College Football Playoff Projections Week 15: Is Ohio State In? Which Two-Loss Teams Stand a Chance?

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Nov 29, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Baylor Bears running back Johnny Jefferson (2) and defensive end Shawn Oakman (2) celebrate the win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders at AT&T Stadium. The Bears defeated the Red Raiders 48-46. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Analyzing One-Loss Teams Still In the College Football Playoff Race

5. Baylor Bears, 10-1(7-1)

The Baylor Bears will once again this week remain the lowest-ranked one-loss Power Five team in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s Top 25 rankings this week. But that all changes finally if they keep pace this Saturday when they play the Kansas State Wildcats. Despite the well-deserved criticism for their strength of schedule, beating Kansas State would give Baylor three quality wins when you add TCU and Oklahoma, and there’s no way they could be below TCU when the two teams have the same record, play in the same conference, but Baylor beat TCU and won the conference, getting the head-to-head and conference championship tiebreaker. Still, they would not belong in the College Football Playoff after that, and the Selection Committee knows that, given their strength of schedule unless one of the Top Four loses.

6. TCU Horned Frogs, 10-1 (7-1)

TCU will still remain in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s Top 4 this week. But playing Iowa State after playing Texas and Kansas will make for three very weak games they have played, while Baylor gets to play Kansas State. That would close the gap in their strength of schedule and force the Selection Committee to vault Baylor over TCU. Meanwhile, neither team would have the strength of schedule that the other Top 4 teams have, so the Big 12 would simply have to be left out, despite TCU’s quality wins against Minnesota and Kansas State. The message is clear for TCU. They have to win on Saturday, obviously, and Baylor has to lose in addition to one of the Top 4 teams. If not, they likely have no shot at the College Football Playoff. And if they don’t like it, well, they shouldn’t have blown a 21-point lead to Baylor in the fourth quarter earlier this year.

Next: Two-Loss Teams Still in the College Football Playoff Race