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College Football Picks: SEC predictions against the spread for Week 5

By Nicholas Ian Allen

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Sep 26, 2015; Oxford, MS, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores wide receiver Caleb Scott (9) carries the ball against Mississippi Rebels defensive back Kailo Moore (13) and defensive tackle Ross Donelly (91) during the game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

  • Date: Saturday October 3, 2015
  • Time: 7PM Eastern
  • Location: Murfreesboro, TN
  • TV Channel: CBS College Sports Network
  • Spread: Middle Tennessee -1
  • Over/Under Total: 50.5

One of the trickiest games of the week is Vanderbilt’s short trip to Middle Tennessee to take on the Blue Raiders from Conference USA. The decision to play a Group of Five opponent on the road is a curious one, but because Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro is just 40 miles from Vanderbilt Stadium, the game day preparations are likely to be almost exactly the same for the Commodores as they would be for a home game: same hotel, same pre-game meal, just a slightly longer bus ride to the game itself.

And, it’s not like Middle Tennessee will have a huge home field advantage because of crowd size or noise: the Blue Raiders averaged 17,395 in attendance last season, and are sure to have plenty of Vanderbilt fans in the stands this week.

But, this is still a very tricky game because Middle Tennessee has played very well this season. The Blue Raiders are 2-2 and scored more than 70 points in both victories. They played Alabama tough in the first half before losing 37-10 in Week 2, and nearly upset Illinois last week. Middle Tennessee has rolled up 476.8 yards per game this season, and freshman quarterback Brent Stockstill has completed 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards (which ranks No. 12 nationally) and 12 touchdowns (No. 5) with just two interceptions.

However, Vanderbilt has looked better and better every week, especially on the defensive side of the football. The Commodores have limited high-powered offenses WKU, Georgia and Ole Miss (who have averaged a combined 45.3 points per game this season) to 19.3 points per contest when you take out the special teams and defensive touchdown the Bulldogs scored in Week 2. Vanderbilt is also gaining confidence on offense by averaging 412 total yards and not turning the football over last week against the Rebels in a 27-16 loss – a game that was tied at halftime.

The game is a coin flip, but given the improvement we’ve seen from Vandy in recent weeks, in addition to the fact that the Commodores are more talented and aren’t playing far from home, take Vandy.

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