College Football Playoff Projections Week 10: Multiple SEC Teams?

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Nov 1, 2014; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks wide receiver Darren Carrington (87) celebrates a touchdown with Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Hamani Stevens (54) against the Stanford Cardinal at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Teams that Have a Chance at the College Football Playoff but Need Help

1. Oregon Ducks, 8-1

The Oregon Ducks are definitely one of the top teams looking in right now at the College Football Playoff, but they still aren’t in control of their own destiny. Fortunately, that will only take on of any number of things, assuming they win out. A Florida State loss, all but one SEC team having 2 losses, or all Big 12 teams having 2 losses. Any of those things are very plausible to put this team back in the discussion. So they top our list of these teams this week.

2. Arizona State Sun Devils, 7-1 

If the Ducks are going to be in control of their own destiny, we have to put in another Pac-12 team that could be them. For Arizona State, it currently would take one of the same scenarios as it would take for Oregon to be back in control of their own destiny. This team certainly has a chance to prove itself. And if it can win out and win the Pac-12 championship, it will have a very strong case to be one of those Top 5 teams.

3. TCU Horned Frogs, 7-1

We know these guys are atop the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings right now. But our projections have them losing more games, which is why we dropped them down. And they still don’t control their own destiny for a Big 12 title. TCU needs one simple thing for that to happen and to get right back in the national title hunt: a Baylor loss. If Baylor loses, TCU simply has to win out. And with Oklahoma and Kansas State still on Baylor’s schedule, it’s still a strong possibility.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 7-1

While the top Pac-12 schools need one of three scenarios to work and TCU needs one specific scenario, the Fighting Irish need two out of three scenarios to work out. The Irish won’t be bumped ahead of Florida State unless they lose 2 games, which is not happening. So that’s not a scenario we’re even considering. Of the other things that have to happen, like the Pac-12, all of the Big 12 teams have to reach 2 losses. That’s a possibility. But then, either Oregon has to lose another game or all but one SEC team has to have 2 losses. These things are possible but highly unlikely. Fortunately, Notre Dame gets a bit of a break with a chance to knock off Arizona State themselves.

5. Michigan State Spartans, Ohio State Buckeyes, Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1, 7-1, 8-1)

As we’ve said all year, a 1-loss Big Ten team still needs a ton of help to get to the College Football Playoff. All three of these teams control their own destiny for a Big 12 title, and they are all 1-loss teams. So for any of them to have a chance, they first have to win out. Then, they would need three of five scenarios to play out. A Florida State loss, no Pac-12 team with less than a loss, no Big 12 team with less than a loss, no less than one SEC team with less than a loss, and another Notre Dame loss. If three of those five things happen, any of these teams has a chance at the College Football Playoff if they win out. But it will take a lot.

Ranking the Other FBS Teams that Still Have a Very Slim Chance at the College Football Playoff

1. LSU Tigers, 7-2

2. Ole Miss Rebels, 7-2

3. Oklahoma Sooners, 6-2

4. UCLA Bruins, 7-2

5. Utah Utes, 6-2

6. Arizona Wildcats, 6-2

7. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-2

8. Missouri Tigers, 7-2

9. Duke Blue Devils, 7-1

10. Marshall Thundering Herd, 8-0