucial for the Bear offense.
UCA had a stingy enough defense to finish 34th nationally with just over 21 points per game allowed. Linebackers Frank Newsome made 100 tackles, and Justin Heard had three sacks. Cornerback Jestin Love should land on the initial Buck Buchanan candidacy list, coming off a six-interception season.
Trent Miles’ overall record may not reflect it, but his time at Indiana State has to be considered among the best tenures in all college football, regardless of division. He inherited a Sycamore program on some very hard times, and suffered through some of his own in restructuring the program. His first two seasons yielded a combined 1-21 mark, but last season the seeds he planted began to sprout in the form of a 6-5 finish.
ISU should improve further in 2011. The key contributors on both sides of the ball from the ’10 campaign are back in action, including Washington transfer quarterback Ronnie Fouch. Fouch threw 20 touchdowns to just five interceptions and went for 2,252 yards. If his completion percentage improves from 58.1, the Sycamore offense will be even more dangerous than the 31.9 point per game yield of last year. The returns of tight end Alex Jones and wideout Justin Hilton should ensure that.
The Sycamore defense struggled against the Missouri Valley’s upper echelon, but is rich in experience this time around. Ben Obaseki and Jacolby Washington combined for 15 sacks and 162 tackles to pace a unit with its eight leading tackles back.
A logjam near the top of the Ohio Valley Conference had four squads boasting nearly identical records. Murray State was among that corps, but should have enough firepower to burst to the head of the pack. A cliche coaches like to emphasize is that special teams are equally important as offense and defense, and Murray State returner Dontrell Johnson is the best special teams player in the FCS.
Johnson had a nation-leading 22.8 yards per punt return and two for touchdowns. He was also a top defender for the Racers with 64 tackles and a team-leading eight broken up passes. If Johnson can continue to set the table, the Racer offense can replicate its fifth ranked point per game output of 36.1. Three Racer rushers combined for 26 touchdowns, all three of which are back (Mike Harris, Casey Brockman, Duane Brady). Brockman, the MSU quarterback, also threw a healthy 15 touchdowns, and 2,442 yards on a 66.7 percent clip.
All that separated Sac State from a perfect Big Sky season was 10 points. The Hornets fell to Montana 28-25, to Montana State 64-61, and Eastern Washington 28-24. Two of those were also road games, at Montana and EWU. An experienced bunch is likely to cash in those close losses for victories this time. Several Hornets return (sense a theme here?), with quarterback Jeff Fleming leading the pack. Fleming passed for 23 touchdowns and over 2000 yards, spreading scores among six receivers. The leaders among that group, Chase Deadder (six TDs, 788 yards) Morris Norrise (eight TDs, 532 yards) return.
The Hornet offense is well-balanced, and Bryan Hilliard is capable of a 1,000-yard season. He was just shy of 900 last year and scored 12 times. Sac State’s defense features a likely Buck Buchanan Award candidate, end Zack Nash. Nash made 13 sacks, good for No. 4 in the nation.
A team loses its two-year rushing leader to injury and maintains one of the best ground games in football. Seems unlikely, but that’s what Stony Brook did in 2010.
The Seawolves won a portion of the 2009 Big South championship and last season were in contention for a playoff berth on the final week. Head coach Chuck Priore welcomes back three ball carriers who have gone for 1000-plus yards: Edwin Gowins, the Seawolves’ leading rusher in 2008 and 2009 who missed nine games last season with an injury; Miguel Maysonet, who came to Stony Brook after Hofstra’s football program folded; and Brock Jackolski, another Hofstra transfer who emerged as the 2010 Seawolves Offensive MVP. Not since the Hydra has the world seen such a dangerous three-headed monster.
OK, so maybe that’s hyperbolic, but the trio should work like Wisconsin’s ’10 backfield of James White, Montee Ball and John Clay. If quarterback Michael Coulter can perform like former Badger Scott Tolzien and cut down on his turnovers, the Seawolves will have one of the nation’s most prolific offenses.