What We Know – Vanderbilt
Sep 08, 2012; Evanston, IL, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores wide receiver Jordan Matthews (87) makes a catch over Northwestern Wildcats cornerback Demetrius Dugar (22) during the second quarter at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Over the next few weeks, we will start taking a look at the SEC teams and discuss the apparent strengths and weaknesses of them as the 2013 season nears.
The idea is to identify what we “know” – as much as we can “know” anything about a season that has yet to start. We will also examine what we think we know, what we don’t know and when we might have answers to the biggest questions.
Vanderbilt Commodores
What We Know
WR Jordan Matthews will be one of the best in the SEC, but the team will sorely miss fellow WR Chris Boyd – Nobody questions Matthews’ credentials a year after he caught 94 passes for 1,323 yards and 8 TDs. Many were surprised he decided to return for his senior season. Having weapons like Matthews sure makes breaking in a first-year quarterback easier. The new problem is that the Commodores were supposed to have two such weapons – with Boyd being the other. Instead, Boyd has been suspended (with no timetable) after being charged as an accessory after the fact in the Vanderbilt rape case that left four players dismissed from the team and facing felonious charges. With Boyd, the Commodores boast one of the best receiving tandems in the SEC – and arguably all of college football. Without him, RB Wesley Tate is now the second-leading receiver from last year. Tate caught 12 passes. The aforementioned first-year quarterback, Austyn Carta-Samuels, told The Tennesseean on Saturday that answering how Boyd’s loss might affect him would be “a difficult question for me to answer.”
What We Think We Know
Behind players like T Wesley Johnson, Vanderbilt should be one of the best teams at gaining the tough yards – A four-year starter and preseason all-SEC pick, Johnson is one of the stars of an offensive line that has given coach James Franklin’s team the personification he wanted – a physical, hard-nosed bunch. Johnson has never been flagged for a holding penalty in his collegiate career and is a primary reason why the team is able to flourish in short-yardage situations. For Vanderbilt to be successful again in 2013, it will need to out-work opponents for a third consecutive season. That’s because, as great as Franklin has been through his first two seasons, the Commodores still aren’t going to out-talent many teams in the conference. In addition to Johnson, incumbents C Joe Townsend and T Andrew Bridges also return. This group, will, however, miss OL Ryan Seymour, who played all over the line just last season. Carta-Samuels gives the Commodores a capable runner at quarterback, which should help in the third-and-short situations. RB Wesley Tate is already proven as a powerful back who simply didn’t get the number of opportunities he might have otherwise gotten because he was behind Zac Stacy, the program’s all-time leading rusher.
The Commodores will boast an outstanding linebackers corps – Perhaps nobody better captured Vanderbilt’s overachieving, where-did-that-come-from traits better than LB Chase Garnham. Fittingly, Garnham played a significant role in the Commodores earning their first nine-win season since Woodrow Wilson was president. Garnham led the team in sacks and TFLs and returns with a year of middle linebacker experience from which he can learn and improve. Karl Butler, who is really more of a Star than a LB, returns though he has missed some practice time in August with an unknown injury. Even LB Darreon Herring – the lone new starter – played quite a bit as a true freshman and should be prepared to simply step into the mix and contribute. SB Nation’s Bill Connelly even goes so far as to say Vandy’s linebackers might be the most underrated in college football.
What We Don’t Know
Will QB1 Austyn Carta-Samuels keep the offense humming along? – Carta-Samuels’ career has taken an interesting path to get to him starting his senior season for an SEC program. He started that path at Wyoming, where he was named the 2009 Mountain West Freshman of the Year. During his two seasons with the Cowboys, Carta-Samuels threw for 3,655 yards and rushed for 758 more – showing playmaking skills with both his feet and arm. However, Brett Smith came in and wrestled the starting position away from Carta-Samuels after up-and-down play during his sophomore season. With Smith being a freshman, Carta-Samuels thought it best to leave Wyoming in search of more playing time. He served as Jordan Rodgers’ backup in 2012, starting the Presbyterian game and leading the Commodores to an easy victory. Now he will run the show all season. There’s no doubting that Carta-Samuels has the tools and ability to maintain Vanderbilt’s run. The question is will he do it with the lights on? When Will We Know? The opener against Ole Miss – in Nashville – certainly serves as a great sample. We will know significantly more, though, after the Sept. 14 game at South Carolina. Playing against an elite defense – especially one featuring DE Jadeveon Clowney – tends to show what quarterbacks are made of.
Can the interior defensive linemen match the skill and production of the ends? – Those paying attention already know DE Walker May’s name. He has a couple of potential outstanding position mates in DEs Kyle Woestmann and Caleb Azubike. The ends aren’t at question here, but rather the two new starters in the middle of the line. DT Vince Taylor seems the most logical choice to get a starting nod, though relative unknowns and just about any big body with a pulse could get a shot considering the lack of depth. Earlier this week, converted redshirt freshman offensive lineman Adam Butler was working at the other tackle spot with the first-team defense. DT Jared Morse – a 2012 starter – missed spring practice while serving a suspension, but is back with the team and trying to retain his position by beating out Butler. Barron Dixon is another option. Look for the Commodores to find opportunities to get all three pass-rush specialists on the field at the same time a la the NFL’s New York Giants. When Will We Know? As good as Ole Miss was offensively a year ago, it was not known for its ability to pound the ball directly at opponents. South Carolina has shown a more physical offensive approach. That will be a good early test, but with so many soft games in September, the answer might not really be known until the end of October when the Commodores face Georgia and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks.
How long can Vanderbilt continue playing above traditional expectations? – Nobody is denying what a tremendous job Franklin has done in selling his program or changing its culture. At the same time, this is Vanderbilt. The same Vanderbilt that fellow SEC teams circled for homecoming games for decades. Last year proved to be the best yet in recent memory for the Commodores, with the program winning nine games, including the Music City Bowl. That means the next step is a 10-win Vanderbilt team that flirts with division titles and BCS bowl games. It’s worth remembering that expectations are high everywhere in the SEC. Of the three teams that finished below the Commodores in the East, two – Kentucky and Tennessee – fired and hired new coaches. The other, Missouri, is thought to have coach Gary Pinkel on the hot seat to open the 2013 campaign. Franklin has done a great job, but Kentucky and Tennessee could both be back on the rise. If that happens, how long can Vandy hold on as a program capable of winning nine games? When Will We Know? This question could take more than a season to answer, but in the one-year time period, the opener against Ole Miss will give us a quick measurement. The better answer will come on Oct. 5 when the Commodores host Missouri in what might be a make-of-break game for Pinkel.