College Football Playoff: Will the SEC be left out?

While SEC fans continue to wonder how two SEC teams can make the College Football Playoff, the rest of the country is doing their part to ensure that the SEC is on the outside looking in.

Spoiler alert: The SEC very easily could miss the Playoff. After a seven-year streak of an SEC team being the national champion, the conference has spent the past two seasons watching teams from other conferences win championships.

Much of the offseason has been spent discussing what SEC teams need to do to start a new SEC championship streak. However, the elephant in the room (not a reference to Alabama) is that the SEC is in danger of completely being left out of the 2015 College Football Playoff altogether.

This is not hyperbole and we’ll move our way from a broad analysis of the situation into a detailed look at the SEC . The first thing you notice is pure mathematics. There are five major conferences as well as Independents such as Notre Dame as well as smaller conferences. The College Football Playoff is awarded to just four teams each year. At least, one of the five-power conference teams is going to be left out as we saw with the Big XII last season.

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If Notre Dame were to be in the playoff picture or an impressive group of five team runs the table, you are looking at five conferences fighting for a remaining three spots. Imagining a scenario where the SEC is left out is not difficult. One of the reasons is the SEC West.

There are two key factors at play in the SEC West that greatly affects the entire conference. One is the narrative that is recited a lot about the strength of the conference. Which I do think is true. The SEC West is one of the most difficult conferences to play in. The second reason is parity. To me, it is the current parity of the division that hurts the conference’s chances at going to the playoff. It is important to not confuse the term parity with average.

What I mean by parity is, as we approach the 2015 season, there is no SEC West team that appears to be greatly superior to the other teams in the division. Alabama is typically that team, but I do not believe that to be the case this season. With most if not all the West teams playing at the same level, it is easy to imagine the top team in the division going 10-2. Even if the team heads to Atlanta and wins the conference the SEC will find itself in a difficult position should this play out.

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The playoff selection committee would be faced with the task of comparing a two-loss SEC champion with the winners of four other conferences. It is probable that those other conference champions will either be undefeated or have one loss. The one feather in the SEC’s cap is strength of schedule or as the committee so often said last season its “body of work.”

That said, let’s say both the Big Ten and ACC have undefeated champions. For the sake of clarity, we will say these teams are Ohio State and Florida State. The committee decides those are the top two teams in the country. The Pac-12 and Big XII both have champions with one loss. Now, the committee is forced to compare a two-loss SEC champion with the one-loss champions of those two conferences.

If we put our sweet tea colored glasses aside, you can see that the SEC would find itself at the mercy of the committee. A committee that depending on how the season plays out could easily make the case for putting the Pac-12 and Big XII champions in the playoff.

Recently, the writers here at Saturday Blitz made our predictions for how we see the College Football Playoff playing out. My SEC pick was Ole Miss who I have making the final group of four teams. Ole Miss could easily drop a game or two in November when they hit the tough part of the schedule. You can insert LSU, Alabama or Auburn in my scenario if you are not sold on Ole Miss. You will not be hard pressed to find two losses on their schedule either.

The SEC’s best chance of making the College Football Playoff lies in the SEC East. While the division has challenges of its own, the path to an undefeated or one-loss season seems to be a bit easier than it is in the West. Georgia, Tennessee or Missouri may have the best chance of keeping the SEC in the championship hunt just by the path of least resistance.

Will the SEC be left out of the College Football Playoff? Who knows, but instead of arguing how two SEC teams will make the playoff or how the SEC can win a championship, fans should focus on an SEC team making the College Football Playoff. If not, fans might be in for a rude awakening in early December when the conference is not selected by the selection committee.

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