One Mississippi Two Mississippi? SEC West Dominates Vegas Spreads and Advice Week 6
By Jerry Levi
Saturday Blitz Vegas Spreads and Advice Week 6
There should be a variety of reasons as to why you NEED to stick with the Blitz this week for your Vegas plays as we give our Vegas Spreads and Advice for Week 6, but there’s really only one. Was it the 1-3 start to the week and the disastrous Thursday and Friday night plays? No. How about the Saturday morning redemption pick of Wyoming +31 that saw the Spartans of Michigan State run rough shod all over that Undervalued Dog, covering fairly easily? No. How about from a 1-3 start the Blitz went 6-0 the rest of the day, hitting on Both Saturday Afternoon Winners, The PrimeTime Pick, and a perfect Miscellaneous week of 4-0? Now we’re talking. A 6-0 streak. The hot hand. Last week 7-3. 14-11 total. And with the best games of the year this coming Saturday, there were a number of plays that just stood out for us. Many of them are due to the awesome slate of SEC games this Saturday. And by the way, we’ve decided that for the time being, Thursday and Friday Night Value Plays are sucker bets. Just saying…
Saturday Morning Winners
6 Texas A&M at 12 Mississippi State
Looking at the line on this one that just came out, I was surprised that it was deemed to be a close one. Texas A&M came off a dramatic come from behind victory in Dallas against the Arkansas Razorbacks in overtime yet failed to cover the (-9) that was bestowed upon them. Mississippi State on the other hand, had the week off to get them ready for the Aggies after they beat LSU in Baton Rouge 34-29 as (+9) underdogs. This is a morning kick and opened at Miss. State as (-1) favorites. I like the Bulldogs to be able to do what the Razorbacks couldn’t, which is when they’ve got A&M down, to go for the throat. This Mississippi State team is for real. And at -1 at home against what I believe is an overrated Texas A&M team, it’ll show through by at least 10 points.
The Pick?
Mississippi State(-1)
Florida at Tennessee
Somebody might be in the process of getting some moving boxes in order this week just in case. That somebody is Will Muschamp, the Florida Gators coach. After coming off a horrible 2013 season, they had nowhere to go but up in terms of 2014 expectations. Although the Gators have lost just once to a great Alabama team, they’ve looked less than impressive in winning at home against Kentucky, in which it took 3 OT’s to do so. On the orange side of the ball is a young Tennessee team that is looking for a great victory at home. They looked decent and held their own versus the likes of Oklahoma on the road, and even took Georgia down to the wire last week in Athens as (+17) underdogs, losing 35-32 but covering easily and even being ahead early 10-0. The inexperience will start to shed with these Volunteers as they lose and learn but keep ballgames close. What better way to signify the resurgence by a walloping of the Gators at home by 10 or more points?
The Pick?
Tennessee (-2)
Undervalued Dog
Wake Forest at 1 Florida State
I will be the first to tell you that Wake Forest isn’t a great football team. At 2-3 on the year, the highlight of the Demon Deacon’s season is a win against Army. They have losses against Utah State, UL-Monroe, and Louisville all on the road. But the most telling and most intriguing stat of those losses is last Saturday Wake Forest was a (+21.5) underdog at Louisville and lost 20-10, covering by 11.5 points. Do they have what it takes to keep it close in Tallahassee? Wake Forest opened up as (+38) point underdogs and that number has gone up as high as (+40) with many handicappers thinking that this is exactly what the Seminoles need at home: A blowout win by 7 or more TD’s. Here’s the absolute most telling stat that will have you placing the coin at the window on the Demon Deacons. The Seminoles have yet to cover the spread this year. They’re 0-4. (-18) point favorites vs. Oklahoma State, FSU won by 6. 42 point faves at home vs. The Citadel, they win 37-12. Clemson and NC State, FSU was double digit favorites in both, yet scraped by. Many think that this will be their breakout game and they will win but the number is somewhere in the 28 to 32 point range, yet people love to part with their money and place it on the Noles. Oh yeah, 0-4 ATS this year. Wake up to Wake and lay it on them to cover but wait until that number reaches +40 or +41 late cause someone will come along and lay heavy on FSU, sending the number even higher.
The Pick?
Wake Forest (+39)
Afternoon Winner
14 Stanford at 9 Notre Dame
I actually had to check two different websites just to make sure my eyes weren’t deceiving me. Game is in South Bend, Indiana, check. Stanford is ranked 14 and Notre Dame is ranked 9, check. Stanford has one loss and Notre Dame is undefeated and looked decent last week in primetime against Syracuse, covering the (-11.5) bestowed upon them, check. Stanford is a (-2) point favorite on the road against Notre Dame…check. Wait. Check again. Yep you’re reading that right. Apparently there is no love coming from Vegas on the Irish. This matchup actually opened at Pickem and escalated quickly to the Cardinal to the tune of (-2). Yes Stanford should be undefeated but let’s not get carried away here. A Top Ten undefeated team at home is the underdog. Here’s the dealy yo. If Stanford wins, they’re going to win by 10 to 17 points, this is what Vegas is saying, that there are holes in the Irish. If Notre Dame wins, they’ll do so by 4 to 7 points, grounding and pounding their way to victory. I look at that Stanford USC matchup where the Cardinal just couldn’t convert in the red zone. Sure they’ve learned from that but will it still haunt them?
The Pick?
Notre Dame (+2)
PrimeTime Pick
19 Nebraska at 10 Michigan State
Michigan State has just been lighting up opposing defenses in the 1st half of games, torching them by at least 2 to 3 touchdowns by the end of the 2nd quarter. The total points in the Over/Under for last week’s Wyoming home game was for a total of 48 points for the entire game. Michigan State scored 42 of that by halftime and relegating themselves to just 14 in the second. I see the Spartans getting to a fast start once again, only this time to an undefeated Nebraska team ready for their second conference game. Will the Huskers D be ready for that Sparty offense led by QB Connor Cook? This line opened at (-9.5) in Michigan State’s favor and quickly went Nebraska’s way, coming down to (-7.5). If that’s the case, take the explosive State and the points in the 1st half. But if Nebraska can keep it close in the 2nd half, which they are known to turn on the jets after half this season, watch out Sparty, and watch out Final Four Playoff…maybe. Okay maybe not, this is the Big Ten.
The Pick?
Michigan State First Half (-4)
Upset Special of the Week
3 Alabama at 11 Ole Miss
Now that we’re going to be deep into conference play from here on out, we’re going to have an Upset Special every once in a while on a game that just stands out, no matter the spread on the game. It could be a rivalry or a lower ranked team traveling to an extremely hostile environment and that’s exactly what we have this week in Alabama at Ole Miss. Gameday is going to be at Oxford and the Rebels are primed for this. If they win, it’ll be the biggest win in school history, hands down. Do they have the horses to compete? Is this a downturn year for Alabama and would a loss prove that? The line for this game started at (-5.5) for the Tide and has risen to about (-7) with heavy money being put on the road team. If there ever was a time for Ole Miss to win, this would be their year. The crowd, the optimism, and the team all points to not only the Rebs covering the (+7) but winning outright.
The Pick? Ole Miss Money Line (+265)
Miscellaneous
Baylor (-7) at Texas
Kansas at West Virginia Over 54.5
LSU (+8.5) at Auburn
Utah (+13) at UCLA