College Football Playoff Projections Week 14: Did Mississippi State Stay In?
Nov 22, 2014; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott (l) and tight end Jeff Heuerman (r) celebrate with running back Jalin Marshall (17) after Marshall scored against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won the game 42-27. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
One-Loss Teams Still In the College Football Playoff Race
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Right now, we have the Buckeyes ranked last in our Top 25 among the one-loss Power Five teams due to schedule strength. But only TCU has the schedule strength advantage, and as we bumped TCU over the Buckeyes, we were forced to bump up the Bears due to head-to-head. TCU’s games to close out the season will hurt their strength of schedule, and although Michigan will hurt Ohio State this weekend, whomever they play in the Big Ten Championship is likely to bump them ahead of the Horned Frogs in schedule strength. So we have them as the top one-loss team due to that. And all they need is for any of those other Top 4 teams to lose. It may not be as easy as it sounds, but Ohio State will get in with one of those teams losing over anybody else.
2. Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears are obviously in perfect position to win the Big 12, as they control their own destiny. And with Kansas State coming up, they have a great chance to improve their schedule strength. But for them to get into the Top 4, they need two losses to happen among Ohio State and our projected Top 4. But even then, it won’t be as simple. If both SEC teams lose, it could be rendered irrelevant because, let’s face it, even with 2 losses, an SEC team is going to the College Football Playoff. Therefore, with the Bears’ strength of schedule, they need one of those teams to lose and either Florida State, Oregon, or Ohio State to lose. But of the combination of two teams losing, it can’t be two SEC teams. It can barely be Oregon, because you have a case for two-loss UCLA getting in over the Bears. More on that later.
3. TCU Horned Frogs
TCU needs a little less than Baylor, honestly, to get into the College Football Playoff if you take away the fact that Baylor has to lose. But you can’t take away that fact. The Horned Frogs can’t leapfrog Baylor in the final rankings when the Bears have the same record, own the head-to-head, and win the conference. It would just look wrong. After that, they would need exactly what Baylor needs, but the biggest difference is that a 2-loss Pac-12 team wouldn’t have a case to jump them. Still, the Horned Frogs need a lot of help to get into the College Football Playoff, and in many cases, there are some two-loss teams that have more control of their own destiny than these guys. Let’s move onto those teams.
Next: Two-Loss Teams Still in the College Football Playoff Race