FCS Roundtable: Who Can Stop Defending Champion North Dakota State?

Sep 24, 2011; Minneapolis, MN, USA: North Dakota State Bisons quarterback Brock Jensen (16) escapes a sack in the first quarter against the Minnesota Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE
North Dakota State lost just once on its march to the NCAA championship a season ago. With a reloaded defense and experienced offense, the Bison avenged that sole blemish on its 2011 docket in spectacular fashion last Saturday, routing Missouri Valley Football Conference rival Youngstown State. The Penguins came into Fargo ranked in the top 10 with a win over a BCS conference opponent, but left as no threat to NDSU’s dominance.

So who can stop the Bison from winning a second national championship? The FCS Roundtable panelists offered suggestions of who, and what, it would take to trip up the champions.

Kyle Roth, MVFC Fans & College Sports Journal

To provide a little context to my segment this week, I’ve been a fan of this NDSU team since my first home game as a freshman back in 2008. I’ve been professionally covering this team for the better part of the past five years, and trying to balance said professionalism with my status as a fan is always a little tricky. As a result, both from an emotional standpoint and one of a journalist trying to cover a beat in as neutral a manner as possible, retaining a certain skepticism is necessary so as not to be seen as some rube behind a keyboard. Said skepticism was prevalent all throughout last year’s title run (although I did pick the Bison to go to Frisco) and while it did provide me the necessary leverage against my inner fan, it was also something of a slight buzzkill to sit there and second-guess every spark of optimism I felt as the Bison flattened every playoff opponent in front of them.

In the same vein this year, I’m trying to find some chink in the armor the Bison have forged themselves as they’ve absolutely demolished everyone who scheduled them this year. Such a chink certainly hasn’t exposed itself yet, and at this point, after simply dissecting the #3 team in the country (who I firmly believe should remain in the top ten despite their getting embarrassed), I have no safety blanket to fall back on.

There is, quite simply, no team in the Football Championship Subdivision that can stop NDSU when they’re playing they’re kind of ball.

The defense? It’s been the story of the past two seasons as the return to the Tampa-2 has yielded one of the most powerful defenses in FCS playoff history, holding what was essentially the three top offenses in the country to a combined 13 points last season. Arguably the most potent secondary in the country is led by an All-American who might be one of the top overall defenders (if not players outright) in the country in Marcus Williams. In his junior year, Williams has set the NDSU record for defensive touchdowns and his best games are still in front of him. Over the past eight games back to the quarterfinals versus Lehigh, this defense has stymied some of the best quarterbacks in the country and looked good doing it. YSU’s Kurt Hess was one of the top passers in the country and hadn’t yet thrown a pick prior to this past Saturday before the Bison defense snagged two of his passes, one of which was turned into six points by Williams. Combined with a very stout defensive line backed by a starting trio of linebackers that can halt any rusher in the country, the Bison defense feels like it can not only provide opportunities for the offense, but even do its part in scoring points against any offense in the country.

That’s not even the best part, though. The real story this year has been the emergence of the Bison offense, who sits at #15 in the country in total yards and #4 in scoring offense. The past four years have been marred by poor offensive performances, chiefly dealing with the quarterback position and secondarily with a thin receiving corps. Even last year’s title team was looking primarily to Warren Holloway and Ryan Smith out of a lack of talent elsewhere, save for tight end Matt Veldman. This year, a pair of stud receivers in sophomores Zach Vraa and Trevor Gebhart have done wonders to open the field for the rest of the team, and for the first time since 2007 the Bison are actually a threat to go deep. Quarterback Brock Jensen has risen from a half-decade of shoddy passers like a phoenix from the ashes and is making his case as one of the most efficient passers in the country. Sophomore John Crockett got the opportunity to start over Sam Ojuri this past Saturday, and responded with 100 yards and 2 scores in the 48-7 thrashing of the Penguins.

Carefully notice how I’ve yet to use the word “senior” in this segment. The vast majority of the team’s main contributors are only juniors, and as good as the team seems now, it’s poised to be even better next year. That said, with arguably the two toughest conference games out of the way (@UNI, vs. YSU) in dominating fashion, the Bison look to continue their rampage through the MVFC and secure a top playoff seed and the home field advantage it guarantees. As the Bison are nigh indestructible at home when 19,000+ rowdy fans are turning playbooks into toilet paper, this team has to be one of the heaviest favorites in a while to not only win out their conference but to bring home the national championship in a reunion tour to Frisco, Texas.

To reiterate – I’ve been selling positivity and prognostication on this team for a few years, and staying grounded is one of the things I take very seriously about this whole schtick. That said, it’s hard not to look at the body of work thus far and imagine that any team is going to find a dent in the rock-solid team Coach Craig Bohl and his staff have put together. The Bison are ready to roll, and I don’t think anybody in the FCS can stop them.

Rob Abbott, JMUSportsBlog.com

That was definitely a bit of a statement win by the Bison last Saturday and thus far they’ve definitely proven that they’re worthy of their #1 ranking. They are an excellent football team with a fairly dominant defense. Dominant defenses defenses don’t always make a team unbeatable and this NDSU team is far from unbeatable. Legitimate contenders to repeat, sure. But not unbeatable. There are a number of teams that could trip up NDSU on their path to the championship.

Two teams facing off this weekend, Georgia Southern and Wofford, both probably have the talent and type of team that could give NDSU a run for its money. Both teams have pretty awesome defenses in their own right (GSU is 3rd in Total Defense and Wofford is 4th in Scoring Defense) and they can also do some damage on offense. Each team is ranked in the top 11 for both Offensive Efficiency and Scoring Offense.

The Fargodome is a tough place to play, but if the winner of Saturday’s Wofford vs GSU game goes onto to win the SoCon they could secure a seed and find themselves on the other side of the bracket from NDSU. As a JMU fan and blogger, I’m getting sort of sick of discussing ODU’s offense, but there’s no denying that seeing Heinicke and the Monarchs line up across from the Bison defense would be must see TV And there’s no reason why ODU couldn’t come out on top. Finally, forgive me for the homer pick here, but last year’s JMU team went toe-to-toe with the Bison so the Dukes definitely wouldn’t be intimidated if they had to face them again.

Russell Varner, SouthernPigskin.com
Sep 10, 2011; Clemson, SC, USA; Wofford Terriers head coach Mike Ayers during the third quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Tigers won 35 to 27. Mandatory Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-US PRESSWIRE
The more I look at North Dakota State, the more they remind me of Alabama – balanced, powerful offense; suffocating, top of the line defense; solid from top to bottom and seemingly with very few challenges left en route to back-to-back national championships.

In order to take down the Bison, you’re going to have to find a team that ranks among the best in the nation in offense and defense, in order to keep up with North Dakota State. Only four teams not named North Dakota State are currently ranked in the top 20 in the country in both offense and defense: Montana State, Wofford, Georgia Southern and McNeese State. As such, I believe that those teams have the best shot at taking down the Bison. Granted, it may not be much of a shot, but it is still a shot. As it stands right now, the national title remains North Dakota State’s to lose, much to the delight of Kyle Roth I’m sure.

Who can challenge the Bison defense? The easiest way to answer that question would be to look at the top offenses in the FCS, teams like Old Dominion, Eastern Illinois, Wofford, New Hampshire and Harvard. If I had to pick just one of those five, I have to go with Old Dominion. The Monarchs average 654 yards per game, nearly 120 yards more than second place Eastern Illinois, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke is playing arguably the best football in the country. If anyone can give the Bison a challenge, it would be them.

SoCon John

I think head coach Craig Bohl has done a tremendous job in getting the Bison to where they are as a program. As far as a team that could come in and challenge that defense in the playoffs if the matchups fall right, I think you have to look at a conference that invented scoring points in the FCS and that’s the Big Sky.

Two teams come to mind right off the bat from that conference and they Eastern Washington and Montana State. Eastern Washington ranks 16th in the nation in total offense (448.6 YPG) and Montana State ranks 19th in total offense (433.8 YPG). Another team that would offer some challenges to the Bison right now could be Appalachian State, especially with the way Jamal Jackson is playing.

With a team like NDSU, they are so disciplined and sound defensively that the Bison offense can sometimes afford to take chances and even make mistakes because their defense is able to bail them out. Tough to beat a team like that. It reminds me a lot of the 2006 Appalachian State team that won its second national title, dominating everyone at the FCS level en route to the national title.

Joe Suhoski, VBR Productions

Phil Hansen’s alma mater, North Dakota State University, certainly looks like the best, most-complete FCS team in the country. Frankly the only way they fail to win the national title is if they have an off-day during the playoffs; if they play up to their potential every game, I don’t see how another team is good enough to beat that defense.

The contenders in alphabetical order are James Madison, Montana State, Old Dominion and Sam Houston State. The Dukes play tough defense and can run with the best of teams. Their own playoff run last year ended at the hands of the Bison but they were in the game throughout. The 2012 JMU squad appears to be even better than last year.

Sam Houston seems to be back on track after scoring 101 points combined in their last two games, but they themselves were beaten in the national title game last year. Could SHSU expect to beat a defense that dominated them in the title game? The Bobcats are averaging more than 37 points per game on their way to a 6-0 start, having scored more than 40 in three of their last four. This weekend will be a big test for them as they host 4-1 Eastern Washington.

That leaves Old Dominion. Frankly the defense has not played like a championship-caliber defense through five games. They showed a marked improvement in discipline and wrapping up ball carriers from their win over New Hampshire to their latest win at Richmond. The team held Spiders to 17 points through three quarters before UR went into hurry-up mode and scored two TD’s in the fourth quarter (Richmond’s D scored a TD on a pick-six).

The offense is a different story, however. I learned football as a youth when Jim Kelly started taking the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs. The K-Gun took off in a 1989 playoff loss at Cleveland, and it springboarded the team to Super Bowl appearances the next four years. The keys to the offense were fast receivers; a running back who could catch passes like a WR; a line in supreme physical condition for the speed of the hurry-up; and a quarterback who could make the right decisions – both before and after the snap.

Old Dominion has all of those factors (albeit on the collegiate level). Whereas the K-Gun used three wideouts, a TE and a running back, Bobby Wilder’s squad uses four receivers and a back. Their hurry-up pace provides them quick-striking ability; in games against Campbell and New Hampshire they had seven touchdowns on drives that lasted less than one minute.

The NY Giants beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV by dominating the top of possession (they had upwards of 40 minutes of TOP), keeping Buffalo’s offense off the field. When Jim Kelly did have the ball, New York’s defenders made few mistakes tackling. Andre Reed’s crossing patterns that destroyed AFC teams that season were bottled up by Giants’ linebackers.

I go into this much detail because I’ve seen every snap of ODU’s offense this season, and it’s been like watching Jim Kelly circa 1991. I am supremely intrigued by how a superior defense like NDSU would match up against the Monarchs. It is a matchup of teams with styles exactly like the most memorable game I ever saw. Once ODU’s offense gets going and they enter hurry-up mode, they can drop 64 points against a good defense like New Hampshire’s.

I can’t begin to predict who would win the matchup, but Old Dominion has more scoring ability than any team in the FCS (it currently leads the subdivision with 56.2 points per game). Whether their defense can compete with NDSU’s offense is a different story. This is a national championship game I’d love to see.