The Mountain West Conference has it pretty good right now. For years, TCU, BYU and Utah ruled the conference. Then, similar to how a mid-major coach moves up to a major college program after success coaching the lesser program, Utah and TCU chose to leave the Mountain West and join major conferences, the Pac-12 and the Big East respectively, and BYU decided to go independent in football and become the ‘Notre Dame of the West.’
Initially, it appeared the future of the conference as a BCS contender was uncertain. But the Mountain West regrouped and started adding teams to replace those it had lost. TCU, BYU and Utah, have become Boise State in 2011, and Nevada, Fresno State and Hawaii in 2012. Now, with talks of Texas A&M leaving the Big-12 to join the SEC and Oklahoma State and Oklahoma preparing for an offer from the Pac-12, it appears the Big-12 is the conference on its way out and the Mountain West is in the perfect position to take advantage.
After TCU’s shocking loss last Friday night in Waco, Texas to unranked Baylor, and then Boise State’s resounding victory over Georgia in the Chik-fil-A classic in Atlanta last Saturday, it is clear – TCU has officially passed the torch.
TCU is the two-time defending conference champions coming off an undefeated season and Rose Bowl victory. It would have been the perfect going away party – successfully defending your conference title and solidifying your claim as the best non-BCS program in the country. Instead, unlike Utah and BYU, TCU chose to hang around for one more year and now much watch as Boise State officially claims the throne from which TCU, BYU and Utah have ruled for the past 10 years.
Recently, Boise State and TCU have battled for the title of best non-BCS program. Two years ago, Biose State opened its season with a 19-8 defeat of Oregon in Boise. It was the first game of a season that finished with the Broncos, ranked No. 6 at the end of the year, beating then-No.4 ranked TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.
Last year, it looked as if the Broncos would challenge for a national title after opening the season with an upset of Virginia Tech and then rolling through a soft schedule before Kyle Brotzman was unable to kick a field goal or PAT and the Broncos fell to Nevada. That opened the door for the Horned Frogs, ranked behind Boise the entire year, to jump up in the standings and eventually play in the Rose Bowl.
The battle waswaged between conferences with Boise State formerly in the WAC. Now, finally in the same conference together for the first time and for one year only, TCU and Boise State will once-and-for-all settle the debate of which team is the best non-BCS program in the country.
If we use week one to forecast the rest of the year, leading up to the big showdown in Boise November 12, it’s apparent that the TCU defense clearly isn’t the same unit that dominated the Bowl Subdivision last year and, once again, Boise State is firing on all cylinders right out of the gate.
It was an embarrassing showing for the Horned Frog defense last Friday. Under college football’s version of Friday Night Lights in Texas, the nation’s top defense a year ago was embarrassed by Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III and the rest of the potent Bear offense.
The Horned Frogs returned Mountain West Defensive POY Tank Carder, a first-team All-American last year, at middle linebacker and Tanner Brock Jr., a third-team All-American a year ago, at strong-side linebacker. But, instead of TCU solidifying it’s claim as the top defense, like I predicted a week ago, it was the complete opposite.
Griffin finished with 359 yards, five passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, 38 yards rushing and he even had 15 yards receiving. It was an all-around effort that quickly established Griffin as the early Heisman front-runner. Overall, Baylor’s victory should pique the interest of the Mountain West. If the Big-12 dissolves, Baylor would be the perfect addition if the conference attempts to position itself as one a potential Big-6 BCS conference.
As the out-going conference champs headlined Friday night’s opening weekend with a loss, the future conference champ headlined a big Saturday night with a 35-21 victory over Georgia. It was the third-straight nationally broadcasted season-opener for the Broncos against a ranked opponent, and the third-straight year the Broncos opened 1-0. Since coming to Boise in 2006, Chris Peterson has recruited masterfully and kept the Broncos at the top of the non-BCS world.
Boise State joined the WAC in 2001 after leaving the lesser Big West conference. Boise’s thorough domination of the conference in the past 10 years helped their competitors improved and enable the Bronco’s to move up once again, this time to the Mountain West. If Chris Peterson can keep Boise State competitive after senior quarterback Kellen Moore leaves, then the Broncos have the opportunity to help the Mountain West grow, similar to what they did for the Big West.
Saturday proved just how pivotal Moore is to Boise’s success this year. He lost his top two receivers, Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL, but still managed to rack up 261 yards through the air on 28-of-34 passing, completing three touchdowns to just one interception. While the running game wasn’t as effective as it has been in the past, the defense excelled holding the Bulldogs to just 2-of-13 on third down conversions, including 1-for-4 on fourth down.
Last year, the Bronco defense was the second-ranked defense in the country, behind only TCU. It appears that a fall from the rankings as the top non-BCS program isn’t the only list on which TCU will fall this year.
Week two isn’t going to be much easier for the Horned Frogs, as they must play in the high altitude at Air Force, another long-time Mountain West team hoping to get the best of the defending champs. Boise, on the other hand, gets a week off to revel in their early success before travelling to Toledo September 17.
I finished last week with my picks and went 3-3. I’ll try to do better with my week two picks:
TCU (-1) at Air Force
Pick: Clearly, the odds-makers aren’t giving the Horned Frogs any leeway in this week’s line. In fact, neither am I. Air Force put up 35 points against a competitive South Dakota squad a week ago and I see that trend continuing. TCU needs to hope the offense can keep putting up points if the defense continues to struggle.
Air Force wins/covers 33-29
Northern Colorado at Colorado State (no line)
Pick: Colorado State eked out a tough win against New Mexico last week when they recovered a late fumble and thwarted an Aggie comeback. This week, I expect the Rams to get into a groove offensively, playing at home for the first time, and beat in-state their in-state rivals.
Colorado State wins 27-13
San Diego State (-10) at Army
Pick: Last week senior quarterback Ryan Lindley tossed four touchdowns and became the Aztec’s all-time leader in passing touchdowns in a rout of Cal Poly. This week, I expect the Aztec offense to be hot once again.
San Diego State wins/covers 35-20
Texas State at Wyoming (no line)
Pick: Wyoming should be the clear favorites this week. But, after the Cowboys struggles last week against FCS opponent Weber State, that isn’t necessarily a given. If the Cowboys hope to open the season 2-0, they have to stop Texas State’s running game. I think they will
Wyoming wins 34-23
New Mexico (+36.5) at Arkansas, in Little Rock
Pick: If I was going to give my picks confidence points, this matchup would be low my list of confidence. New Mexico is not a good team, and that was evident in the 14-10 loss last week at home to Colorado St. New Mexico was primed to complete a comeback but fumbled away the opportunity at the 5 yard-line. While I hesitate to pick Arkansas to win by 37-plus points, I just don’t think New Mexico is good enough offensively to compete on the road.
New Mexico loses/doesn’t cover, 56-10
UNLV (+14) at Washington St.
Pick: Before last week, I would’ve looked at this line and given the 14 points and taken the Cougars to win and cover. However, I expect UNLV to pick it up after being embarrassed by Wisconsin last Thursday night and, thanks to a broken clavicle to Cougar starting quarterback Jeff Tuel, should challenge Washington State throughout.
UNLV loses/covers 38-28