Unfortunately for Matt Barkley, Being Heisman Favorite Often Isn’t Favorable

Matt Barkley became the presumptive 2012 Heisman Trophy front runner less than two weeks after Robert Griffin III used his Superman socks to fly away with the 2011 version. Barkley is everything the Downtown Athletic Club could want in its representative as college football’s best player: philanthropic, talented, handsome, articulate and quarterback of a recognizable program.

With the nation’s best receiving corps surrounding him, and the hype machine one would expect from Los Angeles’ pro football club (a Southern Californian joke on its lack of an NFL franchise, not a commentary on Reggie Bush), it’s obvious Barkley would be the runaway favorite.

But history proves being the favorite isn’t always favorable.

The aforementioned Griffin swooped in from an unlikely location to take last season’s hardware, besting Alabama running back Trent Richardson and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. Each was the star of a pre-season championship favorite, and in many regards Luck was the 2011 counterpart to Barkley: well established, West Coast quarterback with a laundry list of credentials and buzz. Luck’s passed on NFL riches after finishing runner-up to surprise emerging superstar Cam Newton in 2010, and was deemed the runaway favorite to claim the bronze statue in 2011.

The 2009 Heisman Trophy selection was going to prove difficult, a point made abundantly clear in the pre-season. And it was. However, not because two previous winners were returning for their senior seasons in Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford and Florida’s Tim Tebow, as well as 2008 finalist Colt McCoy. Only McCoy cracked the top three, finishing third in the closest vote ever.

Bradford’s inability to repeat is a special circumstance, but a reminder nonetheless that meeting the zenith of individual expectations is an arduous task with countless pit falls to traverse.

An injury like Bradford is a rare occurrence, but one possibility among many. Other factors contributing to an early Heisman favorite’s include the hype itself.

Abilities of a Heisman favorite are embellished over a long, football-less summer, almost to Homeric levels of exaggeration.

OK, so that in and of itself is exaggeration. But being the standard for other players to meet means having sky high standards in turn. Take the aforementioned Luck. All he did was guide Stanford to 11 wins and its second consecutive BCS bowl. His numbers were downright eye popping, yet very similar to his 2010 production. Thus, he ended in the same place as 2010: as a runner-up.

Luck was at a disadvantage against both Newton and Griffin in that Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw ran systems that required a lower percentage of Luck. Yes, he was an absolute vital cog to the Cardinal’s 23 wins those two seasons. But the presence of cohorts like Stepfan Taylor and Griff Whalen made SU appear less of a one-man operation.

Barkley is in a similar situation. The Trojans have two wide receivers worthy of Heisman buzz in their own right, Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. The Trojans also run a Pro Set offense that requires more use of the tailback, similar to Stanford. Once Curtis McNeal was an established weapon in the offense a season ago is when the Trojans went into a higher level.

Unfair as it may be, there’s certain validity to it. Teammates can usurp Heisman consideration from a front runner, like 1994 favorite Ki-Jana Carter. He came in second to the underwhelming selection of Rashaan Salaam in part because of sharing the spotlight (and wins) with Kerry Collins.

Miami’s Willis McGahee suffered a similar fate, splitting votes with quarterback Ken Dorsey and splitting the Hurricanes’ success with one of the best defenses in college football history.

There’s also an attrition that months of hype causes. Pundits push a name for months, so when a new one emerges it commands attention. So much of winning the award is peaking the right time, which means kicking into a higher gear come November. That’s precisely what Newton and Griffin, and to some extent Mark Ingram in 2009 did.

Reggie Bush was the last pre-season Heisman favorite who managed to find a gear even higher come November, and secure his

place among the pantheon of winners

. His jaw-dropping effort against a top 20 Fresno State team late in the 2005 campaign raised the bar on his own lofty expectations, allowing him to overcame both overexposure, and a shared spotlight to

bring top honors back to USC

.