College Football Playoff Projections Week 13: Back to Two SEC Teams?

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Nov 15, 2014; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Landon Collins (26) celebrates with teammates after intercepting the ball on a pass thrown by Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott (not pictured) in the fourth quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

This one is a good bit obvious. The Alabama Crimson Tide are already No. 1 in the eyes of the Selection Committee, and if they win out, it will mean beating Auburn and then a Top 25 team in the SEC Championship game. That resume will be far too much for any team to surpass them with, even an undefeated Florida State Seminoles football team. So we are going to have the Tide at No. 1 in our projections this week because they still have a tough road to the SEC Championship.

2. Oregon Ducks

If Oregon were to win out, they might fall below one of the Top 2 spots in the next two weeks because their schedule includes Colorado and Oregon State. But winning the Pac-12 Championship game likely means beating a 2-loss team, and that means bumping the Ducks back up into the No. 2 spot. They have played a very impressive schedule up to this points, and the Selection Committee has already shown that it puts too much emphasis on style points. And we all know that Oregon is a natural team when it comes to winning with style.

3. Florida State Seminoles

If Florida State were to win out, they would drop below different teams at different points. But they are No. 3 right now in the Selection Committee’s rankings, and it’s hard to see how they would ever jump above that. The Seminoles play a worse schedule than the Oregon Ducks or Alabama Crimson Tide the rest of the way, and their only chance to impress anybody is in the ACC Championship game, which would come against Duke or Georgia Tech. Neither game is likely to impress the pollsters, so they’re probably stuck at No. 3 for now.

4. Mississippi State Bulldogs

That’s right. At this point, our College Football Playoff projections are exactly the same as what the Selection Committee has right now. And we have our reasons for that. Should the Bulldogs win out, the only teams that would have a legitimate gripe over them would be Baylor and Ohio State if they win out because they both won their conference. But the resume that the Bulldogs have is incredible, and they have a chance to add to it at the end of the season with a huge game against Ole Miss. If they win that one on the road, nobody will be able to overlook them, and without winning the SEC, they’ll sneak into that Top 4.

Next: Projected Bowl Pairings