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College Football Picks: SEC predictions against the spread for Week 5

By Nicholas Ian Allen

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Sep 26, 2015; Syracuse, NY, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) scores a touchdown after braking a tackle by Syracuse Orange cornerback Wayne Morgan (2) during the first quarter in a game at the Carrier Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

  • Date: Saturday October 3, 2015
  • Time: 7PM Eastern
  • Location: Baton Rouge, LA
  • TV Channel: ESPNU
  • Spread: LSU -44.5
  • Over/Under Total: 58.5

Through the first four weeks of the 2015 college football season, LSU has proven itself to be one of the best teams in the nation. Eastern Michigan has not.

The Tigers, 3-0 after the cancellation of their Week 1 game against McNeese State, have been largely impressive in victories over quality opponents Mississippi State, Auburn and Syracuse. The Eagles have won a game – 48-29 over Wyoming – but have lost to Old Dominion, Ball State and Army.

There has been a lot of talk this week on the topic of whether or not LSU sophomore running back Leonard Fournette should sit out his junior in anticipation of the NFL Draft. Fournette has 631 rushing yards, which ranks third nationally and just 44 yards behind Indiana’s Jordan Howard despite playing one fewer game, and eight touchdowns so far this season, and is averaging 8.6 yards per carry, making him one of the early Heisman favorites.

Eastern Michigan also has some weapons on offense – the Eagles are averaging 33.8 points and 435.5 yards per game this season – but are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. In fact, EMU has the worst rush defense in the FBS, having allowed 373.2 rushing yards per game this season. That spells disaster for a bad MAC team trying to do something that three Power Five opponents have failed to do – stop Fournette.

However, there is one thing that could keep Fournette in check: the scoreboard. As a 44.5-point favorite, LSU is expected to open a big lead early, and with conference games against South Carolina and Florida coming up over the following two weeks, that means Fournette is likely to spend much of the second half on the bench.

That, as well as the likelihood that LSU’s pro-style offense will work at a methodical pace in the second half, is a good reason to take the Eagles to cover.

Next: Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee

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