FCS Championship Roundtable: Measuring Sam Houston State & North Dakota State

The road to the NCAA Football Championship is a long one. The first playoff games kicked off a month-and-a-half ago. North Dakota State bested Georgia Southern, and Sam Houston State toppled Montana three weeks ago. With a three-week layoff, Saturday’s title game in Frisco, Texas almost feels more like a bowl game.

For the first time in nine seasons, the championship has zero representatives from the Southern and Big Sky Conferences or various incarnations that now make up the Colonial Athletic Association. NDSU rose out of the challenging Missouri Valley Football Conference to earn home field advantage all the way to Frisco, and the Bison defender their home turf with a methodical offense and stingy defense. Overall No. 1 seed SHSU was something of a wild card, despite its unbeaten record and top billing.

The Bearkats came out of the Southland, a league that has just one postseason victory in the last few seasons. When Stony Brook took SHSU to the brink in the Second Round, it seemed the Bearkats may have an uphill climb to the championship. But both Montana and Montana State experienced what SLC foes saw firsthand: a tenacious run defense and multifaceted running game makes this a dangerous team with which to contend.

The FCS Roundtable breaks down these two finalists, and what to expect come Saturday when they clash for a national championship earned via playoff. We also delve into the Walter Payton Award, which will be presented Friday night between finalists Chris Lum (QB, Lehigh), Shakir Bell (RB, Indiana State) and Bo Levi Mitchell (QB, Eastern Washington).

Kyle Roth, Bison Illustrated & Bison Sports Blog

By far the most impressive factor of this entire playoff run, to me, is the way the NDSU defense has performed against all three opponents in James Madison, Lehigh, and Georgia Southern, the latter two being perhaps two fo the top three most prolific offenses in the nation this season. To hold those two teams to a combined seven points is simply marvelous, and the way the defensive front was able to independently bring backfield pressure to stop first Lehigh’s Chris Lum and then the collective rushing of Georgia Southern’s talented backfield has to be a key factor in this championship match up. The Bison defense is one reason I like NDSU in the title game.

Sam Houston State, on the other hand, has simply proven wrong the Southland Conference doubters time and time again this season. After an underwhelming performance versus Stony Brook, the Bearkats turned it around and throttled Montana State and were able to hang onto an early lead versus a roaring Montana team. Tim Flanders might be the single best player left in the field and as a sophomore has to have caught the eye of defensive coordinators all over the country as they anticipate what should be a resurgent Bearkats team for next season.

The match up itself is one that draws a lot of intrigue, particularly between the two coaching staffs. On paper, NDSU’s Craig Bohl seems to be the favorite in the experience department as a former Nebraska defensive coordinator, and has plenty of bowl experience to draw on as he’s prepared his team over the past two weeks for a looming title game. Add in the “been there before” factor of last season’s quarterfinal run and back-to-back 10-1 seasons in 2006-07 and the experience is all there. On the other hand is SHSU’s Willie Fritz, who has taken Sam Houston to an undefeated record following fairly pedestrian finishes the past two seasons.

With each team fielding a titanic defense (NDSU and SHSU rank first and second in national scoring defense, respectively), offense and special teams will ultimately decide this championship game. I see a game in the twenties that is contested through the fourth quarter, but ultimately see the NDSU defense doing what it’s done all season and generating enough pressure to disrupt a high-flying Bearkats offense. I like the Bison by 10 as the rock-steady offense of Brock Jensen utilizes a healed up receiving corps that’s been depleted the past few weeks.

The Bison have done more with less against better competition all season, and I don’t see this panning out any differently as the Bison hoist their ninth national championship trophy on January 7th. My ticket is ready to go, and the trip and game should be fantastic.

Joe Suhoski, VBR Productions & SaturdayBlitz.com FCS Contributor

I honestly don’t know what to expect of this week’s championship game. My preseason pick for the national title, Georgis Southern, went into Fargo in the semifinals round hitting on all cylinders. But the NDSU Bison defense stopped them rather convincingly. Likewise, after struggling to beat Stony Brook in the playoffs, Sam Houston State dispatched Montana State and Montana in consecutive weeks rather easily.

The Bison allow 13.2 points per game; the Bearkats allow 14.8. Sam Houston scores a whopping 39.1 points per game; North Dakota State scores more than 32 of its own. There are playmakers on both sides of the ball for both teams, but the key matchup will be how well the Bison’s defense contains the Bearkat running game. Sam Houston rushes for 267 yards per game and has several players that can break long runs any time they touch the ball. Meanwhilel NDSU allows only 120 rushing yards.

If conference player of the year Tim Flanders gets it going on the ground early for SHSU, it will put pressure on on NDSU’s Brock Jensen to score points through the air. While he has had an effective season (2,404 yards with 13 touchdowns against four interceptions), his team relies on the running game more than the pass. I have to go by the “eye test” and I think Sam Houston State has too much team speed for North Dakota State. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see NDSU win; their defense is fantastic and they themselves have a phenomenal running game. But I expect the Bearkats to score a couple times early and force NDSU to throw more than they want to.

While I think Shakir Bell had a fine season (almost 1,700 yards with 16 touchdowns), I don’t see him beat out two quarterbacks for the Payton Award. Bell contributed only 13 catches on the season for 110 yards; without being more involved in the passing game, he was too one-dimensional to be considered the best offensive player in the country. Lum (336.8 passing yards/game, 32 TD’s and 17 INT’s) and Mitchell (364.5 passing yards/game, 33 TD’s and 13 INT’s) had comparable statistics. Although Mitchell edged him in the statistics, Lum guided his team to the quarterfinal rounds. Eastern Washington failed to make the playoffs.

Still, I expect Mitchell to win the award for a couple reasons. First, he had one more touchdown pass and more yards per game in fewer games. Second, I think voters will discount Lum’s statistics because he played in the Patriot Football League. Fair or not, it is not considered to be as good a conference as the Big Sky. These two factors give Mitchell the edge for the Payton Award.

Ben Moore, PantherTalk.com & SBNation Atlanta

I’ve been impressed with how both teams have stuck to their strengths. North Dakota State has been disciplined defensively and displayed an impressive rushing attack. I’m very interested to see how their patience matches up to an explosive Sam Houston State club which has scored 30+ points for 10 straight games. Sam Houston State is very balanced offensively and can physically match NDSU.

I expect a very good rushing attack on both sides and what team can force the issue at the line of scrimmage. I like North Dakota State a good bit in this game and expect a close victory for the title.

As far as the Payton Award, I’ve been on the Bo Levi Mitchell bandwagon and see no reason to let up. He had a tremendous 2011 leading FCS in passing yards per game 364.5 yards per game and passing touchdowns with 33.

Russell Varner, SouthernPigskin.com

I said this on Twitter the other day and I’ll say it again now – watching all the bowl games this past week really made me miss FCS football. Then, I suddenly realized that the championship game was this Saturday and suddenly my day got better. No lie.

It seems like it had been forever since North Dakota State and Sam Houston State last played, but this game should be worth the wait. These two squads have proven that they are the two best teams in the nation with their blowout victories in the semifinals, making picking a winner on Saturday even harder. It is a shame that kickoff is so early, because this game would be great to show in primetime.

Sam Houston State offense vs. North Dakota State defense

This will be the best matchup of the night. The Bearkats have earned the right to spell their nickname wrong because they have been downright unstoppable on offense. They are the highest-scoring team in the nation for a reason, mainly running back Tim Flanders who has 1,560 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns on the season. Their read option offense has been decimating all season, but so had Georgia Southern’s triple option offense prior to their game against the Bison and all North Dakota State did was limit the Eagles to just over half of their season average of 323 rushing yards. The Bison have talent all over and are led by corner Marcus Williams. They are an extremely aggressive bunch that will force turnovers whenever given an opportunity and swarm to the ball like sharks to chum.

North Dakota State offense vs. Sam Houston State defense

Much like their opponents on Saturday, the Bison are led by their powerful run game and their two-headed monster at running back – Sam Ojuri and D.J. McNorton who have combined for around 2,000 yards and 24 touchdowns. Quarterback Brock Jensen has proven to be very capable weapon as well, throwing for 2,404 yards with 13 touchdowns and just one interception while rushing for eight touchdowns as well. As good as the Bearkats’ O is, their defense is even better. No. 1 rushing D, no. 2 in scoring defense and no. 4 in pass efficiency and total defense. Their 4-2-5 formation has given opponents fits all season, led by linebacker Darius Taylor and defensive back Daxton Swanson (who is third in the nation in interceptions).

Prediction

I say it a lot in tight games like this, but you could flip a coin to determine the winner and have a good chance of picking the winner that way. I have flipped three times in the process of writing this. I’ll say the Bearkats because they have proven me wrong time and time again this year. Let’s see if they can make me look smart now.

Bearkats 23, Bison 19