FCS Roundtable: The Closing Gap Between Subdivisions

This year could, and probably should set a new benchmark for Championship Subdivision programs defeating the Bowl Subdivision. Previously, the Roundtable discussed Savannah State and so-called paycheck games, which have earned derision from pundits who see these match-ups as meaningless. But for other programs who take home a lot more than some spending cash, these games woo recruits and build fan bases — vital ingredients to sustaining successful football.

The success of the FCS suggests a much more narrow gap than those without extensive knowledge of the subdivision might guess.

Sep 15, 2012; Waco, TX, USA; Sam Houston State Bearkats running back Tim Flanders (20) runs for a first down during the game against the Baylor Bears at Floyd Casey Stadium. The Bears defeated the Bearkats 48-23. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

Joe Suhoski, VBR Productions.com

Of the FBS vs FCS games played this weekend, I’m keeping an eye on The Citadel at NC State. The Bulldogs are the surprise of the SoCon after the first three weeks, with a win against Georgia Southern and a fairly convincing road win at Appalachian State. The Wolfpack themselves are 2-1 with wins over UConn and South Alabama, but The Citadel is surely playing with supreme confidence right now. I’d like to think Norfolk State has a shot against Ohio but the 3-0 Bobcats themselves look too tough, with road wins at Penn State and Marshall. The Spartans are doing better than I expected following the graduation of Chris Walley at quarterback.

To argue there is no gap between an average FBS team and an average FCS team is folly. The vast majority of games between schools of these subdivisions are won by Bowl Subdivision teams. Nevertheless, the issue isn’t so much that there’s a gap as it is the general public’s perception of the gap. The top teams from the full-scholarship FCS conferences have starting linesups that can compete with non-BCS teams. We’ve seen this firsthand in prior years just in the CAA with wins by James Madison, William and Mary, New Hampshire and Richmond. The average fan is simply ignorant of how good teams from the SoCon, MVFC and Big Sky can be, and are therefore surprised by “upsets.”

The gap may indeed be closing between the bottom of FBS programs and the elite FCS schools. Early-season victories by the “lower” subdivision are clear evidence of this. But over the course of a season, the depth afforded FBS programs with additional scholarships will continue to provide them an advantage. I’ve noticed a difference in response among fans when FCS schools land two-and-three-star recruits (deserved excitement) versus when FBS land them (almost par-for-the-course). This difference in talent level on top of additional scholarships will result in a natural gap between the subdivisions.

Two circumstances have led to 2012’s FCS success. First is the aforementioned talent in the starting lineups of teams that have won. Reigning champion NDSU could easily compete in the a non-BCS FBS conference this year. I think the other situation is similar to how teams advance in the playoffs – sometimes it simply comes down to matchups. Some of the FBS teams that lost (e.g., Idaho) are simply not as good as the FCS teams to which they lost (Eastern Washington). That was the right matchup for the Eagles, but could they have beaten other WAC teams? Unfortunately they won’t get a chance to see, but they beat the team that was on their schedule and that’s what matters.

Shaun Bummer, Griz Nation Blog

The FCS has had a tremendous amount of success against FBS opponents this season, and I think the FCS will continue that success, even though there aren’t many solid FCS vs. FBS games left. One upset upcoming Saturday many see looming is Stephen F. Austin over Texas State. The Lumberjacks have plenty of offensive talent and played Montana State tough. On the other side, we really don’t know how good Texas State is after surprisingly routing Houston in week one before getting drubbed by a pass happy Texas Tech team in week two.

Additionally, I’m intrigued to see what The Citadel’s ground game behind QB Ben Dupree can do against North Carolina State. Although I don’t think the Bulldogs will pull of the upset, the Bulldogs put up 463 yards against an Appalachian State team with a strong linebacking corps, and if The Citadel can control the ball and limit Wolfpack QB Mike Glennon, things could get interesting.

A week 11 match up with great “upset” potential – and we use that term loosely here – is McNeese State @ Texas-San Antonio. While UTSA is practically at the level of an FCS program, the Cowboys have a great shot to win this game and have already beaten another FBS team in Mid Tenn State in week one.

When it’s all said and done though, I think this season we’ll see FCS teams get to more than ten wins over FBS teams. Again, I think Stephen F. Austin has a great chance of beating Texas State week, while McNeese State is more than likely to beat UTSA in week 11. While the FCS vs. FBS take a step down in number and quality after week four, I think we can expect to see another of a “random”, under-the-radar, more surprising upset (Sacramento State over Colorado). For this, look at games such as Stony Brook @ Army and Samford @ Kentucky.

With those three wins, that would bring the FCS over FBS victories to 12, easily breaking the record.

Kyle Roth, College Sports Journal & MVFC Fan

I think the evidence is starting to point toward more and more programs in the FCS competing. As we’ve seen in the Southern Conference the past two weeks, a team like Citadel can fly up out of nowhere and deliver a couple of gut-punches to teams that are considered yearly contenders in the subdivision. Same story with Towson last year – as more and more teams are able to fund their programs to the utmost and employ the full 63-scholarship limit, it affords more and more teams the ability to spring a Cal-Poly kind of win and contend in the FCS.

Sure, the Savannah States of the league are going to take whatever medicine they have to to put the ledger in the black, but I think this is the manifestation of FCS schools taking their programs more seriously. Success breeds success, and I think this recent flash of victories is only going to propagate outward as the Patriot League starts doing athletic scholarships and conferences like the NEC continue to incrementally up their involvement in their football teams.

Don’t have my eye on too many at this point, but the Sam Houston State-Texas A&M matchup in the final week of the season is huge. While the Bearkats may not have a great chance to win, they could be looking at their playoff hopes being on the line, startlingly, after lining up two FBS teams and a sub-DI opponent in a 10-game schedule. A single conference loss puts them on the ropes, and if Central Arkansas or McNeese State can pull off the upset, they’re in the driver’s seat of a conference that hasn’t overwhelmed the past few seasons.

In any case, my aforementioned take on the rising tide in the FCS combined with the drama of conference season starting up has my mouth watering for the next few weeks of FCS football.

Sep 15, 2012; Iowa City, IA, USA; Northern Iowa Panthers quarterback Sawyer Kollmorgen (17) drops back to pass against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the game at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Purdy/The Des Moines Register via US PRESSWIRE
Russell Varner, SouthernPigskin.com

At first, when I looked at the question, I thought there’s no way we see double-digit FCS over FBS wins this year. But, the more I thought about it, the more I thought why not now? If not now, when? I say that we see the FCS at least tie the record for most wins over FBS teams this year. Who will do it though? I’ve got my eyes on the hottest team in the nation – The Citadel Bulldogs. They have come off of back-to-back victories over Georgia Southern and Appalachian State (the later a throttling in Boone) and are playing as well as just about anyone. This weekend, they travel to Raleigh, NC to face off against an NC State team that has underwhelmed to this point in the season.

Again, why can’t the Bulldogs pull off the upset? Others I like are Idaho State-Nebraska (admittedly, my knowledge of Idaho State can be considered lacking at best, but I believe Nebraska is overrated and will be vulnerable), Alabama A&M-Auburn (the Bulldogs are undefeated so far and the Tigers are a far cry from Cam Newton’s championship squad) and Sam Houston State-Texas A&M (this will be a tough game for the Bearkats, but they did make the championship game last year for a reason – this team is very talented).

And while I am still not a big fan of FBS-FCS matchups (as I stated a week ago), the difference between FCS and FBS does seem to be getting smaller and smaller each year. This season seems like the closest FCS teams have been to FCS squads in quite some time, if not ever. Ever since the Mountaineers’ upset of Michigan in the Big House, it seems like there have been more wins, in particular against higher profile teams. Part of it is probably due to the fact that these teams play early in the season, when the FBS teams may not be completely sharp or 100%.FBS teams may look at the FCS matchups as nothing more than a preseason game and count them out before kickoff even begins. You also are seeing better and more well-coached FCS teams, so when a team like Sacramento State faces off against a team like Colorado, you will see more upsets there, like we had this season.

SoCon John, SaturdayBlitz.com

I think this is a trend that began by the old guard conferences back in the early 1990’s with leagues like the SoCon and Big Sky. In that era, it was routine to see SoCon and Big Sky teams to knock of FBS foes…For me, the more amazing thing is the FCS teams (Northern Iowa comes to mind because they have done it for so long) to compete with the SEC, Big 12 and ACC teams as of late.

Montana routinely used to beat Idaho and even though Idaho was FBS, no one actually ever believed they were going to beat Montana in those games. When I was 11, I watched Furman nearly knock of defending national champion Georgia Tech in Atlanta, shutting down quarterback Shawn Jones, and it took a game-winning field goal from Scott Sisson to allow the Ramblin Wreck to escape with a 19-17 win at Grant Field/Bobby Dodd Stadium. And so when ASU beat No. 5 Michigan, it didn’t really surprise as much as it did some.

The FCS had been on the brink of springing so many major upsets in previous years, so it was just the perfect series of events that came together on Sept. 1, 2007, and most importantly, those FCS teams now believe because of ASU’s win.

Todd Davis, JMU Sports Blog

Seems likely. Stephen F. Austin over Texas St. seems a likely candidate and Citadel’s option against NC State couldn’t be considered a true long shot this week. Next week, Stony Brook at Army is also a strong possibility.

Lots of reasons, but a few stand out.

First, seems to us the talent gap between top-level FCS and bottom-level FBS is smaller than that of either top FBS/Bottom FBS or top FCS/Bottom FCS. One of the big things has to be all of the exposure now available to top-level FCS teams and the “truth-in-recruiting” that allows high schoolers to figure out. When they see Victor Cruz, Joe Flacco, Arthur Moats, Brian Quick, Mark Mariani, etc. on television on Sundays AND they can see their college programs so much more on Saturdays either on television or streaming, it makes that FCS coach’s “wouldn’t you rather get a real opportunity here than be fourth-string at an FBS school” sell-job a lot more believable.

Second, FCS teams at the top are scheduling smart lately. Teams aren’t just automatically signing up for the big paydays in Baton Rouge or Tuscaloosa year after year, but are now alternating in teams from the lower-tier FBS conferences like the SunBelt and CUSA, providing more realistic opportunities. The App. St. or JMU-style upsets over high-level BCS Conference teams are still the exception rather than the rule, but the chance to get a win has been scheduled in much better by savvy FCS teams.

But one of the biggest things is the recent migration of programs up to FBS. Many of these programs have little or no tradition, history, or infrastructure and their simply in over their heads. Seems to us this is only going to get worse the next few years with programs like Georgia St. and Charlotte trying to go the UTSA or TSU quick route up and then exposing the the FBS to even more FCS losses.