What We Know: Alabama
Jan 7, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back T.J. Yeldon (4) runs against Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback KeiVarae Russell (6) during the second half of the 2013 BCS Championship game at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Over the next few weeks, we will start taking a look at the SEC teams and discuss the apparent strengths and weaknesses of them as the 2013 season nears.
The idea is to identify what we “know” – as much as we can “know” anything about a season that has yet to start. We will also examine what we think we know, what we don’t know and when we might have answers to the biggest questions.
Alabama Crimson Tide
What We Know
Nick Saban will have his team primed to contend for yet another national championship – Since his second year in Tuscaloosa, Saban’s team has compiled an unbelievable record of 61-7. Over the last five years, only in 2010 did his team not have a chance to play in the BCS National Championship Game by SEC Championship Game weekend. The team fell short in 2008, losing the title game to Florida, but has since won three national championships in four seasons. The Crimson Tide will almost certainly be in the mix again this year despite losing a great deal of talent. Saban is the best in the game – as a recruiter, as a game-day coach and as a motivator. This team is simply too talented – and Saban too good – to not be in the championship conversation again in 2013.
QB AJ McCarron gives Alabama a steady presence at the game’s most important position – Alabama has been so good since McCarron took over as starting quarterback that, ironically, the senior hasn’t received enough credit. Skeptics argue that McCarron has all the advantages better individual passers don’t – an amazing, all-world offensive line, the pick-of-the-lot in skill positions, a dominant defense that can relieve pressure off of him. Quietly, though, McCarron posts amazing numbers considering he is often called upon to run out the clock on big leads. He threw for 2,933 yards, 30 TDs and just 3 INTs a year ago. More importantly, nothing rattles McCarron – not big stages, not high expectations, not even hostile crowds such as Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. In two seasons as the starter, McCarron has never lost a championship game or a road game.
Outstanding skill position weapons surround McCarron – RB Eddie Lacy is gone. If detractors think that will have any impact on the Alabama run game, they aren’t paying attention. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson have both left and the ground game has only improved. It will be no different under RB T.J. Yeldon who, as a sophomore, is arguably the best back in the nation. Yeldon rushed for 1,108 yards and 12 TDs as a part-time player last season. Saban always likes to get his next man up reps, but Yeldon can be expected to get the bulk of the carries. When he does take a breather, Saban can turn to a number of strong options, led by Dee Hart and incoming freshman (and human battering ram) Derrick Henry. Reports indicate that of the group, Henry seems the most likely to be the Next Big Thing at Alabama. WR Amari Cooper was the breakout player of the year to whom people simply didn’t pay the proper amount of attention. As a true freshman, he caught 59 passes for 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Alabama’s next two leading receivers – Kevin Norwood and Christion Jones – return as well.
Kirby Smart will again field one of the top defensive units in the nation – Led by LB C.J. Mosley, an Alabama defense that lost tons of talent to the NFL (again) will be just fine (again). Mosley, an All-America player in 2012, is likely the best linebacker in college football. Alabama returns all four starting linebackers from last season, including Adrian Hubbard. S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has the potential to be the best safety in the country if he lives up to potential. CB Deion Belue has struggled with a hamstring injury during August camp and might not be available for the start of the season. Whenever he returns, he will be among the best in the conference. The biggest questions exist on the defensive line. Smart, like John Chavis at LSU, does an excellent job subbing in backups to make sure they get critical experience. DT Brandon Ivory has all the tools to be very good in the middle of the line.
What We Think We Know
Despite losing three starters, the offensive line will not miss a beat – This one almost automatically jumps to the higher confidence level just because it’s Alabama. Losing three All-America players – C Barrett Jones, G Chance Warmack and T D.J. Fluker – at least leaves a little question – even in Tuscaloosa. Don’t shed any tears for the Crimson Tide, though. It still returns T Cyrus Kouandjio and G Anthony Steen – both of whom are top-of-the-line in the SEC. With the way Saban has recruited, he and his team have earned tremendous benefit of the doubt. Saban can talk as much as he likes about not being happy with his team’s effort in scrimmages. When the lights come on, it’s still a great bet that Alabama will impose its will against opposing defenses.
What We Don’t Know
Can the Crimson Tide roll to a third consecutive national championship? – Can they? Of course. Will they? That’s another question. As much as fans go on about Alabama going for BCS-era history with a three-peat, it’s easy to forget that both championship teams lost a game. It took not only tremendous talent, but also some luck to win those championships – and not recover-an-onside-kick luck, either. If Baylor hadn’t beaten Kansas State or Stanford hadn’t beaten Oregon in November last year, Alabama wouldn’t have even appeared in the BCS National Championship Game. Ditto if Oklahoma State had taken care of business in Ames, Iowa against the Cyclones two years ago. Alabama should be a great team again in 2013, but that doesn’t mean it won’t lose in the vaunted SEC. It’s easy to simply pencil the SEC champ into the title game, but it wouldn’t be that simple if two teams from big-time conferences run the table. When Will We Know? Not until after the season ends and someone hoists the crystal football – whether or not it’s Saban.
Who can stop Alabama? – Virginia Tech gets the first shot on a neutral field and this year’s team should be better than the disappointing squad from last year. With the Crimson Tide missing the top three teams from the SEC East, an SEC team will almost certainly have to be from the West. Texas A&M, which handed its lone loss last season, gets Alabama at Kyle Field in Week 3. LSU, the only other team to beat the Crimson Tide in the last two years, must play at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Ole Miss plays the type of offense that has given Saban’s defenses trouble, but that game is also in Tuscaloosa. Auburn at least gets Alabama at Jordan-Hare Stadium, but over the past five years the series has been entirely lopsided except for the Tigers’ epic second-half comeback in 2010. When Will We Know? If history is any indication, by the time the SEC Championship Game concludes. Though there are several teams nationally – Oregon, Ohio State and Stanford, to name a few – that would be amazing to watch play the Crimson Tide in the BCS National Championship Game.